Rookie’s First Impressions

After approximately a month into the season, there are various things that have impressed me so far.  In this post, I would like to focus on what various rookies have done that have impressed me.  I ranked the players based on when they were drafted.  I also didn’t include every player; I excluded players that I have not seen play enough, players who have not had substantial playing time, or players who have not given me enough of a reason to be impressed quite yet.  All statistics are from Basketball-Reference and accurate as of 1/23 prior to any games on that day.

 

Anthony Edwards:  Ability to attack the rim

Like the Timberwolves season (and their defense), Edwards has not been particularly good; while he has 11.6 PPG, he has largely done it while chucking up a lot of shots (34.6 FG%, 27.0 3P%, 39.8 2P%, 40.1 eFG%, 73.9 FT% on just 1.6 attempts per game) and without doing much else (2.9 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.1 BPG, horrible defensive metrics).  There is only one thing I can say that I’m impressed with about his game:  he is attacking the rim at times.  While he only has 8 dunks in 14 games, around 33.5% of his attempts have come between 0-3 feet, where he is shooting 50.8%.  While this is far from elite, it beats his numbers from anywhere else on the floor (23.8% from 3-10 feet, 20.0% from 10-16, 31.3% from 16-3 PT arc, and 27.0 3P%).  That said, 40.7% of his field goal attempts are from behind the arc; with his percentages, he averages more points per attempt on shots at the rim than anywhere else and should focus more on that.  It could also help him get to the free throw line more, even though he hasn’t gotten to the line much so far.  I figured he would be raw, but I’m surprised he has attempted so many shots.

 

James Wiseman:  Shot selection

Wiseman’s rookie year (much like the Warrior’s season) has had ups and downs.  While he is averaging 11.6 PPG/6.1 RPG/1.3 BPG (19.7/10.4/2.3 per 36 minutes), he has several more turnovers than assists and looks lost anytime there is a pick set.  That said, I would expect this from a rookie who played 3 games in college while only picking up 1 assist and looking raw then.  There have been some criticizing his lack of 3-point attempts compared to deep 2’s, but he only attempted 1 3-pointer in his 3 games at Memphis, so the fact that he’s attempting 1.1 per game is improvement.  With that, I was impressed with his shot selection as early as opening night.  Most of his shots are taken next to the rim (37.1% of his field goal attempts from 0-3 ft.) or for shot 2’s (25.7% of attempts from 3-10 ft.).  He has been amazing in the 0-3 range (78.8 FG%); while he hasn’t been as good from 3-10 (33.3%), he’s better there than the 10-16 range (23.1%), which he rarely shoots from.  It’s easy to nitpick the fact that he has shot more deep 2’s than 3’s (16.4% of field goal attempts from 16-3P and 11.4% of attempts from 3), he only attempted 1 shot from behind the arc in college; the fact that he is shooting 39.1% from the 13-3P range and 37.5% from 3 is promising to me that he will be a better shooter than I expected prior to the Draft.

 

LaMelo Ball:  Decision Making

Whenever I watched LaMelo Ball prior to the Draft, I saw someone who played out of control, taking ill-advised shots, and playing like he cared more about making highlight plays instead of somebody who played like he wanted to win.  While this was part of the frantic style of basketball often employed by the teams he played on, he seems to be successfully adjusting to a different style used by the Hornets.  While the Hornets have struggled thanks in part to Devonte’ Graham forgetting how to make shots, P.J. Washington and both Martin brothers struggling from deep, Cody Zeller being injured, almost the entire team struggling from deep, and the starting lineup being largely a net negative on the floor.  That said, Ball has been playing well for them.  While he has been a -3.3 off the bench for them, he has been smart with his shot selection (not taking many shots from 3-16 feet, where he has struggled), making smart passes (whether it will be a highlight assist or lead to a bucket), crashing the boards, being attentive offensively, and playing well defensively (he leads the team with a 1.2 DPM).  While he does have some weaknesses still (struggling from 3 lately, low free throw percent, decent number of turnovers, occasionally trying too much to force a turnover), I would argue he has been one of the best rookies so far.  I will gladly eat my words about how much I disliked him before the Draft and admit I was wrong.

