2020-2021 NBA Standings and Playoff Predictions

We have reached the final stage of my preseason blog trilogy:  my predictions for this season's standings and playoffs.  This post includes the standings, my playoff predictions, and a more in depth look at each team.

My predictions for the rankings can fluctuate a bit.  For reference, I accurately predicted each playoff team in the East last year, but I had the Thunder finishing 14th (they finished 5th), so there were some that were wrong on that end.  This season, the 7-10 seeds of each conference, will compete in a play-in game.  I feel confident about 7 teams in the East that I expect to make the playoffs and 6 in the West, but outside of expecting the top team in the West, I'm not confident in exact positions so long as James Harden remains in Houston.  I also have no idea what will happen with Covid-19.

Without further ado, here is my final set of preseason predictions.

 

Standings

East

1. Milwaukee Bucks
2. Miami Heat
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Boston Celtics
5. Philadelphia 76ers
6. Toronto Raptors
7. Indiana Pacers
8. Atlanta Hawks
9. Washington Wizards
10. Charlotte Hornets
11. Chicago Bulls
12. Orlando Magic
13. Detroit Pistons
14. New York Knicks
15. Cleveland Cavaliers

West

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. Denver Nuggets
3. Los Angeles Clippers
4. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Utah Jazz
6. Phoenix Suns
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Golden State Warriors
9. New Orleans Pelicans
10. Memphis Grizzlies
11. Houston Rockets
12. Sacramento Kings
13. San Antonio Spurs
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
15. Oklahoma City Thunder

 

 

Playoffs:

Play-In Tournaments

Charlotte Hornets (10) at Indiana Pacers (7):  Charlotte wins Game 1, Indiana wins Game 2

Washington Wizards (9) at Atlanta Hawks (8):  Washington wins Game 1, Atlanta wins Game 2

Memphis Grizzlies (10) at Dallas Mavericks (7):  Dallas wins Game 1

New Orleans Pelicans (9) at Golden State Warriors (8):  Golden State wins Game 1

Round 1:

Atlanta Hawks (8) at Milwaukee Bucks (1):  Milwaukee wins 4-1

Philadelphia 76ers (5) at Boston Celtics (4):  Boston wins 4-2

Indiana Pacers (7) at Miami Heat (2):  Miami wins 4-2

Toronto Raptors (6) at Brooklyn Nets (3):  Brooklyn wins 4-3

Golden State Warriors (8) at Los Angeles Lakers (1):  Los Angeles wins 4-2

Utah Jazz (5) at Portland Trail Blazers (4):  Portland wins 4-1

Dallas Mavericks (7) at Denver Nuggets (2):  Denver wins 4-3

Phoenix Suns (6) at Los Angeles Clippers (3):  Los Angeles wins 4-2

 

Conference Semifinals:

Boston Celtics (4) at Milwaukee Bucks (1):  Milwaukee wins 4-3

Brooklyn Nets (3) at Miami Heat (2):  Brooklyn wins 4-3

Portland Trail Blazers (4) at Los Angeles Lakers (1):  Los Angeles wins 4-2

Los Angeles Clippers (3) at Denver Nuggets (2):  Los Angeles wins 4-3

 

Conference Finals:

Brooklyn Nets (3) at Milwaukee Bucks (1):  Milwaukee wins 4-2

Los Angeles Clippers (3) at Los Angeles Lakers (1):  Lakers win 4-1

 

NBA Finals:

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (1):  Lakers win 4-2

 

 

My Analysis about Each Team

East

Milwaukee Bucks

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo is obviously a superstar; do the moves this offseason guarantee a better playoff run?  If they had obtained Bogdan Bogdanovic the answer would be clearer.
2. I love the trade for Jrue Holiday.  I know they gave up a lot, but I think Eric Bledsoe is not the player off the ball that needs to play alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo.
3. Their depth really took a hit this year.  They will probably lose some of their offense from previous years.  Bryn Forbes, Bobby Portis, and D.J. Augustin will be valuable in that regard.
4. I expect Donte DiVincenzo will join Giannis, Khris Middleton, Holiday, and Brook Lopez in the starting lineup.  I think he’ll fit well with that group; he’s a really good defender.  That starting lineup will be potent defensively and fun to watch.
5. I like the signing of Torrey Craig; he will give them more defensive flexibility given his versatility.  I feel comfortable having him guard anywhere from the 3-5 and I think he can defend larger guards in a pinch.
6. I think that Middleton and Holiday might each take a slightly smaller volume of shots, but I think they will pair really well with each other.  I think Holiday’s shooting is a bit overstated, so Middleton can make up for any issues in that regard.
7. I hope we see a lineup of Giannis, Holiday, Lopez, DiVincenzo, and Craig at some point; while Middleton is a good defender, Craig is great.  That would be tough to score on.
8. They need Brook Lopez to shoot better from 3 than he did last year.  He is smart about his shot selection, but it isn’t guaranteed that he should be playing crunch time if he keeps missing deep shots.
9. Bryn Forbes is an underrated shooter.  If they need a bucket late in the game, he should be on the court; I might consider him the best shooter on the team right now.
10. This team is championship or bust.  Ultimately, this team’s offseason was a success because Giannis is signed long-term.  However, I’m not quite sure that I feel comfortable declaring them the favorite to get out of the East.

Miami Heat

1. There are questions regarding this team and whether the Bubble was a fluke.  It wasn’t; all it took was them getting the right matchups, a couple players playing well, and them playing hard.  That can continue this season.
2. I’m not sure what their starting or end game lineup is.  Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are in both, but the other spots are up in the air.  For starting, either Goran Dragic or Kendrick Nunn will get one, Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson will get another, and the final one will likely either be Moe Harkless, Kelly Olynyk, or Meyers Leonard.  The end game lineup will likely feature Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Robinson, and Nunn/Dragic.
3. Butler really is the perfect star for this team.  He is a guy that is a no-nonsense leader who wants to win, and Pat Riley constructed a team full of these kinds of guys.
4. Adebayo really thrived in the expanded role last season.  I thought he would be good, but I didn’t expect his playmaking and defense to be this good so quickly.
5. I think Herro and Robinson will frequently play like they did in the Bubble; they will have games where they can make everything and look like stars and have other games where they miss everything.  That said, they are fearless and so confident.
6. Losing Jae Crowder and Derrick Jones Jr. stinks but retaining Dragic and Leonard and signing Harkless and Avery Bradley were some good moves.
7. I was surprised by the draft selection of Precious Achiuwa.  He is a freak athlete and plays hard, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to play alongside Adebayo.  That said, I also thought Adebayo was a strange fit in 2017 given Hassan Whiteside’s presence…oops.
8. Dragic was essential in the Bubble given Nunn’s struggles upon recovering from Covid-19.  I don’t even consider it too out of the norm for him, so this could be a dangerous duo at guard if Nunn plays how he did in the regular season.
9. Their defense is so good again.  Adebayo, Butler, Bradley, Iguodala, and Harkless are all great defenders, and several other guys on their lineup can hold their own as well.
10. This team could finish as high as 1^st and finish as low as 5^th or 6^th.  I think 2^nd feels right, but they might dip a bit if things don’t go right for them.

Brooklyn Nets

1. This team has the potential to win the East, but the regular season will be an exercise in load management, ironing chemistry, determining roles, and improving their defense.  They could fair better in the playoffs, but this is not a regular season team.
2. I’m not sure what Kevin Durant will be this season.  While I expect he will be talented and I’m not too worried about his athleticism overall, I don’t what his durability will be.  Adding Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert’s injury history makes this even more concerning.
3. This team will likely be bad defensively.  I don’t know what Durant will be able to do defensively after his injury and DeAndre Jordan hasn’t had the same motivation in recent years.  Irving, LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Joe Harris are all not particularly good defensively, and those 6 are the frontrunners to be in the starting lineup.
4. I’m surprised they didn’t trade Jarrett Allen yet.  I like him, but he’s eligible for an extension on his rookie deal, and Durant and Irving prefer Jordan.  He is a quality defensive player though who can really help this team with those deficiencies.
5. I think LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie will diminish in trade value as the season goes on and their lack of fit alongside Durant and Irving is exposed.  That said, they are still talented players.  They are aggressive offensively and can get some good looks or themselves, which is a nice thing to have in a team.
6. Resigning Harris was probably the most important deal of the offseason for the team.  He plays hard and is an elite shooter who has thrived in Brooklyn.
7. I thought trading for Landry Shamet was an incredible move.  He is a great shooter and a quality playmaker.  They didn’t have to give up much for him either.
8. Acquiring Bruce Brown might have been the most underrated move of the offseason.  He is a strong defender and I think he could get significant minutes of the bench.
9. Steve Nash might have one of the hardest jobs out of all the new coaches.  Durant and Irving are both volatile, but the amount of talent there is unreal.  I’m not as worried about chemistry issues as some are with this team, which will make Nash’s job a little easier.
10. I expect Irving and Durant to ease into the season a bit due to injuries, which will hurt the team early on.  I also fear their lack of defense.  That said, this team can be competitive in the playoffs.  Still, expect them to look for another star after a slow start.

