Fantasy Players to Watch and Avoid

 With the NBA season approaching us, fantasy basketball is also rapidly approaching.  This year will be especially interesting in from a fantasy standpoint (as well as real life) due to the shortened offseason, Covid-19, a changed in the schedule, and 72-game season.  I have frequently done well in fantasy basketball in the past (finishing in the top 2 in most of my leagues since I started playing in the 2016-17 season), so I would like to discuss who I would draft and avoid. 

I broke the players into groups based on their ESPN rankings for their head-to-head rankings; I included each player in the top 10, 10 players from 11-50, 10 from 51-100, 10 from 101-130, and 10 from 131-200.  Since I play head-to-head with a snake draft, I will make my selections based on that.  When I say if I would select them or whether I would watch or avoid, I mean in comparison to their ranking.  For example, I listed Pascal Siakam in the avoid for 11-50 since I would be hesitant about selecting him at 27^th (his current rank), but I would take him before somebody at 50.  I also assumed that a 10 team draft of 13 players was used, which is how I treated the selections.

 

The Top 10

James Harden, Houston Rockets (1)

There is much uncertain surrounding the Rockets and Harden; if he is traded (now that Russell Westbrook has been, I believe he will be), then it depends on what team.  If the team trades more players, than his assists might dip a bit.  That said, Christian Wood should give him an advantage with pick and roll play and he consistently plays almost the entire season.  Would I Take Him?:  Tentatively Yes (ask me again closer to the start of the season)

 

Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves (2)

If this were not fantasy basketball, I would laugh if I heard somebody would take Towns with the 2^nd pick of anything other than the 2000 Draft.  In fantasy, however, he has put up monster offensive numbers and some blocks.  That said, I expect him to be disheartened with how the team plays this year and start to not try as hard at times.  Would I Take Him?:  Not at 2 (Probably by 5 though)

 

Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers (3)

The fit between LeBron James and AD worked swimmingly last year, and it has been rumored that James told AD that he would play a bigger role this upcoming season.  With James probably going to be doing more load management early, expect AD to take a bigger role from the jump.  Would I Take Him?:  Yes (Consider selecting him with the top pick)

 

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (4)

Doncic had an amazing year last year and it is easy to assume he will improve again considering he gained another year of experience.  That said, there is some fear that Kristaps Porzingis will miss the start of the season, which will put a larger role on Doncic’s shoulders.  While he might struggle with efficiency early on, it will pay off once Porzingis is back.  Would I Take Him?:  Yes

 

Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (5)

Last year, Jokic somehow slipped to me with the 9^th pick in one of my drafts (for some reason Kyrie Irving and Steph Curry were selected before him) and it was the steal of the century.  His well-rounded offensive game lends himself perfectly to fantasy and he can put up high numbers in points, rebounds, and assists any given day.  Would I Take Him?:  Yes (Consider selecting him with the top pick)

 

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (6)

Curry will put up monster scoring numbers under two conditions:  he is healthy and at least one supporting cast member is also scoring well (my best guess is Kelly Oubre).  Without Klay Thompson, expect his assist numbers to take a hit, but if he is healthy, he will score frequently.  Would I Take Him?:  Tentatively Yes (Avoid him if there are signs of pain or injury in training camp or preseason)

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (7)

I think ranking Antetokounmpo 7^th is ESPN’s way of showing they only evaluated him after the Bubble.  He put up monster numbers in the regular season, plays almost every game, and will put up strong numbers in almost every category.  The presence of Jrue Holiday will not hinder this.  Would I Take Him?:  Yes (Consider selecting him with the top pick)

 

Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks (8)

There is a case to be made that Young’s scoring will decrease with the additions of players like Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Danilo Gallinari.  However, I think there will be less of a load on him to score, less coverage on him, and more opportunities for assists.  He is one to expect a rise in production from.  Would I Take Him?:  Yes

 

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers (9)

Lillard will absolutely score in bunches almost every night.  He had career highs in scoring, assists, and effective field goal percent while not missing a substantial amount of time for injuries.  The additions of Robert Covington and Enes Kanter, the return of a healthy Jusuf Nurkic and Rodney Hood, and the continued development of Gary Trent Jr. and Nassir Little will help Lillard as a playmaker and take defensive coverage off him.  Would I Take Him?:  Yes

 

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers (10)

It is possible that James will take a step back this year during the regular season and load manage some (especially early in the season).  Make no mistake though, he is coming of an incredible season and should continue to thrive given the additions the Lakers made.  Would I Take Him?:  Yes (Expect him to be selected prior to the 10^th pick)

 

Some to watch/avoid in 11-50

Watch:  Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns (11)

He had a career year with Ricky Rubio as the point guard.  He developed into a strong choice as a secondary ball handler, and now with Chris Paul at the point and the development of Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson, expect his numbers to take a little bit of a bump.