 

Patrick Williams:  Readiness

It may sound weird to say that I am most impressed with how ready Williams has been for the NBA, but I criticized the decision to draft a player I viewed as too raw to play for a team competing for the playoffs.  So far, he has had his rough moments for sure, but he has looked more ready than I expected.  Statistically, his college raw numbers in his freshman year at Florida State were 9.2 PPG/4.0 RPG/1.0 APG/1.0 SPG/1.0 BPG in 22.5 MPG coming off the bench; this season, he has 9.7/4.0/1.0/0.8/0.7 in 26.1 MPG while starting.  He has also shot 46.7% from 3 compared to 32.0% in college (his free throw percentage was 83.8% in college, so there were signs that it would translate, but this is a big jump).  He has also done a lot of things better that aren’t on the stats sheet that I was surprised by; knowing where to be offensively and defensively, made the extra passes when necessary, being smarter than many rookies about his shot selection, and being willing to be a role player if that’s what it takes to help his team win.  I still have no idea what his ceiling is, but I like his floor more than I did previously.

 

Isaac Okoro:  Durability

This might be a difficult argument since Okoro had to miss 5 games due to the Covid-19 Protocols, but here goes nothing:  he has played 36.8 MPG as a rookie.  Ultimately, he has played 368 minutes in 10 games and has played more than 40 minutes 3 times, which is a tall task for a rookie.  I will admit, part of that has been that their wings who got consistent playing time starting the season were Okoro, Cedi Osman, and Larry Nance Jr. (who’s not a wing but started small forward out of desperation previously).  That said, this will not keep up:  the Cavs acquired Taurean Prince in the James Harden trade and in his second game (the team’s first non-overtime game), Okoro played 31 minutes.  If Okoro struggles (so far it’s been up and down for him), he could lose the starting spot to Prince.  That said, Okoro was one of my favorite prospects prior to the draft (along with Obi Toppin and Onyeka Okongwu), and I’m still bullish on him.

 

Obi Toppin:  Willingness to shoot

I have been a little disappointed with how little Toppin has played and what he has been forced to do in his minutes, but I also wasn’t anticipating Julius Randle would be playing 37 MPG and Toppin would be injured for a bit.  That said, I have been impressed by how willing he is to shoot from deep; in 7 games, 16 of his 36 (44.4%) field goal attempts have been from deep (compared to 21.2% his sophomore year at Dayton).  I am a bit lukewarm about this approach because he is only shooting 31.3% from 3 and his biggest strength is at the rim, where is currently shooting 64.3% and thrived at in college.  He only has 6 dunks in his 7 games, which was part of why I thought he would be perfect in New York.  That said, he needs to because their biggest minute players are not good outside the paint; the other bigs with regular playing time include Julius Randle (33.8 3P% this season, 29.9% career), Mitchell Robinson (never attempted a 3), and Nerlens Noel (2-8 for his career).  Other players with regular playing time struggling from 3 include RJ Barrett (25.7 3P%), Elfrid Payton (29.4%), and Immanuel Quickley (32.6%).  That said, I don’t expect Randle, Noel, or Payton to be in the team’s long-term plan, and Barrett and Quickley should improve eventually.  He’s still one of my favorite players drafted this past year.

 

Deni Avdija:  Shooting ability

While there were expectations that Avdija could become a good shooter eventually, I wasn’t expecting him to be a good shooter his rookie year after shooting 27.7% from 3 and 55.6% from the line last year with Maccabi Tel Aviv.  After playing 11 games with Washington, he is currently shooting 45.7% from deep.  I expect there is the chance this could be a fluke as he is also shooting 62.5% from the line, but playing alongside Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal could create better looks.  He has looked competent at times defensively and has mostly shot either 3’s or shots near the rim, but he has struggled from 2.  He hasn’t had as much time with the ball in his hands as I hoped, but he is starting alongside Westbrook and Beal so those opportunities will be scarce.  I like him so far.

 

Devin Vassell:  Free throw percentage

Vassell has only played 18.2 MPG due to the large number of guards/wings the Spurs have (that’s even with Derrick White being injured for most of the year so far), but has still shown a lot in those minutes.  He has largely shown that he can be a great 3-and-D player, shooting 37.1% from 3 and having a 2.5 DBPM; I was largely expecting him to do something like this eventually.  What he has surprised me with is his free throw percentage; it is a small sample size, but he is 14-15 (93.3%) from the line.  This is such a small number that I wouldn’t put much stock into it, but he only shot 73.8% in college.  I expect this number to decrease as the season progresses, but it is an impressive start.