Boston Celtics

1. Losing Gordon Hayward is going to hurt and have a substantial impact on this season.  That said, they could always use the trade exception to fulfill a weakness (or save it for next season in a sign-and-trade).
2. Kemba Walker is dealing with knee injuries to start the season.  Thankfully, Jeff Teague or Grant Williams can fill in to start the season, but that will really be difficult unless Teague has a career resurgence or Payton Pritchard shocks the world as a rookie.
3. Jayson Tatum played great last season after becoming more confident shooting behind the arc.  He also has developed into a stronger defender, which isn’t surprising to see.  He’s such a talented player; I bet he will continue to grow in that manner.
4. Jaylen Brown is one of the most underrated players in the league; I seriously think he will be in the running for an All Star spot this season.  He is one of the stronger defenders on the team and can do a lot offensively.  I think he still needs to take a leap regarding playmaking.
5. Marcus Smart is one of the best defenders in the guard position and has developed into a quality shooter as well.  His scoring numbers will likely rise.  He will probably get more opportunities as a playmaker, which can have benefits at times.
6. I think Teague will be a better fit as a bench scorer than Brad Wanamaker was; they need that after losing Hayward.  That said, Wanamaker is better defensively.
7. They will be relying on a lot of young players this year.  In particular, we could see big minutes from Grant Williams, Robert Williams, Semi Ojeleye, Carsen Edwards, Romeo Langford, and rookies Aaron Nesmith and Pritchard.
8. Drafting Nesmith and Pritchard are good choices.  Most of their bench struggled last year from behind the arc so these two should help immediately.
9. While I like the new center trio of Theis/Thompson/Robert Williams, I hope that Robert Williams gets more playing time.  He is a freak athlete, improving his defensive mindset, and is an improving passer.
10. If one of Tatum, Brown, Walker, or Smart are injured in the playoffs, there is little hope in them advancing.

Philadelphia 76ers

1. While the 76ers made moves that would be better for fit, I’m not sure if they made themselves a better team.  For instance, I’m not quite sure they’re better with Seth Curry instead of Josh Richardson.
2. Ben Simmons has developed into an elite defender, but his offensive game has not significantly improved since he arrived in the league.  While his game was strong upon entering the league, he hasn’t made significant improvement to it.
3. Joel Embiid is one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and engaged, the latter of which was an issue at times last year.  That said, I think it was more a case of him being frustrated and disheartened, and clearly showed in the playoffs.  This likely won’t be as much of an issue.
4. While Embiid largely avoided injuries last year, it is valuable to have an inexpensive backup in case he deals with anything.  Dwight Howard should be a good fit in the role.  He is still a quality defensive player who is good enough to start.
5. Tobias Harris is an incredibly underrated player at this point.  He is a little bit of a clunky fit at times, but he is a player who knows where he will make shots and is a good scorer.  I think the issue with him at this point is that he passes up open looks sometimes since he isn’t terribly confident in his 3, despite being a good shooter.
6. I worry a bit about their lack of playmakers.  After Simmons, they have rookie Tyrese Maxey, but if he struggles their next best bet might be Seth Curry.  They tried Shake Milton at the point last year, but he’s not a good enough playmaker.
7. Curry and Danny Green will give them some improved shooting.  I expect both to start, but I would prefer to see them start Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz instead; both are such talented players off the ball and are good shooters.  That said, Thybulle’s offensive game is limited and Korkmaz is very streaky and inconsistent.
8. I have no idea what Milton will be in the NBA.  I thought he was a guy who could score in flashes, but last year they tried him at point guard.  I always considered his ceiling to be more of a 6^th man shooting guard at best.
9. We’ll have to see if Doc Rivers is the right coach for this team.  He didn’t have the success that was hoped with the Clippers by the end, but I think he is a better coach than Brett Brown.
10. If Embiid or Simmons get injured, this team will struggle.  The issue is that they have frequently dealt with various injuries, so it could be a case of when they do instead.

Toronto Raptors

1. The most important more this offseason was to resign Fred VanVleet, and they delivered.  He is a strong defender and even better scorer.
2. What will Pascal Siakam look like as the lead scorer for the second attempt at it?  He needs to be better in the role for them to advance in the playoffs.  Maybe it could be him and VanVleet as a 1A and 1B instead.
3. Losing Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka is a tough blow, but they did well by signing Aron Baynes.  Expect Chris Boucher to play a larger role as well.
4. Every year I expect Kyle Lowry might take a step back and he continues to prove me wrong.  The only reason he might this year offensively is if VanVleet and OG Anunoby take large steps forward, but I refuse to make that prediction this year.
5. I expect a large jump from Anunoby.  He could be in the running for Most Improved Player even.  He’s a strong defender and has shown glimpses of offensive ability (Celtics fans can cite the Game 3 buzzer beater in round 2 last year).
6. I honestly believe that Norman Powell could be a frontrunner for 6^th Man of the Year.  He can defend enough and developed as a strong scorer.  The only thing that prevented him from being eligible last year was starting 1 too many games due to injuries.
7. After Siakam, VanVleet, Lowry, Anunoby, Powell, Baynes, and Boucher, their depth is a little thin.  Matt Thomas can play some and maybe rookie Malachi Flynn will do well, but they could be in trouble if they deal with the injuries they faced last season.
8. I think Flynn was such a good selection.  He’s a guard who shoots, sees the court, plays hard, and loves the game.  I was shocked he fell to them at 29 in the Draft.
9. Their defense should be fantastic again.  In the top 7 I mentioned above, there isn’t a bad defender in the group, and several are elite.  I could see multiple Raptors players being named to an All-NBA Defense team.
10. The biggest question I have is them not playing in Toronto.  If they can’t be in Toronto at the end of the season, will Tampa eventually wear on them?

Indiana Pacers

1. I have no idea what this lineup will look like by the end of the end of the season.  There have been trade rumors regarding Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner.
2. The fact that T.J. Warren is dealing with a foot injury he had last season and is week-to-week has cause for concern.  That said, they used something of a 3-headed monster for scoring last year and this year they’ll have Victor Oladipo.
3. What Oladipo looks like feels like the million-dollar question.  If he’s a star, this team will finish much higher, but otherwise this feels like their ceiling.  Pre-injury, he was a superstar defensively and one of the better offensive 2-guards in the league.  I don’t see his defense being quite as good though.
4. Domantas Sabonis is one of the best playmaking big men in the game, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given his last name.  However, the fit alongside Myles Turner has been clunky.  I think they can fit if Turner figures out what he is offensively.  They are both strong defensively, so I’ve never had any concerns on that end.
5. Malcolm Brogdon had an inconsistent year from behind the arc last year, but I think the return of Oladipo can change it.  I love Brogdon off the ball due to how much he can do off it, but he is also a solid playmaker.
6. Aaron Holiday has emerged into such a good shooter and overall player.  He was a bit polarizing when he was drafted, but he has developed into such a good player.  If anybody is injured, expect Holiday to slide into the starting lineup.
7. This bench has so much shooting.  Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott, and Jeremy Lamb (once he returns from injury) are all strong shooters.  I wonder if they would ever consider a small ball lineup of those four and a playmaker like T.J. McConnell, or even those four and Sabonis.
8. I hope Goga Bitadze gets more playing time this year but staggering the Sabonis/Turner minutes will likely be more of a priority.  I think Bitadze can be a strong offensive player in the paint and his defense was better as a rookie than I expected.
9. Myles Turner might be the most underrated defender in the league.  He is a premier shot blocker and paint protector.  I think that the only reason he hasn’t been traded yet is because some teams are turned off by the salary.
10. This team has a high ceiling if everybody is healthy and if everybody remains on the team.  I’m not as bullish on them as I am towards other teams in the conference.

Atlanta Hawks

1. This team had a busy offseason.  Ultimately, they acquired several guys who can be role players.  I don’t think they don’t have a player who will be a star outside of Trae Young, but it might have been financially responsible to pass on signing a guy like Gordon Hayward.
2. I did not expect Trae Young to be this good offensively before he got into the NBA.  I was nervous about him being drafted so high because I thought his size would limit him offensively and defensively.  I was wrong about the offense, but he is a bad defender.
3. I expected John Collins to be traded this offseason, but I’m not opposed to them keeping him.  He’s a good enough shooter to be a decent fit offensively with Clint Capela, but his defense will be rough.  He might be traded at the deadline if they can’t agree to an extension.
4. I love Onyeka Okongwu; he reminds me of a rawer version of Bam Adebayo.  I’m not quite sure about the fit alongside Capela, but Capela will allow him to develop at a reasonable pace.
5. I think Bogdan Bogdanovic is a good acquisition.  I think sliding Kevin Huerter to the bench will do a lot of wonders; I think they can play alongside each other too due to their similarities offensively.
6. There are a lot of people who think there are too many power forwards/centers and wonder about what they’ll do with De’Andre Hunter or Cam Reddish.  Both can play small forward and I believe Hunter might be able to defend bigger guards, so that is not an issue in my opinion.  Several players they have can guard multiple positions.
7. There could be a lot of pick plays with this team.  I think a pick-and-roll will be evident with guys like Capela or Okongwu, but I could also see that or a pick-and-pop from Collins or Danilo Gallinari.  I wonder if we’ll see more of that from Reddish as well; he’s athletic enough to make it work.
8. I don’t really like the Rajon Rondo signing as much as others.  He hasn’t been effective in the regular season for a few years, so on court will really only be useful if they make the playoffs, which isn’t guaranteed.  He will be a valuable leader though.
9. I think signing Kris Dunn was the most underrated move of the entire offseason.  He will give them a guy who can defend both guard spots.  While he might be athletic enough to guard small forwards, I don’t think their lineup is constructed in a way to play that small.
10. I thought the biggest things they needed to do if they wanted to compete was improve their depth and defense.  They improved their depth substantially, but unless Clint Capela plays like a defensive player of the year or Hunter and Reddish improve substantially, I’m pessimistic about the defense outside Capela, Dunn, Tony Snell, and maybe Onyeka Okongwu.

