My 2020-2021 Award Predictions

Since the NBA season starts today, I am releasing my preseason predictions; this post is about my predictions for the award nominees.  This is the second post in the series; the first released was my top 100 players.


I predicted who will be All-Stars and the most likely players to get award votes and be named to the teams.  I judged this based on team success, how I think players will do, and voting trends.  I did not account for who I would vote for with any of these.  I listed 20 potential players for each league for All-Stars, 20 potential players for each award, and the exact number of spots for each All-League teams (15 for All-NBA, 10 for All-Defensive and All-Rookie).


While I have not published my predictions before, my predictions for most awards are fairly accurate.  I have accurately predicted the MVP each season since 2016-17, usually am right about the Rookie of the Year winner, and usually predict 2 of the 3 finalists for Defensive Player of the Year.  The last few years I could usually predict at least one finalist for Sixth Man of the Year; my major weakness is Most Improved Player, which I haven't done in the last couple years after I predicted it to be a tight race between Gary Harris and Jaylen Brown in 2019...and both played worse than the previous season.  I am tepid with my predictions this year since I don't feel as confident about any one player for several of the awards.  I also figure Covid-19 could totally ruin my predictions, but as I said in my previous post, I am treating everyone as equal to miss time due to the disease (sorry teammates of James Harden).


Without further ado, here are my predictions for the NBA Awards this season.


All-Stars

I have listed who I think will be the starters, the reserves, and 8 others from each conference to also keep an eye on.

East

Starters

  1. Kyrie Irving, PG, BRK
  2. Trae Young, PG, ATL
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, MIL
  4. Kevin Durant, SF/PF, BRK
  5. Joel Embiid, C, PHI

Reserves

  1. Jimmy Butler, SF/SG, MIA
  2. Ben Simmons, PG/PF, PHI
  3. Jayson Tatum, PF/SF, BOS
  4. Pascal Siakam, PF, TOR
  5. Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, MIL
  6. Bradley Beal, SG, WAS
  7. Bam Adebayo, PF/C, MIA

Others to watch

  1. Russell Westbrook, PG, WAS
  2. Kyle Lowry, PG, TOR
  3. Jaylen Brown, SF/SG, BOS
  4. Khris Middleton, SF, MIL
  5. Domantas Sabonis, C/PF, IND
  6. Victor Oladipo, SG, IND
  7. Fred VanVleet, SG/PG, TOR
  8. Nikola Vucevic, C, ORL

West

Starters

  1. Stephen Curry, PG, GSW
  2. James Harden, SG/PG, HOU (If still in the West)
  3. LeBron James, PG/SF, LAL
  4. Anthony Davis, PF/C, LAL
  5. Kawhi Leonard, SF/SG, LAC

Reserves

  1. Luka Doncic, PG/SG, DAL
  2. Damian Lillard, PG, POR
  3. Nikola Jokic, C, DEN
  4. Devin Booker, SG, PHO
  5. Paul George, SF, LAC
  6. Donovan Mitchell, SG, UTA
  7. Rudy Gobert, C, UTA

Others to Watch

  1. Chris Paul, PG, PHO
  2. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, MIN
  3. Zion Williamson, PF, NOP
  4. Jamal Murray, PG/SG, DEN
  5. CJ McCollum, SG/PG, POR
  6. Ja Morant, PG, MEM
  7. DeMar DeRozan, SF, SAS
  8. Brandon Ingram, SF/PF, NOP


Most Improved Player

  1. OG Anunoby, SF, TOR
  2. Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, ATL
  3. Jerami Grant, PF/SF, DET
  4. Lonzo Ball, PG, NOP
  5. Thomas Bryant, C, WAS
  6. Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, SAC
  7. Troy Brown Jr., SF, WAS
  8. Aaron Holiday, PG, IND
  9. Donte DiVincenzo, SG, MIL
  10. Jakob Poeltl, C, SAS
  11. Chris Boucher, C/PF, TOR
  12. Wendell Carter Jr., C, CHI
  13. Christian Wood, C/PF, HOU
  14. Mitchell Robinson, C, NYK
  15. Derrick White, SG/PG, SAS
  16. Grayson Allen, SG, MEM
  17. Robert Williams, C, BOS
  18. Derrick Jones Jr., SF, POR
  19. Josh Okogie, SG/SF, MIN
  20. Markelle Fultz, PG, ORL


Sixth Man of the Year

I’m not sure who will be in the starting lineups of several teams, so I am guessing on the eligibility of certain players

  1. Dennis Schroder, PG/SG, LAL*
  2. Norman Powell, SG, TOR
  3. Tyler Herro, SG, MIA**
  4. Montrezl Harrell, C, LAL
  5. Caris LeVert, SG/SF, BRK (Spencer Dinwiddie if LeVert starts)
  6. Jordan Clarkson, SG, UTA
  7. Davis Bertans, PF, WAS
  8. Aaron Holiday, PG, IND
  9. Kendrick Nunn, PG, MIA (Goran Dragic if Nunn starts)
  10. Lou Williams, PG/SG, LAC
  11. Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF
  12. Danilo Gallinari, PF/SF, ATL
  13. Derrick Rose, PG, DET*
  14. Terrence Ross, SF/SG, ORL*
  15. Eric Gordon, SG, HOU*
  16. Joe Ingles, SF/PF/SG, UTA
  17. Matisse Thybulle, SG, PHI
  18. Kyle Kuzma, PF, LAL*
  19. Brandon Clarke, PF, MEM
  20. Chris Boucher, C/PF, TOR


*There is a chance this player starts too many games.  I am not sure how their team will construct the starting lineup.