 

Avoid:  Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers (13)

The case against Leonard involves two words:  load management.  I suppose it also relates to two other words he seems to be allergic to:  regular season.  He will put up monster numbers, but it is often a crapshoot whether he plays.  Only consider if you have an ultra-reliable player drafted prior.

 

Watch:  Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (14)

There were moments where Tatum was the lead ballhandler last season; with Gordon Hayward gone and Kemba Walker potentially hindered by a minutes restriction at the start of the season, expect his assist numbers to rise while his scoring still remains high.

 

Avoid:  John Collins, Atlanta Hawks (19)

Danilo Gallinari will be the starting power forward eventually and Clint Capela will be the starting center.  That leaves Collins in an uncomfortable spot and (given certain defensive limitations) at a lower ceiling in what his minutes or production can be.  He is a good player, but not for fantasy.

 

Watch:  Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets (31)

Even if Murray regresses back to what he did last season, he still is a player who can score in bunches when he is rolling.  There were issues with his consistency the last couple season, but in a weeklong stretch, you can count on him to have at least two solid games.

 

Avoid:  Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets (24)

Irving has been injury prone throughout his career.  While he will put up amazing numbers when he plays, the issue is not how he plays, but rather if.  I do not believe the presence of Kevin Durant will impact his numbers substantially from a fantasy perspective.

 

Watch:  Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat (32)

Butler will likely remain the number one scoring option for the Heat and even if he struggles from behind the arc again, he was elite at making free throws.  On top of that, the emergence of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo as scorers could allow him to obtain more assists.

 

Avoid:  Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors (27)

While he had another great regular season last year, there were some efficiency issues being the lead option.  On top of that, their current centers are Aron Baynes and Alex Len; while OG Anunoby was valuable in certain matchups, Siakam will have to guard bigger matchups than usual this season.

 

Watch:  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (43)

He might have his struggles without Chris Paul or Dennis Schröder there to take over if needed, but his scoring will increase because of the lack of offensive weapons and he at least has Al Horford to play the pick and roll with and Trevor Ariza (unless he gets traded yet again) to dish it to behind the arc.

 

Avoid:  Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans (33)

Zion struggled with injuries for most of the season and looked totally out of shape in the Bubble.  If he was actually out of shape, I wouldn’t put stock in him turning around quickly in a short offseason.  If he was injured and the Pelicans did not announce it, then there is still a short turnaround.  His availability could remain far from guaranteed next season.

 

Some to watch/avoid in 51-100

Watch:  Malcolm Brogdon, Indiana Pacers (57)

While his scoring might take a bit of a hit with Victor Oladipo returning, his efficiency should improve substantially. 

 

Avoid:  Buddy Hield, Sacramento Kings (67)

Now that Bogdan Bogdanovic is in Atlanta, Hield could slide back into the starting spot, which could make Hield happy and no longer want a trade; if this happens, draft him.  That said, I expect Sacramento to make a trade and, if they can find a partner for Hield, he makes sense to dump due to his salary.  The uncertainty scares me away from wanting to draft him this high.

 

Watch:  Kelly Oubre Jr., Golden State Warriors (58)

With Klay Thompson injured, the number 2 option is open after Steph Curry.  While Andrew Wiggins or James Wiseman can fill this role, Oubre is more efficient and is coming off a career year.

 

Avoid:  Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs (78)

I would select Murray earlier in real life, but from a fantasy standpoint he won’t put up the counting numbers to justify this spot, especially not while competing for playing time with fellow young guards/wings in Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker, and rookies Devin Vassell and Tre Jones.

 

Watch:  Christian Wood, Houston Rockets (69)

If the Rockets are contending, expect Wood to play a similar role to Clint Capela with the Rockets.  If the Rockets trade James Harden and Russell Westbrook, expect Wood to put up the monster numbers he displayed after Andre Drummond was traded.

 

Avoid:  Terry Rozier (90)

While Rozier had a career year last season, there will be fewer opportunities given the additions of Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball.  While each point guard might take turns, I expect Rozier will be the one who might be affected the most if Ball plays well as a rookie.

 

Watch:  Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics (77)

I have no idea why Brown is so low in the fantasy rankings this year.  Brown had career highs in almost every category (including efficiency numbers) and could have more opportunities without Gordon Hayward and possibly limited Kemba Walker to start the year.

 

Avoid:  Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (91)

Edwards has a high potential ceiling in the league, but he is raw in many ways, especially in shooting and shot selection.  He will likely be a third option behind Karl Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, so his scoring might be pale at times.  However, playing alongside Ricky Rubio will help him develop quicker.  Keep an eye out for him on the waiver wire for the second half of the season.

 

Watch:  Lauri Markkanen, Chicago Bulls (97)

After a career worst year in nearly every counting stat, expect Markkanen to have a bounce-back year.  He lost minutes due to early struggles last season, but this year he has nothing to lose due to being eligible for restricted free agency and will likely be aided by a better coach.  The thing that might hinder him is the lack of a clear point guard for the Bulls.