Washington Wizards

1. Their offense was amazing last year, and I expect it to continue to be this year, especially with the addition of Russell Westbrook.  That said, I expect their defense to be horrible again.
2. I think Westbrook and Bradley Beal will be able to work together.  I think Beal could play similar to the role Paul George had in Oklahoma City, which might help him play better defense.  Don’t expect Beal to score as many points as last year, but expect him to still be a great player.
3. Davis Bertans’ contract is massive, but it made sense for them to sign him.  He has been an incredible shooter for a couple years now.  If they play well, he could be a candidate for 6^th Man of the Year.
4. I think Rui Hachimura’s offensive game will benefit with the addition of Westbrook.  He is a player who can make a big jump with the improvement in point guard.
5. I have been torn on Thomas Bryant for a little while.  He can score just about anywhere, which is valuable to have as a center, but there are times he looks lost (or at least a few steps behind) defensively.  He needs to improve defensively if he wants to be a great center.
6. I expect Westbrook, Beal, Hachimura, and Bryant to start.  I don’t know who the small forward is.  Isaac Bonga was the guy last year, but Troy Brown is a better offensive player.  Even if Bonga starts, I don’t expect he will play a high volume of minutes.
7. I hope they have Deni Avdija coming off the bench this season.  He can give them a nice option as another ball handler to play alongside backup point guard Ish Smith and getting minutes alongside Bertans in the first half will help his passing develop.
8. Jerome Robinson played a lot for them in the Bubble and looked like a better version of himself.  If he can play the same way, he could get up to 20 minutes of playing time most nights.  He could also earn more when Westbrook sits.
9. Robin Lopez is one of the best players in the league at boxing out (his biggest competition might be his brother, Brook).  He plays so hard; I don’t expect a lot of minutes, but the Lopez-Westbrook minutes could be fun.
10. There is the chance this team could be the best offensive team in the game.  However, I expect them to be one of the worst defensive teams in the game.  Having this team last year would have been a playoff team easily, but the East improved.

Charlotte Hornets

1. The Gordon Hayward signing has been frequently panned by people as seeming like they’re competing for the tail end of the playoffs.  I will never criticize anyone for trying to finish 8^th instead of trying to finish 15^th (I think that’s how you create a culture that doesn’t know how to win).  I will say that Hayward’s injury issues in the past few years raise some flags.  While they all were freak injuries, 3 major freak injuries in 3 years is a lot.
2. I thought drafting LaMelo Ball was a good decision; he probably had the most superstar potential out of the players available, and the Hornets need that from a young guy.  I expect his shooting to be a mess this year; I wouldn’t bat an eye if he shoots under 30% in multiple months.
3. I wonder how they handle the Ball/Devonte’ Graham/Terry Rozier guard trio.  I don’t think any of them will be able to play forward.  That said, I don’t think now is necessarily the time to make the trade; they have time to wait.  The Ball/Graham/Rozier/Hayward combination gives them a lot of ball handling, which can be nice.
4. I think their biggest weakness is center.  Cody Zeller has been injury prone, Vernon Carey will likely be raw, and Bismack Biyombo is fine but I think more suited as a backup.  Maybe Orlando decides to move on from Nikola Vucevic…
5. I think their end game lineup will be two of Ball/Graham/Rozier, Hayward, Miles Bridges, and P.J. Washington.  They could also try the three guards, but I think that won’t be good defensively.  Hayward does have the ability to do more with small ball.
6. Washington and Bridges are excellent complimentary pieces.  I think they will be solid defenders, be able to put up at most 15 PPG, and be great teammates.
7. I hope Malik Monk gets more playing time.  He was able to really shoot in college.  He struggled last year from 3, but he still had his highest eFG% because he took more 2’s that were strong looks.  He just needs the support from the coaching staff.
8. Terry Rozier quietly had a strong year last year.  He shot better than he ever had and had an improved shot selection that paired with his high (and sometimes irrational) confidence.  I wonder what happens to him long term as Graham and Ball develop.
9. I don’t think this team is as deep as other teams this season.  That will cause a problem if Hayward or Zeller is injured for a long period of time, Ball can’t score, Monk can’t shoot from 3, Vernon Carey proves to be raw, or Cody Martin doesn’t make a jump.
10. If everything goes according to plan, this team could host a play-in tournament game or bypass that all together.  That said, I don’t expect it to.

Chicago Bulls

1. The Bulls didn’t make many changes to the lineup, which isn’t too surprising given the new front office.  It is possible we see more moves during the season.
2. Billy Donovan is going to be a much better coach than Jim Boylen.  Donovan is a great coach at getting the most out of players; Boylen was only great at getting the most anger out of players and setting several back in their development.
3. I expect Zach LaVine will improve at least a little bit defensively.  He has shown he is a freak athlete and great scorer, but he’s not a great playmaker and hasn’t been good defensively at all.
4. I hope Lauri Markkanen reverts to how he played his first couple seasons.  Boylen really didn’t know how to use him and thought the only effective use of him was behind the arc.  It really limited what he could do.  He is a great shooter, but thrives in the midrange as well as at rebounding.
5. I think it’s worth considering starting Coby White.  He looked better as the season went on and I think Satoransky as a 6^th man will help their bench offense some.
6. I’m not in love with Patrick Williams.  I think he’s so raw that it will take a couple years before he reaches his ceiling…the issue is that I don’t think his ceiling is as high as others seem to believe it is.  I thought there were better players for the Bulls to select.
7. I think their biggest question mark right now is at small forward.  How will Otto Porter look coming off his injury?  Will Donovan be able to get Valentine the player he was prior to Boylen’s arrival?  What will Williams do this season?  Can Thaddeus Young do a lot at the 3 at this point?  Maybe they’ll rely on Garrett Temple instead.
8. I think this year will be a breakout year for Wendell Carter Jr.  He was often compared to Al Horford during the draft process in 2018, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable, although I don’t think he will be the passer Horford is.
9. I have always liked the idea of pairing Markkanen and Carter.  Injuries and struggles have prevented them from showing what they can do together, but I think Markkanen will stretch the floor to allow Carter more midrange possibilities and Carter will be able to defend well enough to make up for Markkanen’s deficiencies.  I just wonder if he’s good enough to make up for LaVine’s and White’s.
10. This is a year that could change the shape of the franchise.  If they struggle, we could see LaVine traded.  If Porter looks good, he could be traded.  I’d be surprised if Satoransky, Young, and Temple are all on the team by the end of the year.  This could be a different Bulls team by the end of the season.

Orlando Magic

1. This team will certainly miss Jonathan Isaac.  In fact, I wonder if this season will make them begin a rebuild.
2. Nikola Vucevic is one of the most underrated centers in the league.  His offensive abilities are well known, but he has become more than capable as a defender as well.  I’m not sure how much of that has been the teammates he has played with though.
3. This needs to be Aaron Gordon’s time to shine.  If he can’t thrive without dealing with the fit of Isaac, then his value for any team will likely take a hit.
4. Evan Fournier is one talented scorer.  His defense is at best average, but he could be a strong third option on a contending team.
5. Markelle Fultz has been a bit of a reclamation project for them so far.  He looked more confident and like he was enjoying basketball again, so that is an amazing sign.  Expect his shooting to improve a bit this year.
6. I’m not sure who will replace Isaac in the starting lineup.  I expect it will be either Terrence Ross, Al-Farouq Aminu, James Ennis, or Cole Anthony.  I would choose Aminu, but I am guessing it will be Ennis.
7. I was surprised that they drafted Anthony given the presence of Fultz.  I figured they would be more willing to draft a wing player, but Anthony is one talented offensive player.  He just had one difficult year at UNC (who he pretty much made relevant anyways), which killed his stock.
8. I hope Mo Bamba can get more playing time.  If Vucevic gets traded, expect him to be a breakout player this year.  He is a great athlete, can shoot, and is a good defender.  He’s had the bad luck of not being able to play forward and having to back up an all-star.
9. I think this team has some underrated bench players.  Terrence Ross could be a 6^th Man of the Year candidate at some point, and I think Ennis and Michael Carter-Williams are great bench players to have.
10. Not having Isaac limits their ceiling.  Ultimately, I think this team misses the play-in tournament and considers rebuilding.  Be on the lookout for trade rumors regarding Gordon, Fournier, Ross, Aminu, and even Vucevic.