 

Tyrese Haliburton:  Completeness offensively

The start of the season has been a mess for the Kings so far:  they are 6-10, De’Aaron Fox hasn’t played as well as I expected, Marvin Bagley has ranged from good to totally lost, Buddy Hield has left a lot to be desire, Harrison Barnes has been solid offensively but horribly defensively, Hassan Whiteside has fallen out of the rotation at times, Nemanja Bjelica has struggled in reduced minutes, Corey Joseph has looked bad, and their defense is one of the worst in the NBA.  There are two reasons to be optimistic:  Richaun Holmes has been a quality player offensively and defensively, and Haliburton looks like he will be a great complementary player on this team.  He is averaging 11.4 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 0.7 BPG, shooting 47.0% from 3, 50.4% from the floor, 81.8% from the line, and has a 63.4 eFG%.  He has struggled defensively, but his height (6-5) and ability on and off the ball suggest that he could play either guard spot; this will be valuable given that they are now locked into Fox for the next 5 seasons.  He is also athletic, which will help the team when the Kings finally realize that Fox is best utilized in a fast environment and not a slow one featuring players like Barnes, Whiteside, and Bagley.  While it’s up in the air if they have anything in Bagley, they can take solace in the fact that they likely struck gold with Haliburton.

 

Cole Anthony:  Confidence

Anthony is in a similar boat as Anthony Edwards (my dad would probably say that Cole Anthony Edwards is a good Before and After puzzle) so far:  he has 10.2 PPG, but is shooting 34.1% from the floor, 28.3% from 3, and 36.8% from 2 (giving him a whopping 38.5 eFG%; yikes!).  With his shooting numbers, he is shooting 60% from the 0-3 range (which is nice for a rookie guard) and 45.8% in the 10-16 range (that one might be an oddity but beside the point); that said, 31.2% of his attempts are from 3 (where he has struggled) and 30% are from the 3-10 foot range (where he is shooting just 25.5%).  While he needs to improve his shot selection, he is shooting 88.9% from the line, which shows he can do it; that said, he was forced to play like he was UNC’s only option (look at how they were without him and it showed this was true), and has continued to do it this year after Fultz went down with an injury.  The most notable difference between him and Edwards is that he puts up 3.2 APG and 4.5 RPG, but his rookie year has been rough, which is why I am so impressed with his confidence.  Against the Celtics (where the Magic lost 124-97), he had to leave the game due to injury for a while but still was willing to come back and play garbage time to get the experience; he proceeded to shoot only 7-18 from the field, 1-6 from 3, have 15 points, 3 assists, 6 rebounds, 5 turnovers, and finish with a -22.  That said, through all his rookie mistakes when shooting, playmaking, and defending, he played hard and never lost confidence.  This was rewarded when he made in a game-winning shot against the Timberwolves after going 5-7 from the field for 13 points; Nikola Vucevic had 28 points on 11-27 shooting and Evan Fournier had 24 points on 9-21 shooting while Aaron Gordon and Terrence Ross had more field goal attempts.  I think his confidence will help him go a long way, but he does need to improve several parts of his game.

 

Isaiah Stewart:  Rebounding ability

While a strong player inside the paint in college, I wasn’t quite sure how his size would translate to the NBA at 6-8.  That said, he has 5.6 RPG in 17.1 MPG, which is good for 11.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.  In particular, he has more offensive rebounds than defensive rebounds so far (38-35).  Are these numbers sustainable?  The only other player with more than 9 per 36 is Mason Plumlee, who is the team’s starting center and has 11.6.  Jerami Grant has been received more of the offensive load this season, Blake Griffin has frequently tried to play more like Kyle Korver than Blake Griffin, Jahlil Okafor hasn’t gotten much playing time (not that I’m surprised by that), and none of the wings or guards have more than 4 rebounds per game.  Last year, the rebounding was mostly done by Andre Drummond or Christian Wood, so there seemed to be a gap to be filled whether it was by design or not.