 

Avoid:  Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn Nets (93)

With Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving favoring De’Andre Jordan, the writing is on the wall for Allen.  I expect he will be traded (I thought he would be by now), but I do not know to whom; that will determine whether taking him here is a great decision or a horrible decision.

 

Some to watch/avoid in 101-130

Watch:  Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons (101)

There are injury concerns with Griffin, but at this point in the draft, I tend to take some risks.  If he is healthy, he will likely play like a top-25 player.  If he is not, he was drafted late enough that waiving him feels totally valid.

 

Avoid:  Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets (109)

While Dinwiddie has shown he is a great player, I have my doubts regarding whether he can play alongside Kyrie Irving.  If he can, this would be a steal, but I am a little pessimistic.  Consider him more after another round.

 

Watch:  Mike Conley, Utah Jazz (104)

I do not expect Conley to put up the numbers he did in his last year in Memphis, but he should improve from what he did last year.  It should be worth taking a gamble this late in the draft.

 

Avoid:  Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz (110)

I love the fit of Favors back with Utah, but not from a fantasy standpoint.  I expect him to play most of his minutes at center, limiting him to largely being behind Rudy Gobert.  If he plays alongside Gobert more than I expect, he is worth considering.

 

Watch:  Collin Sexton, Cleveland Cavaliers (105)

Sexton began to thrive from a scoring standpoint not long before the season was suspended last year.  He won’t get much else, but I expect him to score more next year; if nothing else, the Cavs could have a fun transition game to pair the fast Sexton with freak athletes Larry Nance and Kevin Porter, a healthy Dylan Windler, and superb athlete rookie Isaac Okoro. 

 

Avoid:  Willie Cauley-Stein, Dallas Mavericks (117)

He struggled with the Mavericks last season and the team found success with the Kristaps Porzingis at center lineups.  If Dwight Powell and Porzingis are out for a substantial time at the beginning of the season, Cauley-Stein will be beneficial; that said, drafting him would be for that and to waive him once either player recovers.

 

Watch:  Otto Porter Jr., Chicago Bulls (108)

Unless Zach Lavine plays more at the 3 or Patrick Williams plays better than I expect to start the year, Porter is their small forward to start.  He should play decent enough if he recovers from his injury.

 

Avoid:  Tyrese Haliburton, Sacramento Kings (124)

I tend to be hesitant on drafting rookies because I am unsure of how teams plan on using them or how their game will translate.  The former is the only thing holding me back with Haliburton.

 

Watch:  Rui Hachimura, Washington Wizards (115)

Hachimura had an up-and-down rookie year at times, but he should have a more defined role and grasp on the game in his second year.  If Wall is healthy, his scoring could increase as well.

 

Avoid:  Elfrid Payton, New York Knicks (127)

I usually consider Payton a steal in fantasy considering his assist totals, but I expect the Knicks will try to make a move for an all-star.  Most rumored seem to be point guards, putting Payton’s stock in jeopardy.

 

Potential waiver wire steals

Dillon Brooks, Memphis Grizzlies (134)

With Jaren Jackson likely missing time, Brooks probably becomes their second option.

 

Jordan Clarkson, Utah Jazz (138)

Clarkson was valuable as a bench scorer for them; if anyone struggles or gets hurt, expect a larger role.

 

Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks (142)

Hardaway has played well as a shooter for them.  While he does not do much in fantasy, expect more looks as Luka Doncic continues to improve and with no Seth Curry.

 

Jae Crowder, Phoenix Suns (145)

Crowder will be a 3-and-D player who I expect will play a smaller role in Phoenix.  That said, they now have Chris Paul at point guard…need I say more?

 

Jerami Grant, Detroit Pistons (149)

Grant signed with Detroit to take a larger role in the offense.  Expect this to happen given their lack of direction for this year.

 

OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors (163)

Anunoby can score in small doses, rebound some, and get 2 steals-plus-blocks a game.

 

Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat (166)

His value comes from his shooting, and he will have his off nights.  That said, when he is on, you want to have him in your lineup.

 

Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors (169)

Given the lack of centers outside Aron Baynes, Boucher could get more playing time next year.  Wait until the start of the season though to get a better idea of rotations.

 

Cody Zeller, Charlotte Hornets (185)

Who else does Charlotte have who can start at center?  He scores some and rebounds some; if healthy, he puts up solid numbers.

 

Matisse Thybulle, Philadelphia 76ers (188)

Acquiring Thybulle is beneficial if banking on a key Philadelphia player being injured or struggling.  Since Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are on the team, I would put money on the former.

What do you think about these players for fantasy?  Do you have any sleeper picks you are excited to make or have made?  Be sure to share in the comments!