Detroit Pistons

1. Well, the Pistons had a weird offseason.  They made it appear as though they were rebuilding after trading Andre Drummond and acquiring 3 draft picks for this year’s draft, but then signed Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee while letting Christian Wood go.
2. The health of Blake Griffin will be what makes or breaks this team.  That said, if he’s healthy, I expect they will trade him.  He’s redefined his game as a big playmaking scorer, which will be desired by many competitive teams.
3. Will this be the year Derrick Rose is traded?  He has been reinvented himself into a valuable high scoring 6^th man and is playing his best basketball since he was in Chicago.
4. Getting Grant was an interesting move.  While they are hoping he will have a major role in the offense, he has never topped 15 PPG in his career, so that’s a risky move.
5. While I love Luke Kennard and hated to see him traded, the writing was on the wall for a bit.  The good news is that they were able to replace him with Saddiq Bey, a younger player who will be a rookie.  The bad news is that they had to give up 4 2^nd round picks in order to get the Clippers to take Kennard.
6. They had some signings that I liked.  I think Delon Wright is a good player and Josh Jackson has a lot of upside and is worth the risk.  I don’t understand letting Christian Wood walk to sign a $41M deal and agreeing to a $27M for Mason Plumlee.  Even if they aren’t sold on Wood, surely they realize Plumlee isn’t going to be a starter for a good team, right?
7. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk is a good shooter but doesn’t really do much of anything else.  I wonder if he can either become an elite shooter or improve another aspect of his game.
8. I think Bey will be ready to contribute at a high level by year 2 at the latest (potentially even this season).  That said, I think Killian Hayes and Isaiah Stewart could take a little longer to develop.
9. I hope Sekou Doumbouya gets more playing time this year.  He is raw, but he is a great athlete and I think can be a strong defender.  If they don’t trade Griffin, that could impact his playing time.
10. Unless the Pistons trade Griffin and Rose, I don’t know what their plan is.  That said, a healthy Griffin will make this team just miss the play-in spot.  An injured Griffin likely means they’re heading towards the bottom.

New York Knicks

1. There were ultimately a few options the Knicks could take this offseason:  go after the better players available, take on bad contracts and load up on assets, run it back with what they had last year, total rebuild, get rid of some guys on player options and try other guys on one year deals.  It seems like they most did the last option, which isn’t necessarily the worst choice for them.  I think they need to figure out their exact direction before making any drastic moves.
2. I love the fact that they got Obi Toppin.  Some are complaining that he will be fighting for playing time behind other forwards, but Julius Randle will not be the long-term option for New York, so Toppin will be set by the end of Randle’s contract.  Toppin is a freak athlete who has the most complete offensive game out of any player in the draft.  He’s also an exciting player, which will be appreciated in New York.
3. I think RJ Barrett will improve this season.  He is a great scorer and should be able to improve given what I think will be his role this year.
4. Now that the Knicks got rid of Taj Gibson, Mitchell Robinson’s biggest competition is…Nerlens Noel, who’s better than Gibson.  However, it sounds like they signed Noel to back up Robinson.  Robinson is an incredible defender already and I think Noel will be able to help him so he doesn’t do too much.
5. I think Tom Thibodeau is going to be a good coach for the Knicks.  At first I wasn’t sold, but he developed players like Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns, Taj Gibson, and helped develop Derrick Rose.  I think Robinson in particular could really thrive under Thibs.
6. Frank Ntilikina is a really underrated defender.  I don’t think he will develop into a quality offensive player to fulfill his selection of 8^th in a strong draft, but I love him as a defensive player.  I wonder if he could be named to an All-NBA Defensive team soon.
7. I expect Randle will be traded this season.  Now that there isn’t a motivation to save for free agency, a guy who can dominate the paint offensively and isn’t a total liability defensively can be appealing.  Even if he isn’t, he can still help them tread water.
8. I’m expecting Elfrid Payton will be the starting point guard to start the season.  Ntilikina is a better combo guard (I like him in a Marcus Smart or Patrick Beverley type role), Immanuel Quickley isn’t quite ready, and Dennis Smith Jr. has struggled mightily.  I like Quickley in a more Jamal Murray role instead of a lead ball handler role, but I’m not sure who else they have that can be a lead handler other than Payton.
9. I hope Kevin Knox gets more playing time.  It will be difficult if they keep Randle to find minutes with Randle, Toppin, Robinson, Noel, and Barrett, but they should at least try to play him at the 3 a bunch to get him more opportunities.  He can be a quality player.
10. I think this team could be better run and coached than we’ve seen in the past few years.  That said, James Dolan’s imprint will remain on the team in some way as long as he remains with the team.

Cleveland Cavaliers

1. This team feels like a combination of misfits.  I expect they will look into some trades though, which will change the makeup of this team.
2. John Beilein was a horrible fit with that team.  I first realized that when there was a mismatch and Kevin Love was on a smaller player and Beilein called for him to set a screen for Collin Sexton instead of running to the post or paint.  The “playing like thugs” incident should have been an immediate indication that he was not fit to coach anymore.  At least J.B. Bickerstaff is sane and capable.
3. I expect Kevin Love’s trade value will be higher than it has been in the past few years.  There are questions regarding his age, health, and motivation, but getting out of Cleveland should do wonders for what he can do with a competitive team.
4. Andre Drummond has said he expects to compete for Defensive Player of the Year next year.  As crazy as it sounds, under a competent coach like Bickerstaff, it is possible.  He looked good defensively under Dwayne Casey, so it’s not as far-fetched as people say.  That said, he could be traded.
5. This team has several big men with Love, Drummond, Larry Nance Jr., and JaVale McGee.  They also have Isaac Okoro who I expect will be able to play the 4 and 5 in a pinch eventually.  I hope we see some combination of 3 of the 4 bigs listed above.  Heck, can I hope they try a lineup of all 5 of the players listed?
6. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are such a weird combination since they are score-first guards.  I’m not sure how successful that will make them in the long-term since that approach doesn’t always lead to playoff success.  I’m also not sure about Garland’s ceiling after his rookie year.  Sexton is a talented offensive player though.
7. Isaac Okoro was one of my three favorite prospects in the draft.  He is a strong defender who should be able to play multiple positions, is fast, is very athletic, and has the potential to be a playmaker.  That said, he shot under 29% from 3 in college last year and just over 67% from the free throw, so that doesn’t bode well for his shooting potential.  What separates him from players like Stanley Johnson, who was a strong defender but horrible offensively, is that he is smart about where he takes his shots and was strong in college from the rim.
8. I’m not sure whether Okoro is ready to start at small forward yet.  They have Cedi Osman who is strong offensively and a good shooter, but he is atrocious defensively; a pairing of Garland/Sexton/Osman/Love might make for a lot of work for Drummond.
9. Their young players are so athletic.  Sexton, Okoro, Kevin Porter, and Dylan Windler have absurd athleticism.  Nance is also a freak athlete so I hope they can make an athletic lineup work that features them playing and largely consists of great dunks and fast break points.
10. This team could be exciting to watch due to their speed and athleticism.  If Love and Drummond get traded, it could also be a mystery who the players on the team are.  I expect that Love and Drummond will not be enough to save this team from finishing last.

 

West

Los Angeles Lakers

1. I can’t remember the last time a championship team proceeded to get better in the offseason.  They replaced Rajon Rondo with Dennis Schröder, Danny Green with Wesley Matthews, and Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee with Marc Gasol (I’m not as high on that, but more later) and Montrezl Harrell while retaining most of their other players.
2. The fact that LeBron James and Anthony Davis extended/resigned must feel like the greatest relief in the world for them.  They are two of the best players in the NBA and both thrived together on the court.  The picks in the Davis trade have to start looking worse now.
3. The biggest question mark related to LeBron and Davis is which one will finish higher in the MVP voting.  My guess this year is Davis because I expect he will play some more games than LeBron, but both are elite and will be near the top.
4. Resigning Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another brilliant move by the Lakers.  While his counting stats largely decreased, he had career highs in FG% (46.7%), 3P% (38.5%), and eFG% (55.8%) while playing strong defense.  He has been such a strong fit next to LeBron.
5. This team has some really underrated depth.  I think the Gasol/Harrell combination will be strong at center and you have Schröder, Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma, Matthews, Alex Caruso, Markieff Morris, Quinn Cook, and Talen Horton-Tucker, all of whom will provide strong minutes in the right situation.
6. A lot of people aren’t big fans of the Harrell signing after his performance in the Bubble.  He struggled due to missing a substantial amount of time following the death of his grandmother.  I think the pick-and-roll game with Schröder will come naturally; I also can’t wait to see a LeBron-Harrell pick-and-roll…or even an AD-Harrell pick-and-roll.
7. I have no idea what the starting lineup on this team will be.  I’m guessing it will be LeBron, AD, Matthews, Gasol, and either Kuzma, Caruso, or Morris.  It could be Schröder as well but I expect they’ll want him as a playmaker off the bench (I expect he will be in the lineup at the end of games).
8. Retaining Morris at the veteran’s minimum is absolutely wild.  He didn’t play much for them until the Bubble, but his toughness and shooting stroke was essential for them in the playoffs.
9. Many people are hyping the Gasol signing, but I’m not as high on it.  He is on a minimum deal, but did everybody who’s acting like he’s better than Howard and McGee watch the same Gasol I did last year?  He struggled with his shot and by the Bubble looked totally outmatched against anybody he played; I thought he made Harrell look decent at times.
10. They aren’t a lock to win the championship, but they are the frontrunners.  They should be able to get to the Finals no problem and I expect they will win the championship again.

