Overreaction to certain teams

Now that we are a few games in, many fans and commentators do the most obnoxious thing in my opinion:  pretend we know anything about any NBA team after 2-4 games.  That said, this season has some things that feel like are true from these:  certain teams are struggling without some of their players, some are in trouble due to a potential franchise altering move, and some are encountering some weird luck.  In this post, I will look at several teams that are underwhelming, had major publicity for a bad game, or have a star injured and determine whether it is actually time to be concerned and when the right time to be is.  Records and stats are accurate as of prior to the games on December 29th.

 

The Injuries

The following teams have a major contributor who is injured, and their team has missed (or will miss) them.

Golden State Warriors

1-2, Draymond Green out a couple more games, Marquese Chriss and Klay Thompson out for the season

Concerned:  Not quite yet

While the Warriors have been largely putrid lately, there is a massive sense of optimism:  Kelly Oubre will start having shots fall again.  He is currently 7-40 (17.5%) from the field and 0-17 from 3; last year he had a 45.2 FG% and 35.2 3P%.  While both of those were career highs, it is unwise to expect he will keep his current rate.  That said, there are reasons for concern:  Andrew Wiggins has struggled to play winning basketball, what will Green need to do defensively, the lack of 3-point shooting, center depth after Chriss’s season ending injury, and overall depth.  Green’s return won’t solve all of these, but once Oubre starts making in shots and if Wiggins improves his field goal percentage, then it’s worth reconsidering.

When to be concerned:  Around game 10

 

Boston Celtics

1-2, Kemba Walker out until January

Concerned:  Not yet

Last year, Boston’s offense was primarily run through four players:  Jayson Tatum, Walker, Jaylen Brown, and Gordon Hayward.  With Hayward in Charlotte and Walker still out, Tatum and Brown have each averaged over 20 field goal attempts per game (nobody else on the team has averaged over 9) and are the only ones with more than 10 PPG.  Walker will give them a more reliable option when he returns, but there are still several bright spots:  Tatum and Brown looking like they can be stars, Marcus Smart having been a strong playmaker, Robert Williams playing with constant energy, Payton Pritchard looking like he fits in the NBA already, Tristian Thompson and Daniel Theis working together.  However, the team is still lacking depth, especially with Jeff Teague being inconsistent.  That said, their games so far have been against Milwaukee, Brooklyn, and Indiana, all strong teams.

When to be concerned:  Around game 20

 

Brooklyn Nets

2-2, Spencer Dinwiddie out for the season

Concerned:  Not yet

The loss to Charlotte was a close fluke loss and the loss to Memphis was an off-night for Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.  There is cause for concern about Dinwiddie’s injury, as an ACL injury is not the best news for long-term future.  While they are a deep team, Dinwiddie was expected to be a top-4 player on the team.  If Taurean Prince or Landry Shamet improve, that might lessen the blow.

When to be concerned:  Around game 25

 

Minnesota Timberwolves

2-1, Karl-Anthony Towns week-to-week

Concerned:  Yes

While this team has a lot of offensive firepower, Towns is the biggest star on the team.  While dealing with some injuries last season, the team only won 1 game with him in the lineup after December.  It is crucial that he is there to work out chemistry earlier if they hope to make the playoffs.  Additionally, after trading Gorgui Dieng, their best options for center now are Naz Reid, Ed Davis, and Jaden McDaniels, which is a large drop.

When to be concerned:  Now

 

Dallas Mavericks

1-2, Kristaps Porzingis out for a few more weeks

Concerned:  Yes (if expecting to be a title contender)

Currently, there are only three players who have scored at least 10 PPG for Dallas:  Luka Doncic (27.7), Josh Richardson (16.7), and Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.3).  While Richardson in particular has thrived in Dallas so far, Doncic has taken almost twice as many shots as anyone else on the team and his efficiency has taken a hit as a result.  While an easy solution would be to give another player more touches, most players on the team are taking around the same field goals per game as they normally would.  Porzingis returning will help bring another offensive weapon to the court and take the burden off Doncic.

When to be concerned:  Now (after about game 15 if not contending)

 

Memphis Grizzlies

1-2, Ja Morant out for 3-5 weeks, others out including Jaren Jackson Jr., Justice Winslow, and De’Anthony Melton

Concerned:  Yes

The biggest problem for this team now is that Morant, who averaged team leading 26.3 PPG and 6.3 APG through three games, is now going to be out for several weeks.  They were able to beat a Nets team without Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, or Spencer Dinwiddie, but struggled against the Hawks and Spurs.  Even if Jackson, Winslow, and Melton come back soon, they will struggle without their leading scorer and playmaker.  On the plus side, Dillon Brooks is leading the team in field goals per game (18.7) and is second in assists per game (4.0).  They got some surprising scoring from Kyle Anderson in the last two games (48 points), but his 7.2 PPG over the last three seasons is more telling.