 

Saddiq Bey:  Ability without the ball

Prior to the draft, Bey was projected to be an excellent 3-and-D player who was close to NBA ready.  The defensive part of his game has been a bit slow to develop, but that often happens with NBA rookies and with bad teams.  He has shot 38.8% from 3 and 80% from the line, which isn’t particularly surprising considering his numbers in college (45.1% from 3 and 76.9% from the line his sophomore at Villanova).  While he showed in college that he was a good shooter off the ball, there are a few numbers to show how much he has done off the ball so far this year:  70.5% of his field goal attempts are 3’s and 92.3% of his 3’s were assisted.  This was evident when the Pistons beat the Celtics earlier this year; he managed to get open frequently in transition and in the half court and wound-up shooting 5-8 from 3.  I kept wondering how he kept getting open, but he just knew where to go on any given play.

 

Precious Achiuwa:  Fit with the Heat

While I questioned how Achiuwa would fit on the Heat given the positional overlap with Bam Adebayo and the lack of shooting that would be brought from Achiuwa, Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler, I liked the pick because he is talented and plays so hard.  So far, he has done just that, as he has 7.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 0.9 APG in 16.7 MPG (his per 36 minutes stats are 16.3/11.2/1.8).  For comparison, Adebayo averaged 6.9 PPG/5.5 RPG/1.5 APG in 19.8 MPG while largely backing up Hassan Whiteside.  I don’t think Achiuwa is the passer Adebayo is or has the ceiling, but he has been similar in some ways statistically and with how hard they play.  Additionally, Achiuwa has been helpful for the Heat on the floor.  While he has been on average a -2.7 so far, he is a +0.9 if you remove their 4 blowout games, which the Heat were 1-3 in.  The Heat got off to a rough start, starting 6-8, but I expect the second number to be more consistent as the season goes along.

 

Tyrese Maxey:  Finishing ability

I wasn’t in love with the pick when the 76ers opted to draft a point guard who can’t shoot to play alongside (or back up) Ben Simmons, especially when stronger shooters were still available.  That said, he has been a strong slasher off the ball thanks to finishing ability I never expected to translate with as a 6-2, 200-pound points guard.  76% of his shot attempts are from 2, where he is shooting an above average 53.0%.  In particular, he is shooting 65.6% in the 0-3 range, which is impressive to me considering his size and lack of dunks (4 in 16 games).  He also has shot 46.2% in the 3-10 range and 65.0% in the 10-16 range.  While he has shot 38.5 in the 16-3P range (which isn’t horrible), it would be nice if he could turn more of those into 3’s; even while shooting 27% he is averaging more points per attempt from 3 than in the 16-3P range.  He also has somehow not gotten to the line despite driving so much.  It doesn’t make sense to me that he would have so much success slashing while playing with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, but with defenses so focused on those two, I think Maxey has room to penetrate.

 

Immanuel Quickley:  Willingness to change his shot selection when struggling

I previously how I admired Cole Anthony’s confidence even while struggling, but I admire Quickley’s ability to change his shot selection some while struggling from 3.  After shooting 42.8% from 3 in his sophomore year at Kentucky, he has only shot 32.6% from 3 so far.  He has adjusted; in his last 6 games, he only has more 3’s than 2’s in one game and has shot better from inside the arc in 4.  While he is only shooting 43.3% from 2, he has targeted areas that can get him to the line, as he has a FTr of .264 (the league average is .248); the reason it is so important for him to get to the line is that he is shooting 92.9% (which is around what he shot in college as well).  This has allowed his point total to be higher than it should given his low field goal percentage at the moment.  That said, I expect his 3P% will rise.

 

Payton Pritchard:  Readiness for clutch minutes

Last season, the Celtics only had 5 players who averaged at least 10 PPG:  Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, and Marcus Smart.  With Hayward leaving for Charlotte, Walker out to start the year with a knee injury, and Smart having moments of inconsistency, the Celtics needed somebody to come off the bench and score; the frontrunners seemed to be Daniel Theis and Jeff Teague…gulp.  Suddenly, enter Payton Pritchard:  he has averaged 7.7 PPG in 20.9 MPG on 42.5% from 3, 54.5% from 2, 48.8% from the field, 90.0% from the line, and a 58.9 eFG% (which is good for 13.3 points per 36 minutes).  He also has 2.6 APG, 2.4 RPG, and 0.9 SPG.  He has scored everywhere from the field (in particular, he has shot 77.8% in the 0-3 range).  Even when he has struggled (which isn’t frequent), he has been trusted by coach Brad Stevens in clutch minutes.  He scored the winning bucket against Miami after snagging an offensive rebound; after that bucket he went only 3-10 from the field.