Denver Nuggets

1. Nikola Jokic is a superstar.  He’s one of the most complete players offensively that I have ever seen, especially at his size.  I think his defense isn’t quite as bad as people make it out to be, but he’s certainly not a particularly good defender at this point.
2. Jamal Murray had a breakout performance in the playoffs, which doesn’t surprise me given he seems to have a strong game every week or two.  He will need to be more consistent in the regular season for them to thrive, but I think he can do that.
3. Now that Jerami Grant is gone, Gary Harris will be their top defender in their end game lineup.  They’ll also need Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. to be solid defensively and JaMychal Green to be strong on that end.
4. Having Barton back in the regular season will be a blessing.  He is a solid player that you can rely on to get you 13-15 PPG and will just be a guy who can make it so you can’t guard Jokic or Murray too heavily.  He’s an okay defender, but he’ll need to improve this year.
5. Michael Porter Jr. has all sorts of potential.  When he was drafted, I said it was a good pick since I think he can be a superstar if healthy.  I expect him to be more competent defensively this year and more polished offensively.
6. They have three players eligible for Rookie of the Year in Bol Bol (he didn’t play until the Bubble, so he wasn’t eligible last year), R.J. Hampton, and Zeke Nnaji.  Between Bol, Hampton, and Porter, you have a bunch of top recruits who all fell in their draft classes for different reasons.  Now that Porter has shown that he will likely be an excellent player, we’ll see what happens with the other two; I’m optimistic about both.
7. I wasn’t expecting Paul Millsap to resign with them, but they were kind of forced to after Grant left.  He can be good in small doses.  I love the fit of JaMychal Green.  I don’t love him guarding wing guys as much as Grant, but they’ll also have Barton back.
8. Harris needs to improve his offense.  He was a great defender last year (especially in the playoffs), but was bad at offense and shooting in particular (especially in the playoffs).  He is only 3 seasons removed from averaging 17.5 PPG and shooting just under 40% from 3, so there should be hope.
9. Monte Morris is a guard that shouldn’t be as good as he is based on career projections:  the 51^st pick in 2017 who was a solid playmaker in college and not a prolific scorer, but a good shooter.  The Nuggets have developed him to focus on shooting, make some plays, and defend.  He has thrived in the role and could be a candidate for 6^th Man of the Year.
10. I have some questions about defense and consistency offensively with this team, but if everything goes right for them, they could be competing for the Finals.

Los Angeles Clippers

1. Logic would say this team would want revenge and compete for first.  Kawhi Leonard knows that the playoffs are more important and won’t put his health in jeopardy for them.
2. Paul George is a terrific player, but he was bad in the playoffs last year.  His shot less than 40% from the field and most of his advance stats plummeted.  He has had his inconsistencies in the playoffs the last few years, but last year seemed worse.
3. Leonard is still one of the best players in the game.  I don’t know how he’s able to be so strong at both ends of the floor on most given nights.  He played a higher percentage of games last year than he had previously, but he still only played 57.
4. I can’t believe they resigned Marcus Morris for as much as they did.  He was largely a role player for them who is making $16M a year.  Then again, he shot well in the playoffs, is a good defender, and is a tough player to have on the court.
5. They could use a good ball handler on the court.  They have so many guys off the ball, but I think their ball handlers this year will be Leonard, George, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Ky Bowman, and Reggie Jackson, none of whom jump off the page.  I’m guessing Leonard will be their guy with the ball at the end of the games, but I think they should look into acquiring a ball handler; I even think Jeremy Lin would fit well.
6. Beverley is a great 3-and-D guard, but he really struggled to stay on the court in the playoffs.  He averaged almost 4 fouls a game in just 20 MPG in his 8 games.  He cannot do that because of his value defensively.  If he does this again this year, he’s making the road to the championship much harder than it would be otherwise.
7. I love Luke Kennard, but I would be concerned if the Pistons agreed to give up 4 2^nd round picks to compensate for injury issues.  How bad is his health that it took so many picks to agree to take him, and will that make him a more valuable player than Landry Shamet?
8. It stinks to lose Montrezl Harrell, even after he struggled in the Bubble, but Serge Ibaka will be good for them.  He’s not the defensive player he once was, but is a great in the paint and can also shoot from 3.  He would still be a good fit for them.
9. I don’t expect Lou Williams to be there by the end of the year.  He didn’t quite fit as a score first guard who isn’t a good defender, and I think that statement will hold true for this year as well.  He is still a talented scorer though.
10. This team wants to win a title so bad, but I don’t think they will be a top 2 team if Leonard sits out as many games as I expect that he will.  They are more built for the playoffs.  That said, I don’t know if they are better this year.

Portland Trail Blazers

1. Portland made a few good moves this offseason to address weaknesses and have several players returning from injuries.  This team is deeper than they have been.
2. Damian Lillard is a superstar.  He is one of the best offensive players in the league.  He is an elite shooter and scorer and is an underrated playmaker.  He is also an incredible leader.  I can see him being a finalist for the MVP this season.
3. Defense was a major weakness for them last year, but they addressed that this year by trading for Robert Covington and signing Derrick Jones Jr.  Both can defend multiple positions and will be valuable.  Covington is also a good shooter.
4. CJ McCollum is such a talented scorer and shooter.  While he also is good at handling the ball, he is probably better suited as a secondary playmaker.  That said, if he were in the East, he would be an all-star for sure.
5. Jusuf Nurkic’s return will be essential for them this season.  He is a strong offensive player and a quality defensive player as well.  When Rodney Hood and Zach Collins are back from injuries, that will help them as well.
6. After not a lot of wing depth last year, this year they will have Covington, Hood, Jones, Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr., and Anfernee Simons who can play the wing.  They have several guys who can defend and others who are strong shooters, most of whom should play well with Lillard and McCollum.
7. Trent emerged as a strong player off the bench last year.  When the Trail Blazers traded for him the 2018 Draft, I thought it was a good pick due to his shooting, but I thought he wouldn’t be quite this good offensively.
8. The Trail Blazers have some interesting backup centers.  I think Zach Collins will play more at the forward, but they have newly acquired Enes Kanter and Harry Giles.  Kanter has times where he dominates everyone in the paint but can’t do anything defensively at times.  Giles intrigues me:  he is a solid defender, fairly high volume scorer in the paint, good rebounder, and decent passer.  I don’t get why the Kings gave up on him.
9. Rodney Hood was on a roll before tearing an Achilles, shooting 49.3% from 3 in 22 games prior to the injury.  His shooting will be a valuable piece to return.
10. Their depth will make them better than they were last year.  It is possible that they finish higher as well; I wouldn’t bat an eye if they finish in the top 2 and are in the Conference Finals.

Utah Jazz

1. Utah had a tougher year than I expected last year due to players struggling, injuries, and matchups not being great.  That said, I don’t expect it to be much easier this year.
2. Rudy Gobert just signed a 5 year, $205M extension.  He’s an incredible player for them, but that’s a lot of money for a guy who doesn’t do as much offensively as the other players paid in this range.  At least the contract lines up with Donovan Mitchell’s.  That said, the important part is they resigned him; he is so valuable for this team.
3. If the Jazz want to take a jump this year, Mitchell needs to improve.  He emerged into an all-star scorer last year, but he still isn’t a spectacular playmaker or defender; in Utah, he will be needed to do that.
4. Having Bojan Bogdanovic return will be incredible for them.  He is a 20 PPG player and a competent defender.  If nothing else, he at least gives them another scoring option and improves their depth.
5. Mike Conley had a rough season last year, but improved closer to the end.  I expect he will look better next season.  In Memphis, he was a great player all-around and one of the most underrated players in the game.  I expect his defense will take a hit, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he averages 18-19 PPG this year.
6. Jordan Clarkson has been really polarizing this year, but he puts up a lot of points off the bench for whoever he plays for.  The Jazz didn’t have much bench scoring outside of him last year, so he was necessary.
7. Before last season, the Jazz decided they would go with a smaller lineup, but it wound up going horribly for them anytime Gobert wasn’t on the court.  That made it essential to reacquire Derrick Favors.  The price might seem a bit steep, but his fit will be invaluable.
8. I love Joe Ingles.  He is a 6’8 forward who can shoot and is a playmaker.  He’s not an elite player by any means, but he can jumpstart a bench unit.  He can fit with anybody else on this team.
9. Royce O’Neale is an unsung hero for this team.  He is a strong defender who can guard multiple positions, which is essential when playing alongside other players on this team who aren’t as strong defensively.
10. This team does not have much depth; after Mitchell, Gobert, Bogdanovic, Conley, O’Neale, Ingles, Clarkson, and Favors, I’m hesitant about how great these 8 can be and what happens if any of them go down.