** Herro came off the bench most of last season, so I am predicting he will this season.  If he starts, Duncan Robinson will likely come off the bench and replace him on this list; in that case, slide everybody from Montrezl Harrell until Aaron Holiday up a spot and rank Robinson 9th.


Rookie of the Year

  1. James Wiseman, C, GSW
  2. Anthony Edwards, SG, MIN
  3. LaMelo Ball, PG, CHA
  4. Obi Toppin, PF/SF, NYK
  5. Tyrese Haliburton, SG/PG, SAC
  6. Isaac Okoro, SF, CLE
  7. Kira Lewis Jr., PG, NOP
  8. Killian Hayes, PG/SG, DET
  9. Devin Vassell, SG/SF, SAS
  10. Deni Avdija, SF/G, WAS
  11. Patrick Williams, SF/PF, CHI
  12. Onyeka Okongwu, C, ATL
  13. Cole Anthony, PG/SG, ORL
  14. Saddiq Bey, SF/PF, DET
  15. Aaron Nesmith, SG/SF, BOS
  16. Aleksej Pokusevski, PF, OKC
  17. Josh Green, SG/SF, DAL
  18. Isaiah Stewart, PF/C, DET
  19. Jalen Smith, PF/C, PHO
  20. Tyrese Maxey, PG, PHI


All-Rookie Teams

1st Team

  1. James Wiseman, C, GSW
  2. Anthony Edwards, SG, MIN
  3. LaMelo Ball, PG, CHA
  4. Obi Toppin, PF/SF, NYK
  5. Tyrese Haliburton, SG/PG, SAC

2nd Team

  1. Isaac Okoro, SF, CLE
  2. Kira Lewis Jr., PG, NOP
  3. Killian Hayes, PG/SG, DET
  4. Devin Vassell, SG/SF, SAS
  5. Deni Avdija, SF/G, WAS


Defensive Player of the Year

  1. Anthony Davis, PF/C, LAL
  2. Rudy Gobert, C, UTA
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, MIL
  4. Bam Adebayo, PF/C, MIA
  5. Ben Simmons, PG/PF, PHI
  6. Myles Turner, C, IND
  7. Marcus Smart, SG/PG
  8. Patrick Beverley, PG/SG, LAC
  9. Mitchell Robinson, C, NYK
  10. Kawhi Leonard, SF/SG, LAC
  11. Joel Embiid, C, PHI
  12. Jimmy Butler, SF/SG, MIA
  13. P.J. Tucker, PF/C, HOU
  14. Robert Covington, PF/C/SF, POR
  15. Brook Lopez, C, MIL
  16. Paul George, SF, LAC
  17. Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, MIL
  18. Eric Bledsoe, PG, NOP
  19. Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, SAS
  20. Andre Drummond, C, CLE

 

All-Defensive Teams

1st Team

  1. Ben Simmons, PHI, G
  2. Marcus Smart, BOS, G
  3. Anthony Davis, LAL, F
  4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL, F
  5. Rudy Gobert, UTA, C

2nd Team

  1. Patrick Beverley, LAC, G
  2. Jimmy Butler, MIA, G
  3. Kawhi Leonard, LAC, F
  4. Bam Adebayo, MIA, F
  5. Myles Turner, IND, C


Most Valuable Player

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, MIL
  2. Luka Doncic, PG/SG, DAL
  3. Anthony Davis, PF/C, LAL
  4. LeBron James, SF/PG, LAL
  5. Damian Lillard, PG, POR
  6. Nikola Jokic, C, DEN
  7. Kawhi Leonard, SF/SG, LAC
  8. Jimmy Butler, SF/SG, MIA
  9. James Harden, SG/PG, HOU
  10. Stephen Curry, PG, GSW
  11. Kevin Durant, SF/PF, BRK
  12. Jayson Tatum, PF/SF, BOS
  13. Pascal Siakam, PF, TOR
  14. Bam Adebayo, C/PF, MIA
  15. Joel Embiid, C, PHI
  16. Rudy Gobert, C, UTA
  17. Ben Simmons, PG/PF, PHI
  18. Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, MIL
  19. Devin Booker, SG, PHO
  20. Bradley Beal, SG, WAS


All-NBA Teams

1st Team

  1. Luka Doncic, DAL, G
  2. Damian Lillard, POR, G
  3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL, F
  4. LeBron James, LAL, F
  5. Anthony Davis, LAL, C

2nd Team

  1. James Harden, HOU, G
  2. Stephen Curry, GSW, G
  3. Kawhi Leonard, LAC, F
  4. Jimmy Butler, MIA, F
  5. Nikola Jokic, DEN, C

3rd Team

  1. Ben Simmons, PHI, G
  2. Jrue Holiday, MIL, G
  3. Kevin Durant, BRK, F
  4. Jayson Tatum, BOS, F
  5. Bam Adebayo, MIA, C


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