 

Desmond Bane:  Being the best shooter on the team

While the Grizzlies have gotten off to an unusual start (see more about it in the section about Xavier Tillman Sr., as I think it relates more to him), they have also struggled with shooting, as they have shot just 33.3% as a team from deep.  While Grayson Allen and De’Anthony Melton have been quality shooters this season, there are only two players who have shot more than 40% from deep:  backup center Gorgui Dieng is shooting 44% (last season, the only other year he attempted more than 2 per game, he shot 35.5%, so I expect to see a decrease here) and Bane, who is shooting 48.9% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game.  While he shot 43.3% from the field and 80.4% from the line during his 4 years at TCU, I never expected he would be called upon to play this role.  He has largely scored off the ball, as 77.8 % of his 2’s were assisted and 95.7% of his 3’s were, which makes sense given Morant’s playmaking ability (when he wasn’t injured).  During their 5-game winning streak, he has shot 54.5% from 3 and while Morant was out, he shot 43.3% from deep.  While I expected Grayson Allen would be a clutch shooter for them, I wasn’t expecting Bane to be shooting at such a high level as a rookie.

 

Xavier Tillman Sr.:  Ability to suddenly thrive in new minutes

The Grizzlies got off to a rough start in their first few games:  started 1-2, but their two best players in Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. were both injured by the end of the third game.  On top of that, Justise Winslow and Jackson haven’t played a game yet this year, Dillon Brooks has been inconsistently trying to be the top scorer, Kyle Anderson fell off after a hot start, the team is shooting the 26^th best 3-point percentage in the league with 33.3% (for context, their two best shooters from deep are rookie Desmond Bane and backup center Gorgui Dieng), and most of the members of their makeshift starting lineup have a negative box +/-.  That said, they were 4-4 before Morant returned for their last two games and are currently on a 5-game win streak.  A major part of this must be attributed to Tillman, who is currently averaging 8.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 56.1 FG%, and 1.4 SPG in 20.8 MPG while also having a 1.7 DBPM after not playing in their first 5 games.  During their win streak, he bumped his averages to 10.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 59.5 FG%, and 1.8 SPG while being a +3.6.  He has still struggled from the line and from deep, but he is essential to their hot play as of late that has somehow helped the Grizzlies to a 7-6 record.

 

Isaiah Joe:  Playing the role needed from him

When Seth Curry had Covid-19 and missed time, Philadelphia got desperate and eventually turned to a variety of younger options to fill the void.  Enter Isaiah Joe off the bench, who was coming off an inconsistent sophomore year at Arkansas that consisted of him scoring 16.9 PPG but only shooting 36.7% from the field.  In the 5-game stretch of playing at least 15 minutes each game, he averaged 12.4 PPG while shooting 43.6% from 3.  Overall, he is shooting 38.6% from 3 and is attempting 78.6% of his field goal attempts from behind the arc.  While he played on the ball a lot in college and struggled, every one of his 3-pointers came off an assist.  Overall, in that span he played as he could in place of Seth Curry (they went 2-3, but he had a +4 in one loss and the other featured none of their starters) and played to his strengths while at it.

 

Jae’Sean Tate:  Shooting ability

I’ll finish off with the rookie who went undrafted in 2018 and played in Belgium and Australia before signing with Houston and getting substantial minutes out of desperation.  In college, he was not a good shooter; in 4 years at Ohio State, he shot 27.7% from 3 and 55.5% from the line, but still had a 55.2% FG%.  When he was in Australia, he shot 37.8% from 3, but only attempted 1.8 per game and shot 59.8% from the line.  So far, he has improved to 66.7% FT% while shooting 35.7% from 3 on 2 attempts per game.  His focus is still on shots closer to the rim though, as they should be; he is shooting 56.7% from 2 and 68.3% in the 0-3 range (where he has attempted 43.2% of his field goals).  He has also been a plus defender so far.  While Houston has had a difficult season, Tate has played well so far and should thrive as a bench player if surrounded by strong shooters.

 

What do you think about these rookies so far?  Are there any rookies that you have liked watching so far?  Let me know in the comments!