Phoenix Suns

1. After Phoenix went 8-0 in the Bubble, they were one of the winners of the offseason by trading for Chris Paul (in the process, they only gave up a guy who didn’t play in the Bubble, the point guard Paul would replace, a couple young players who rarely played, and a 1^st rounder) and signing Jae Crowder while resigning most of their Bubble free agents.
2. Devin Booker is one of the best young talents in the game.  He is an incredible scorer, a good playmaker, and a decent defender.  I think having Paul will help elevate his game to the next level after All Star.
3. I think Paul is just what Deandre Ayton needs to take the next step forward.  He has loads of talent, is great physically, and took a step forward defensively.  The biggest thing for him is consistency, which Paul can keep at him about.
4. Paul is still an excellent player and could compete for an All Star spot this year.  The biggest issues for him are that Devin Booker might be the best player on the team and he is still in the West.
5. I love the Crowder signing.  He is streaky with his shooting, but even if his three point shooting is not like his numbers with the Heat last year (44.5%) or the Celtics in 2016-17 (39.8%) and more like his career numbers (34.0%), he is a strong defender.  I could see him and Chris Paul getting at it at times given how competitive they both are; then again, he never killed Grayson Allen.
6. I expect Booker, Paul, Ayton, and Crowder to start and finish games for them.  While I expect Mikal Bridges to finish games, I could see them going with Dario Saric as the 5^th starter; I also could see them starting either Bridges or Cam Johnson.  Could they also experiment with a small lineup that features Crowder or Saric at the 5?
7. Between Paul, Crowder, Bridges, and Jevon Carter, they have a bunch of guys who are strong defenders, play with a chip on their shoulders, and can do at least some damage offensively.  I expect they will be on the court together at some point, which should be horrible to score against.
8. Dario Saric prior to the Bubble looked like somebody who might not be resigned (10.1 PPG, 34.1 3P%, 5.9 RPG, -1.3 +/-).  Dario Saric during the Bubble looked like a different project (14.8 PPG, 52.4 3P%, 7.6 RPG, 0.8 +/-).  While the deep-range shooting is more of a fluke (career 35.8 3P%), the other numbers aren’t too drastic.
9. There was a decent share of criticism regarding the draft selection of Jalen Smith since few expected him drafted in the lottery.  While I had him going later, I am not opposed to this for several reasons.  The Suns have struggled with developing rawer talent in recent years (Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss) but have done better with higher floor players (Ayton, Bridges, Johnson).  Smith is a big who can shoot and is defensively sound to play alongside Ayton in bigger lineups.  Most importantly in my opinion:  Johnson was supposed to go much later and that worked out for them.
10. I expect they will have their rough moments this year, but I expect they will avoid a play-in game.  If things go right, they could be a top 4 team.  I never want to rule out things going perfectly with Paul in a lineup.

Dallas Mavericks

1. The success of this team largely lies on how healthy certain players are.  That can be a dangerous game to play.
2. Luka Doncic has quickly emerged into a superstar.  While many expressed surprise about his meteoric rise, the only thing I was surprised by was that it happened last year instead of this year.  He is one of the most complete offensive players in the game, and I expect him to be fine defensively in a few years.
3. How healthy will Kristaps Porzingis be?  Their ceiling is capped pretty hard if he cannot be on the court.  He is a strong shooting, shot blocking, 7’3” forward/center.  He has paired well with Doncic when both are healthy.
4. While trading for Josh Richardson will help this team defensively, Seth Curry’s impact on the team last season cannot be understated; there were times that he was their third best player.  That said, Richardson should be a valuable piece for this team.
5. Tim Hardaway Jr. was mainly included in the Porzingis trade so New York could get out from under his salary, but he has played great for Dallas.  He had career highs in 3P% (39.8%) and eFG% (55.0%).  While he has focused more on shots behind the arc, he is still excellent at midrange shots when needed as well.
6. This team has a lot of wing players and a lot of big men.  They have Hardaway, Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Wesley Iwundu, and rookies Josh Green and Tyrell Terry who I expect to play the wing frequently.  Their bigs include Porzingis, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, James Johnson (likely will be treated as a big at this point), and Willie Cauley-Stein. 
7. I’m not sure whether they start another big man alongside Porzingis.  They had success with Powell starting, but their best lineups were often when Porzingis played the 5.  I kind of want to see Kleber and Powell together at times though.
8. Their draft picks this year, Green and Terry, are going to fit so well with this team.  Green fits with a lineup where he can play off the ball and should be a solid off-ball defender.  Terry is an excellent shooter who will be a good secondary ball handler alongside Doncic.
9. Brunson is one of the most underrated backup guards in the league.  He can play strong alongside another point guard and can run an offense off the bench.
10. If Porzingis is healthy for 90% of the season, they could have home court advantage in the first round.  He is already dealing with an injury, so there’s reason for concern.

Golden State Warriors

1. Klay Thompson being injured was the worst possible news for this team; it will be difficult for them with the current roster to remain in the playoffs for more than a round.  That said, even with Thompson I wouldn’t expect them to go far.
2. Stephen Curry is going to have to pull a large part of the load.  He has been more injury prone the last few seasons and missed most of last year, but he has recovered well from them and this doesn’t seem to be too brutal for him not to still be able to shoot well.  He should have a great year.
3. I hope we see a resurgence of Draymond Green; he is strong defender and playmaker when he is healthy and engaged.  He at least one of those weren’t the case last year, but he should be better with Curry healthy.  That said, his defense might not be as good as it was a few seasons ago.
4. Kelly Oubre Jr. will need to be a better shooter from behind the arc if they want to play the same style with a lot of 3-point shooting that they have been.  That said, most of his shots are either in the paint or behind the arc, so he should be able to fit in.
5. I’m not optimistic about Andrew Wiggins’ defensive game, but there is hope that he can fit with their style offensively.  In the 12 games he played for Golden State last year, he shot 55.6% on corner 3’s (40.8% for his career), so maybe they can tap into that.  He has also been excellent at finishing within 3 feet of the rim (68.9% with Golden State, 65.8% for his career).  The issue is that he has been largely unspectacular at scoring anywhere else.
6. I don’t know what to expect from James Wiseman this year.  He was dominant in 3 games at Memphis, but that was all he played before leaving to work out on his own.  He has been working out with retired sharpshooter Mike Miller; at the minimum, that could give him an improved midrange game.  Expect him to be raw.
7. I love the pickups of Kent Bazemore and Brad Wanamaker.  Wanamaker is a decent playmaker who can shoot some and can defend.  Bazemore will be a solid 3-and-D guy for them who can do a lot off the ball.
8. They have a lot of young guys on their team.  Marquese Chriss had a strong year for them, Kevon Looney has played well for them, and Eric Paschall had a good rookie year.  That said, I’m not sure how Wiseman, Paschall, Damion Lee, or Jordan Poole will fit on a competitive team at this point.
9. Last year, they tried several reclamation projects.  While some didn’t work (Dragan Bender), one that worked was Chriss.  He changed his offensive game to almost exclusively scoring at the rim, where he thrives.  He has become smarter defensively as well.  He could be a great player for them for the next few years.
10. If Stephen Curry is injured again, this team’s playoff hopes are done.  If he’s mostly healthy, a lot will have to go right to finish higher than 6^th.  If they earn a home court advantage in the first-round, you might as well name Curry the MVP.

