The Giannis Antetokounmpo Supermax Extension

Earlier today, Giannis Antetokounmpo agreed to a supermax extension with the Milwaukee Bucks, signing a five-year, $228M deal.  After several teams had publicly saved cap space to chase Giannis in free agency, including Miami and Toronto, he opted to resign after being cryptic recently.  This extension will have a minor chain-reaction in the league this year.

My reaction

Part of me was not surprised that Giannis agreed to the extension.  He has previously expressed his love for Milwaukee and his loyalty has been well documented throughout his career.  That said, he did not give any indication he necessarily would after the Bucks were eliminated from the playoffs.  He has made it clear that he wanted to win as well.  Overall, the team made a smart (but expensive) trade to obtain Jrue Holiday but botched a Bogdan Bogdanovic acquisition and had a fairly quiet offseason otherwise.  Upon first being asked about his intentions, Giannis effectively said that he lets his agent handle the negotiations.  While this response was generally considered polarized, I’m not opposed to it.  What he said was true and if it hadn’t been finalized, it doesn’t make sense to say he would resign; if he did and then the contract fell through, he would be viewed as a villain.  Ultimately, he resigned, and I am pleased that he did; I love when a beloved player resigns with the city that they embraced and embraced them.  Giannis has expressed his love and gratitude for Milwaukee, and it is amazing to see him strive to win it there.

What it means for the Jrue Holiday trade

When Milwaukee traded for Holiday, there were many that said this trade was identical to the Anthony Davis trade.  It was absolutely not; while the picks might have appeared similar at the time, anyone arguing that the return of the young and promising Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, and Josh Hart is equivalent to that of the older Eric Bledsoe and George Hill (both of whom struggled this past playoff), then their assessment is probably a bit distorted.  However, the biggest thing to watch was the picks, which are 2024, 2026, and swaps in 2025 and 2027.  Now that Giannis is signed through 2026, the 2024 and 2026 picks will likely be in the 20’s (some younger teams in the East could prevent them from being the best team in the conference some years).  I expect the 2025 swap to have a miniscule effect, if any.  The next one to watch would be the 2027 swap, which would be the next time Giannis could be gone.  If he no longer is in Milwaukee, that swap has the potential to be utilized.  That said, that is around the time Zion Williamson’s rookie extension could expire; it is entirely possible that he follows the trend of stars nearing the end of their deals and requests a trade before then.  In that case, it’s possible the swap isn’t effective then either.  Ultimately, Giannis’s signing makes this trade a bit worse for the Pelicans, it is still too early to call this trade bad.

What that means for free agency

The summer of 2021 was supposed to be a loaded class potentially headlined by Giannis, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George.  Now, Giannis, James, and George have all signed extensions, leaving Leonard the only potential free agent; now that George has extended, it’s possible that Leonard is inspired to either opt in or extend as well.  Some of the top unrestricted free agents for next year include Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dennis Schröder, Evan Fournier, and Kelly Oubre Jr. (even though I would not be surprised if Gobert and Lowry agree to extensions).  While I don’t expect Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to decline their player options, other players who could include Jrue Holiday (I expect him to either opt in or extend/resign), Spencer Dinwiddie, Norman Powell, Serge Ibaka, and Montrezl Harrell.  The two most interesting things in my opinion are team options and restricted free agency.  I think the most notable player with a team option is Goran Dragic, but some teams (including the Heat) signed players to include club options for next season; I wonder if they would opt in now that Giannis is no longer available.  I am also excited to see how the restricted free agent market will play out; unless any of the following sign extensions, it is possible that Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Duncan Robinson, Lauri Markkanen, Kendrick Nunn, OG Anunoby, Zach Collins, Jonathan Isaac, Luke Kennard, John Collins, Markelle Fultz, Josh Hart, Jarrett Allen, and Derrick White could all be restricted free agents.  I wonder if some teams (including rebuilding teams with a substantial amount of cap room) could go after some of these players (think back to the Nets during the summers of 2016 and 2017).

What that means for trades

Given the decline in the 2021 free agency class, I expect some teams might try to trade for a veteran player that teams have been resistant to target previously.  The most obvious trade target is James Harden; I wonder if a team like Miami would be more willing to try to acquire him now that they missed Giannis or if Philadelphia is scared that another team would go for him.  Another frequently rumored player over the past couple seasons is Kevin Love; I think he could be the biggest winner of Giannis resigning.  The Magic have been rumored to be shopping, so maybe Nikola Vucevic becomes available and teams are more willing to trade for Aaron Gordon or Terrence Ross.  I also wonder if a team might be willing to take on one of the King’s players signed to a long deal like Harrison Barnes or Buddy Hield.  If a player like John Wall or Russell Westbrook doesn’t fit with their new team, I wonder if they are on more easily moveable contracts now.