When to be concerned:  Now

 

Uncertainty Ahead

The following teams are or could deal with major roster turnover

Houston Rockets

0-2, James Harden situation

Concerned:  Yes

It’s no secret that the team is dealing with the uncertainty of what will happen with Harden.  The team seemed inclined to try to change his mind and convince him to say, but I was suspect that playing with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Christian Wood would change his mind.  Now that Wall, Cousins, Eric Gordon, and Ben McLemore are out for quarantining reasons, Houston is stuck with David Nwaba starting and Sterling Brown and Jae’Sean Tate as their top players coming off the bench…I feel like that’s not what their plan was to sway Harden.  Harden (39 PPG/12.5 APG/5 RPG) and Wood (27/2/8) have been amazing offensively, but both are shooting over 50% from 3, which isn’t sustainable.  Beyond that, Nwaba and Brown are their next best scorers (12 and 11 PPG respectively), but this isn’t sustainable given their averages (7.0 and 5.2 PPG in the last 3 seasons respectively).  Wall, Cousins, and Gordon should be back on Wednesday, but I don’t see Harden changing his mind soon.

When to be concerned:  Now

 

Washington Wizards

0-3, Bradley Beal

Concerned:  Soon

It might sound too soon to ring the warning bell on Beal considering the team has had Russell Westbrook for only 3 games and Rui Hachimura is out for around 3 more weeks.  That said, he has made it clear that he wants to win a championship; Washington has not been primed to compete for a couple years now.  If he sees that they are struggling early, he might want out.  Beal has struggled from 3 so far (25%), but has thrived otherwise offensively (33 PPG, 5 APG) while leading the team in field goal attempts (25 FGA per game).  The other players with more than 10 attempts per game, Westbrook and Thomas Bryant, have been a mixed bag:  Westbrook has been similar to OKC Westbrook (18 PPG/13.5 APG/13.0 RPG in 2 games), but he has only shot 36.6% from the field (while having yet to make a 3) and Bryant has 15.0 PPG and is shooting 62.1% on 2’s, but is only shooting 30% from 3 (compared to 40.7% last season).  It might be enough to convince Beal to request a trade soon.

When to be concerned:  After game 5

 

Chicago Bulls

0-3, New management shaking up the roster?

Concerned:  Depends

Last year, many predicted the Bulls to be the surprise team to sneak into the playoffs if enough other teams disappointed (I had them 10th)…and they finished 11th.  This year, Billy Donovan was the coach instead of Jim Boylen and Gar-Pax is gone, so it should be different, right?  I had them finishing 11th and they have looked abysmal so far.  If they continue to struggle, I expect new executive Arturas Karnisovas to shake things up.  I’m not sure who could be traded, but don’t be surprised to see Zach LaVine, Thaddeus Young, Denzel Valentine or Otto Porter mentioned in trade discussions.  That said, there is hope for the future:  Lauri Markkanen has been great offensively (20 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 47.6 3P%, 60.0 2P%, 66.7 eFG), Coby White has had his moments despite struggling inside the arc (13.7 PPG, 5.0 APG, 39.1 3P%), and Patrick Williams has been much better than I expected (12.3 PPG, 40.0 3P%, 1.7 BPG) while also being a better passer than his 1.3 APG suggest.  That said, it must be tough to be optimistic for Bulls fans for this season after starting horribly.

When to be concerned:  After game 10 if a Bulls fan, after game 25 if predicted them to make play-in, otherwise never

 

Contenders

These teams are expected to contend for the title and either had a brutal game or struggled to start despite most contributors being healthy.

Los Angeles Clippers

2-1, 51-point loss to Dallas

Concerned:  No

Everyone is making a big deal about being down by 50 at the half on December 27th and losing by 51, but this isn’t something to worry about.  Kawhi Leonard didn’t play and the team went 26-76 (34.2%) from the field and 4-33 (12.1%) from 3.  How often will Paul George (4-13), Luke Kennard (3-11), Terance Mann (2-8), Amir Coffey (0-5), Lou Williams (0-4), and Mfiondu Kabengele (1-3) all struggle from the field?  Several of these guys won’t get the playing time they did that day in a close game, so I’m not worried; I consider it to be a fluke game.

When to be concerned:  If blowout losses become regular (they won’t)

 

Los Angeles Lakers

2-2

Concerned:  No

Some people have made it a big deal that the Lakers lost to the Clippers and the Trail Blazers, but both are good teams and both LeBron James (22.8 PPG, 6.5 APG, 7.5 RPG, 47.1 FG%) and Anthony Davis (19.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 0 BPG) have been more mortal than in previous years, which shouldn’t keep up.  That said, Dennis Schroder has been strong offensively (16.8 PPG, 5.5 APG, 5.5 RPG, 53.8 2P%), Montrezl Harrell has done a lot offensively off the bench (15.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 71.4 FG%), and Kyle Kuzma appears to be figuring out his place in the offense (13.5 PPG, 47.6 3P%).  I don’t know if any of these are sustainable, but they are promising starts.  Even their two losses aren’t as glaring to me.  In the Clippers loss, they had no business being in that game given both James and Schroder struggled from the field (7-17 and 5-15 respectively) while Davis and Schroder had the same number of field goal attempts.  In the Trail Blazers loss, you won’t win if you allow Gary Trent to score 28 points and go 7-11 from 3 and Enes Kanter to go 6-9 from the field for 12 points.  I am not worried about them.