New Orleans Pelicans

1. This team has a lot of guys who can play well.  There are players that seem like odd fits with them, but I think new coach Stan Van Gundy can make it work.
2. The X-factor on this team is what Zion Williamson looks like.  If he is healthy and in shape, this team can finish much higher.  I’m not as optimistic that he is after what we saw last season.  He is a freak athlete, but he wasn’t right in the Bubble and it cost them.
3. I wasn’t in love with the Jrue Holiday trade from their end.  While they got several picks, they wound up with Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams.  I think Adams will work, but Eric Bledsoe isn’t a particularly good shooter (34.4% 3P% last year, 33.6% career), isn’t the best playmaker (5.4 APG last year, career high 6.3), and has struggled mightily in the playoffs.  That said, he is dominant at scoring in the paint and is a great defender.
4. I think they needed to resign Brandon Ingram after the season he had last year.  His shooting was great, and he improved his ability to get to and make free throws.  He has developed into a reliable off the ball shooter with some playmaking chops.  The next step for him will be to improve on the defensive end.
5. With the Pelicans acquiring Bledsoe by trade and Kira Lewis Jr. via the draft, Lonzo Ball’s minutes will be cut if he starts to struggle.  That said, I think he is primed for a breakout year if Williamson is healthy for most of the season; that fast break duo will be fun.
6. I think Steven Adams will fit with the team for the most part; his physicality will probably place him in a role similar to that of Derrick Favors, who improved the team.  I’m nervous about what that means about Jaxson Hayes’ future.
7. I think Josh Hart could be a good player.  He is a solid defender and is great at scoring in the paint, but he needs to improve his shooting behind the arc (34.2% from 3 last season).  He has been an iffy free throw shooter (73.9% last season), so that might not be a fluke.  If so, he shouldn’t focus so much on them.  On the plus side, he realizes he is abysmal at midrange shots and avoids them.
8. Lewis is a talented young player and could be ready to contribute offensively as soon as this year.  I’m not sure if his shot or defense will be ready immediately, but his speed will help him in fast break situations pairing.
9. I would not be surprised if J.J. Redick is traded by the deadline.  He was reportedly involved in recruiting Van Gundy so he won’t get moved yet, but they could get some assets for him.
10. This teams goes as far as Williamson does.  So far, he has missed the beginning of last season due to an injury and looked off during the Bubble due to either an injury or just being out of shape.  I would be scared to put money on them.

Memphis Grizzlies

1. There are a lot of things to be excited about with this team.  They played well last year after several things went right and could have more healthy talent this year.
2. Jaren Jackson Jr. is dealing with an injury, which could be detrimental to the team if it is serious.  He is a good shooter, strong finisher, and solid defender; he needs to cut back on fouling.
3. Ja Morant has all the potential to be a superstar.  He has shown he is a great playmaker and scorer; while he could improve at shooting, he takes a lot of his baskets near the rim, so his percentage should rise as he develops.  Out of the top 3 picks in 2019 (Zion Williamson, Morant, and RJ Barrett), I thought he was the one with the highest ceiling, and I still feel that way.  Will he take the jump that Luka Doncic or Trae Young took year two?  I doubt it, especially if Jackson’s injury in serious.
4. Dillon Brooks seems easiest to peg as the 3^rd player in a big 3 with Morant and Jackson, but there are red flags.  He hasn’t been particularly good at defense and his 16.2 PPG last season don’t stand out when looking at the percentages (35.8 3P%, 40.7 FG%).  That said, his free throw percent rose to 80.8%, so there is hope that these numbers can improve.
5. I hope Justise Winslow is healthy for them at some point.  He can be a secondary playmaker on the court and can do a little of everything.  If he can make in three pointers at the rate he did in 2018-19 (37.5%), that will enhance Morant’s game.
6. While I expect he will be traded this season or next, I hope Jonas Valanciunas remains with the team; I love the fit.  He has improved as a defender and shooter, rebounds at a high rate, doesn’t demand the ball a lot, and is a nice guy to set a pick.
7. They have a lot of players on their bench who can be useful.  I would feel safe giving Morant, Jackson, Brooks, Valanciunas, Winslow, Brandon Clarke, De’Anthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Gorgui Dieng, Desmond Bane, Kyle Anderson, Tyus Jones, Xavier Tillman Sr., and Mario Hezonja regular playing time.
8. They have two essential defenders on their bench in Melton and Dieng.  Before he was drafted in 2018, I compared Melton to Marcus Smart and thought he would be a first round pick (he went 46^th), and I still think that is fair to compare to early career Smart.  Dieng isn’t a guy who will put up high traditional numbers, but his advanced stats are incredible; in particular, he turned Minnesota’s defense with Karl-Anthony Towns in it from abysmal to extraordinary.
9. A lot of the guys on the bench will be valuable shooters for them:  I could see Clarke, Allen, and Bane being at least good.  If Winslow is out for a substantial amount of time, I would start Allen because he plays so hard, can shoot, and was able to be a secondary playmaker in college.  Anytime Jackson is out, they will start Clarke.
10. There was a lot of excitement surrounding this team last year, and I expect them to still be competitive and confident.  That said, there are other teams that improved.

Houston Rockets

1. This team is more uncertain than any team that any other team in the league.  Their success largely lies on James Harden, but he likely won’t be there the entire season.
2. Harden is one of the best offensive players in the NBA, but there are a lot of teams that haven’t expressed interest in him due to his habit of needing the ball in his hands and looking lost without it.  I bet the market thins due to Tim McMahon’s report about the disfunction regarding the atmosphere catered to let Harden do anything.
3. While Russell Westbrook wasn’t the best fit in Houston (which I, and probably many others, expected), I think flipping him for John Wall and a draft pick makes less sense.  He hasn’t played in the NBA for 2 almost years, plays best on the ball, is not a particularly good shooter, and hasn’t had a clean record as a teammate.  On top of that, with the way the protections on the pick are, the best it could be is the 9^th pick of 2027, and it could turn into 2 2^nd round picks if it doesn’t convey.
4. Eric Gordon had a brutal year last year.  If the Rockets want to convince Harden to stay, he needs to have a better year.  They could miss the playoffs if he doesn’t have a comeback year. 
5. P.J. Tucker is such an underrated player and works so hard defensively.  There have been some wondering how hard he will work if the team starts struggling.  If Harden is traded, there could be a team that is interested defensively due to his ability as a 3-and-D player.
6. Christian Wood had a strong finish to the season with Detroit after the trade deadline (13 G, 22.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.0 APG, 56.2 FG%, 40.0 3P%).  The two red flags about this?  He hasn’t been a strong defender, and the Pistons went 1-12 in that span.  Will he be able to contribute to a winning team?  If nothing else, he’ll give John Wall and James Harden some pick option.
7. Danuel House is the Rockets kind of player:  a decent wing defender, most all of his shots being 3’s and the remaining being close to the rim.  He has fit well with Harden and Westbrook; I expect this trend to continue with Wall.
8. Ben McLemore was the career resurgence project for the Rockets last year, following ones like Gerald Green and Austin Rivers (to a certain extent).  Will DeMarcus Cousins be the next comeback player after dealing with an injury?  Depends how athletic he is; he wouldn’t be good in a spot shooter role, which is what the others did.
9. Poor Stephen Silas, gets the opportunity to coach a contending team after having been long qualified only to have the star not like the decision, request a trade, and hold out, and a report come out regarding how dysfunctional the organization is.  To his credit, I think he is handling it as well as he can be.
10. If James Harden remains with the team, I think they finish between 6^th and 8^th.  If James Harden is traded early in the season, I have them in 14^th.  I expect him to be traded close to the deadline, so we’ll split the difference.

Sacramento Kings

1. This team is strange.  They looked like they were in good shape regarding rebuilding, but then traded for Harrison Barnes when it seemed like they could make the playoffs and signed guys like Corey Joseph and Hassan Whiteside.  I think their 2019 9^th place finish was a fluke and some of their moves will harm the team.
2. De’Aaron Fox just signed a max extension, which surprised some people; I have always been a fan of his, so I’m not opposed to it.  He has shown he can score, be a playmaker, and can run.  He needs to improve a bit defensively, but he’s not a horrible defender.  The biggest question is if he can shoot.  He could year two (37.1% from 3), but he couldn’t his other two years (32.8% for his career).  His free throw percentage is ordinary (71.8%) and he didn’t shoot well in college, so I’m not optimistic.  This touch from deep would help the lineup, which I expect to be clogged at times.
3. The million-dollar question is what will happen with Buddy Hield.  It seemed like a lock that he would be traded, but now Bogdan Bogdanovic is gone, the starting shooting guard seems open for him…for now.  Cory Joseph or rookie Tyrese Haliburton could prove to be ready for the spot instead, which will likely lead to tensions again.  He’s a great shooter but an ordinary playmaker and bad defender.
4. I’m not the biggest fan of Harrison Barnes on this team.  I like him as a player offensively due to his ability to score in the paint and his solid shooting ability, but he’s a bad defender, underwhelming playmaker, and not that great of a rebounder.  While he’s a good shooter, most of his buckets come at the rim; while I have no problem at it due to how good he is at it, the team has a several guys who do that while not being able to defend or shoot.
5. Marvin Bagley III must have a breakthrough year this season if he wants a consistent role in the league.  Due to injuries and inconsistencies, it is difficult to grasp what he is.  When he was drafted, I feared that he was the second coming of Jahlil Okafor; so far, he has done nothing to ease those concerns.
6. Nemanja Bjelica is the prototypical 3-and-D guy who happens to be a 6’10” power forward:  he shot 41.9% from 3 last year, took 3’s for almost half of his shots, almost 95% of his 3’s were assisted, and he is an underrated defender.  He doesn’t shoot many midrange shots, but he is great at them as well.  He has one year remaining on his contract, so if they struggle, I expect he will be traded.
7. The Kings have a lot of centers and power forwards on the roster between Bagley, Barnes, Richaun Holmes, Hassan Whiteside, and Bjelica.  I am concerned for them about that because I love Holmes, an old school physical center who is solid defensively and doesn’t need many touches, and Bjelica, and like Barnes (not as much for them).  I don’t get the signing of Whiteside other than for depth.  Bagley was injured a bunch last year, so they could be just prepared.
8. Sacramento has a lot of money locked up between Fox, Hield, Barnes, and Joseph, as well as nearing the end of an expensive rookie deal with Bagley.  In 2021-2022 alone, they can owe the 5 of them up to just shy of $95M (Joseph’s contract isn’t fully guaranteed).  That is a lot of money wrapped up for 5 guys that likely won’t be the core of a playoff team.  While Joseph is the easiest to get rid of, it is best for them if they are able to get rid of either Barnes or Hield; this might not be easy though as Hield is owed $86M through 2024 and Barnes is owed almost $61M through 2023.
9. I love the 2^nd round picks they made this year.  Robert Woodard (40) is a forward who can shoot, looks to be a solid defender at multiple positions, has good size, and won’t take away many touches.  Jahmi’us Ramsey (43) is raw and inconsistent but has the size to defend either position, and can shoot.  He’s not a good playmaker, but I expected him to be a first round pick a month before the draft.
10. I don’t think this team is constructed quite right for each other.  I think Fox would mesh best with great shooters (given his lack of a shot) and fast, athletic players (given his speed and athleticism), but yet they still have Bagley and Barnes and have also brought in Whiteside.