When to be concerned:  If this is their record in a playoff series

 

Milwaukee Bucks

1-2

Concerned:  No

Nobody seems to be talking about the fact that the Bucks lost 2 out of their first 3, and I think that is good.  Frankly, they are a difficult Jayson Tatum shot away from being 2-1 and avoiding this post.  Their win was a Christmas blowout against the Warriors and their other loss was a weird blowout against the Knicks.  In this game, New York shot 46-85 (54.1%) from the field and 16-27 (59.3%) from 3, which they will likely never duplicate.  In particular, don’t expect another performance of 3-5 from 3 from Julius Randle, 12-16 from the field and 3-3 from 3 from Elfrid Payton, and 4-4 from 3 from Frank Ntilikina.  The Bucks had one fluke game and one bad luck game.

When to be concerned:  The playoffs

 

Toronto Raptors

0-2

Concerned:  No

While the Raptors have struggled defensively, I think the more glaring fluke for them is the best players shooting numbers.  Pascal Siakam (42.4 FG%), Fred VanVleet (40.6%), Kyle Lowry (43.3%), OG Anunoby (43.8%), and Norman Powell (12.5%) are all shooting less than 45% from the field, a benchmark most of them were able to hit last year.  I expect Powell in particular to improve; there is almost no chance that he continues to shoot as horribly as he has.  That said, keep an eye on their defense:  so far opponents have shot 49.4% from the field and 43.4% from 3 while shooting only 58.3% from the line.  The free throw numbers will likely rise, so they need to improve their numbers from the field.

When to be concerned:  If they’re still struggling from the field by game 30

 

Denver Nuggets

1-2

Concerned:  No

The Nuggets barely lost an overtime game against the Kings while Jamal Murray couldn’t hit a shot and then lost a Christmas matchup against the Clippers who were out for revenge; I’m not worried about either of those.  They easily won a game against a short-handed Houston team, but their defense has been iffy so far; it should improve once JaMychal Green has recovered from injury.  Gary Harris needs to improve offensively, Will Barton needs to improve from 3, and Jamal Murray needs to be more consistent if they want to be competitive again, but Michael Porter Jr. has been competent defensively at times this season.  None of that even mentions the fact that Nikola Jokic has league leading 14 assists per game so far as a center.  I can’t imagine that number will be sustainable.

When to be concerned:  Maybe midseason (I’m not sure what this team is defensively quite yet)

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2025 WNBA Mock Draft

The 2025 WNBA Draft is finally here, which means that we get my Mock Draft!  One year after a loaded draft, most draft-eligible stars returned to school for another year (likely to see what the salary structure looks like after the next collective bargaining agreement), so we have a bit of a weaker draft.  There are two players who have star upside (the top two picks) and another who I think has a chance of becoming an All-Star.  As I do with all my mock drafts, these are an aggregate of several other drafts, and do not reflect my order.   The first round considers team needs as well as the order; I did not do this for the second or third rounds because most players after the first round are selected for training camp and then don’t make the roster. With the addition of the Golden State Valkyries, there are now 13 picks in each round, with the exception of the first round; Las Vegas was stripped of their first round pick for violating league rules.   1: ...
Read more

2025 WNBA Draft Grades

The WNBA Draft is in the books, and now that I have finally gotten my ducks in a row, I am ready to discuss the grades!  While it was an interesting draft with multiple storylines, I also thought that it was a weak draft after who I thought were the top 3 players in the draft (with two, Paige Bueckers and Dominique Molonga, being the top 2 picks, and a third, Shyanne Sellers, falling to the second round).  A big part of this is due to players with eligibility waiting to see the result of next year’s new collective bargaining agreement. With my grades, I did not penalize teams if I thought they should have taken a different player (in that situation, everyone who passed on Sellers after the first two picks would have gotten a worse grade than they did), but focused on the player they did pick and what I thought about the selection and fit.   With my grades, there isn’t an exact formula, but I prioritized first round picks, then second round picks, and then third round pi...
Read more

2025 NBA Mock Draft 1

Every year, I release 3 mock drafts prior to the NBA Draft, and this is the first!  This has been considered an elite class due to the projected top-2 picks, but how polarizing players are starting at the potential 3 rd pick will make this a very interesting draft cycle. All of my drafts are aggregates of several drafts and are intended to give an idea of what the draft is looking like at this point in time (while I would love it if I am right on several picks in the mock, there’s movement that I won’t know about until during the draft).  While I account for need in certain picks (more so in the first round, especially the lottery), these are not a reflection of what I think of each pick or how I would rank the prospects.  The picks are divided into three sections:  for the lottery, I provided vitals, in depth analysis, comparison, and the fit with the team.  For the remaining first round picks, I provided vitals, brief analysis, and compa...
Read more