San Antonio Spurs

1. This team has one of the strangest lineups in the league; they have veteran players who are (or would previously be) adored by contending teams, and several young players that I’m not sure project to be stars.  I expect something to happen this year.
2. I love the selection of Devin Vassell with their pick.  While there were other players that might be bigger names, Vassell is a guy who can guard several positions and is one of the better shooters of the players drafted.  That said, I don’t expect he will be a star at any point, which I think they are lacking.
3. Most people have forgotten about how great DeMar DeRozan.  Since arriving in San Antonio, he has improved his defense and taken almost no 3’s.  The reason this is essential for him is because he is so efficient inside the arc that he averages more points for midrange attempt than 3-point attempt (which isn’t supposed to happen).
4. LaMarcus Aldridge suddenly started taking 3’s this year at a decent clip.  While he is still a defensive liability, he could be a sought-after trade asset.  I’m even more confused that Rudy Gay can shoot more, improved his defense, and played center some.  That’s really not supposed to happen.
5. I don’t know that they have any young players are a star in the future.  I think the most likely is Dejounte Murray, who has been a good defender and has slowly and steadily improved on offense.  I don’t think this rings like Kawhi Leonard though; I don’t think Murray is the same kind of offensive player.
6. I am thrilled that they resigned Jakob Poeltl.  He is developing into a great defender and is strong defensively.  I could see him developing into San Antonio’s best defensive big man since Tim Duncan.
7. I hope we see times where Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker, and Keldon Johnson all play together.  These are all great athletes who should complement each other while being versatile defenders.  While they struggled at times with 3-point shooting in the Bubble, having Trey Lyles at the center should ease these concerns.
8. I think Walker will earn more playing time this year and I support it.  He is an athletic player who has developed into a good shooter.  He still has a step to take defensively, but he will be able to make the jump in the next year or two.
9. Derrick White just signed an extension and looks like he is a good shooter and defender.  I have no idea what his ceiling will be.  I also am wondering what Keldon Johnson will be on the Spurs; he is a freak athlete who could be a quality and complete player, but I wonder how he’ll fit in this year since he is still raw.
10. This team could either compete for the playoffs riding DeRozan, Aldridge, Murray, Gay, White, and Patty Mills, or they could trade DeRozan, Aldridge, Gay, and Mills and rebuild around Murray, White, Walker, Johnson, Vassell, Poeltl, and Tre Jones.  I think the latter is the safer guess, but don’t rule out Gregg Popovich.

Minnesota Timberwolves

1. This team has some offensive firepower and could score a lot of points, but they will be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the most complete offensive players in the league; he can score from everywhere, can be a secondary playmaker, and doesn’t turnover the ball much.  He is also a strong rebounder.  While advanced stats have claimed he is a good defender, the eye test shows that he looks lost anytime a screen is set.  He also has yet to show that he can win; the lone time they made the playoffs was largely due to Jimmy Butler, and we saw how well that group aged.
3. D’Angelo Russell scores a lot of points, but also takes a lot of shots to get there.  Most of his shots are 3’s, but he is around a league average shooter.  While he isn’t the best finisher inside the paint, I hope he does that more to get to the line.
4. With Russell largely being unable to defend and Towns often not willing to defend on picks, the team really needed to add some strong defenders.  However, the only players I trust defensively on this team are Josh Okogie, Ricky Rubio, and Ed Davis (in small doses).  They waived Rondae Hollis Jefferson, who I thought would pair very well with them.  Right now, Gorgui Dieng and Robert Covington sound so good for them.
5. I hate the fit of Anthony Edwards with that team, but I’m also not high on Edwards as many others.  His shot selection, playmaking, shooting accuracy, effort, and defense all waivered considerably in college.  He is a freak athlete who should thrive if he puts it together and works, but there’s a reason why some are comparing him unfavorably to Dion Waiters – and why I think that’s generous.
6. I’m a little surprised Malik Beasley was resigned for as much as he was.  He is a terrible defender, is likely not going to be able to guard anyone outside of shooting guards (or a smaller small forward), and it didn’t sound like there was a market for him.  That said, he can shoot and is only 24.
7. I love Okogie’s defensive ability, but he has surprisingly struggled shooting so far.  Due to a lack of power forwards this year, he could play the position despite being only 6’4”.  I cannot wait to see a feisty Okogie up against someone like Anthony Davis.
8. I would expect an improved season from Jarrett Culver after a brutal rookie year.  He wasn’t the best shooter in college, but expect him to improve his 46.2 FT%.  He wasn’t horrible as a defender for a rookie; I bet he is league average in the next two years.
9. While I love the acquisition of Ricky Rubio as a backup guard, I don’t like D’Angelo Russell off the ball as much as others.  Still, Rubio's last season in Minnesota (2016-17), Towns had 25.1 PPG (his career high until last year), Andrew Wiggins had 23.6 PPG (his career high), Zach LaVine had 18.9 PPG (his highest to that point), and Gorgui Dieng had 10 PPG (his second highest behind his 10.1 the year before), a trend that continued in Phoenix last year.  In short, he will help them score.
10. I think Minnesota believes that they will make the playoffs.  The only way this is possible is if the NBA decides to spice rules up and adds in make-it, take-it after about 30 games.  In other words, a lot has to go right for them to have a chance.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1. Well this will be rough.  They have practically every draft pick in the future, but it will be painful in the meanwhile.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking like he can be a star in the future.  I don’t know if he will be more of a point guard or a shooting guard, but he can score and is smart with the shot he takes.  He is also an underrated defender, solid rebounder, and is long.
3. The team has 33 draft picks through 2027 and could have up to 20 1^st round picks in that span.  I expect most of these will be used in trades to acquire other desirable picks or players, but expect them to obtain on some talented players in the coming drafts.
4. Al Horford, George Hill, and Trevor Ariza are all in Oklahoma City because they accepted some draft picks to take them and are just there to keep the seat warm.  Ariza is on the last year of his deal and Hill’s deal is only partially guaranteed next year, so expect them both to be traded.  Unless Houston is looking for an additional team in a James Harden deal, expect Horford to be traded next offseason instead.  If he is healthy, Darius Miller could be traded as well.
5. After becoming a surprise starter as an undrafted rookie, expect Lu Dort to get a lot of minutes at the wing, especially if Ariza is traded.  He is an NBA ready defender, but he needs to improve on offense if he is to make it in the league.  He wasn’t a good shooter in college and this trend has continued in the NBA.
6. Darius Bazley is another player who will likely get more playing time.  He often struggled on the offensive end, but looks like an NBA ready center as a ready, which should give them a nice combo defensively at forward by pairing him with Dort.  Bazley is a freak athlete.
7. I’m a little surprised Aleksej Pokusevski and Theo Maledon are playing in the NBA already this season and not waiting a year or two to develop a little more.  Pokusevski is a playmaking big who can shoot some, but he’s so skinny.  Maledon is a great playmaker who can shoot or finish in glimpses, but isn’t the best athlete or defender.  That said, both will get playing time and experience.
8. Could Hamidou Diallo have a breakout season for them?  He’s a good defender and a freak athlete, so he will get his chances.  Like Bazley and Dort mentioned before, he is not a good shooter and hasn’t shown much offensively outside of finishing at the rim.
9. Justin Jackson is in a make-or-break season.  He struggled offensively for Dallas last year and has been worse than I expected defensively.  If he plays well offensively, he could pair well with Dort, Bazley, and Diallo.
10. Remember how last year everybody was writing off the Grizzlies and they almost made the playoffs?  It wouldn’t surprise me if this team is like that and the young players play as hard as they can with frantic energy.  However, most of the young players on the Grizzlies were more highly touted entering the NBA and seemed more ready; I cannot justify having the Thunder finish ahead of any team in the NBA.