NBA All-Star Starters Selected and Predictions for Reserves

On Thursday February 18th, the NBA announced the starters of the controversial 2021 All-Star Game.  While I didn’t make official predictions in the blog for the starters, I wasn’t surprised by the results (usually they end up being close to the fan results).  That said, I did make predictions for the reserves.  The reserves will be announced on the 23rd (Tuesday) and there will be 7 from each conference (2 guards, 3 forwards, 2 wild cards).

My predictions for the reserves are often accurate, but usually there are 8-10 All-Stars that seem to be locks.  Last year, when I predicted both the starters and reserves, I got all the starters correct and did well with the predictions; I got 10 out of 12 players right in the East (I predicted Nikola Vucevic and Bradley Beal and was incorrect about Bam Adebayo and I think Kyle Lowry) and all 12 right in the West (I also got that Devin Booker would be an injury replacement correct, but before I pat myself on the back too much I honestly figured only the 12 originally named and Booker had a chance).  This year, I feel good about 4 reserves in the East and 5 reserves in the West.

 

Starters

East

  • Bradley Beal, WAS, G
  • Kyrie Irving, BRK, G
  • Kevin Durant, BRK, F (Captain)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL, F
  • Joel Embiid, PHI, C

West

  • Stephen Curry, GSW, G
  • Luka Doncic, DAL, G
  • LeBron James, LAL, F (Captain)
  • Nikola Jokic, DEN, C
  • Kawhi Leonard, LAC, F

 

For the East, I agree with Beal, Durant, Antetokounmpo, and Embiid without any questions asked.  As for Irving, I think he’s a fair choice; I have been torn whether the other starter should be Irving, James Harden, or Jaylen Brown.  All three of them have been excellent this year, but I’m inclined to say Brown because he’s played more (and likely because I’m slightly biased as a Celtics fan).  For the West, I agree with Curry, James, Jokic, and Leonard without a doubt.  I disagree with the choice of Luka Doncic; while he’s been putting up monster numbers and keeping a disappointing team afloat, Damian Lillard has been also putting up incredible numbers and keeping a team with their second and third best players injured deep in the playoff race.  While I think Doncic should be an All-Star, I think he should not have been named a starter over Lillard (Doncic held the tiebreaker due to fan voting results).

 

My Projected Reserves

These are the players I expect to be named to the All-Star game.  They are not necessarily the players I would select (in fact, there are 3 that I would not choose), but are those that I expect to be named.

 

East

  • James Harden, BRK, G
  • Jaylen Brown, BOS, G
  • Jayson Tatum, BOS, F
  • Khris Middleton, MIL, F
  • Bam Adebayo, MIA, F/C
  • Trae Young, ATL, G
  • Ben Simmons, PHI, G

 

Say what you will about how Harden handled himself with the Houston situation, but he is still one of the best guards in the league.  While he has been more ball dominant over the past several years, he has been an elite point guard with the Nets, average 11.7 APG with the team (11.3 APG overall, leading the league).  His season totals currently stand at 24.4 PPG with a 38.6 3P% and 57.7 eFG%, 7.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG, and 0.8 BPG (Nets totals are 24.2 PPG with 40.8 3P% and 59.8 eFG%, 8.2 RPG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.8 BPG).  This would be his 9th All-Star Game.

Jaylen Brown is having a breakthrough year with the Celtics, averaging 25.6 PPG on 50.6 FG%, 41.6 3P%, and 57.0 eFG%, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, and 0.6 BPG.  He has also played solid defense while often guarding opposing teams’ tougher assignments, with 0.9 DWS.  Boston has needed him and Tatum to run the offense as Kemba Walker has been inconsistent returning from his injury, and Brown has arguably been Boston’s best player this year.  This would be his 1st All-Star Game.

Tatum has been slowed down a bit due to contracting Covid, but is still averaging 25.8 PPG on 38.8 3P% and 51.6 eFG%, 7.0 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.3 SPG, and 0.5 BPG.  Like Brown, he also playing solid on the defensive end, with a 1.0 DWS.  Due to injuries to Walker and Marcus Smart, the struggles of Jeff Teague, and the departure of Gordon Hayward, Tatum has often played as the de facto point guard and has been decent at it.  This would be his 2nd All-Star Game.

One year after narrowly missing a 50-40-90 season (49.7 FG%/41.5 3P%/91.6 FT%), Middleton is close to this again, with 50.1%/42.6%/89.2% while also toting a 57.9 eFG%.  He also has been averaging 20.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 5.7 APG, and 1.0 SPG.  While the Bucks have been worse in the regular season this year than they were last year, Middleton’s increased playmaking, consistent shooting, and ability to play well with Jrue Holiday have made him look more like the end of game finisher they desperately need.  This would be his 3rd All-Star Game.

While the Heat have struggled so far this year (13-17), Adebayo has taken his offensive game to a new level, averaging 19.6 PPG on 56.6 FG% and 56.9 eFG% (his FT% has also jumped to 84.5%), 9.4 RPG, 5.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, and 1.0 BPG.  He has been strong defensively as well, with 1.5 DWS and a 2.0 DBPM.  The main cases against him are his team’s record and the fact that there have been a lot of talk about his turnover numbers (3.0), but last year he had 2.8 so I don’t think that’s an issue.  This would be his 2nd All-Star Game.

While the Hawks are currently 11th, Young has been putting up strong numbers overall, with 26.6 PPG with 37.1 3P% and 50.1 eFG%, 9.3 APG, and 3.9 RPG.  After missing out on being a repeat starter, there is still a case against him:  he is a horrible defender (his -1.3 DBPM ranks 154th out of 193 and that’s an improvement for him), he had a 9 game run earlier in the season where the team went 3-6 and he shot just 33.1% from the field and 24.0% from deep and having 4.7 TOV (he still had 18.4 PPG and 9.2 APG), he still doesn’t know how to play off the ball, and there is a case that he is scoring/assisting selfishly.  That said, I expect his flashy play and high-volume scoring will likely allow him to squeak in.  This would be his 2nd All-Star Game.

Ben Simmons is the one that I feel least confident in for the East.  The 76ers have been great this year so it makes sense to have more than one All-Star.  He has been an exceptional defender again, 1.7 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 1.3 DWS, and a 2.6 DBPM.  While his offensive numbers are respectable (15.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 8.0 APG, 56.2 FG%, and 56.3 eFG%), his offensive game has not improved from his previous years (in fact, he has career lows in PPG and field goals attempted per game).  I think he will be named an All-Star despite that, but I do not consider him a lock.

Some other players who are likely (and could be called upon in the event of an injury) include Zach LaVine, Gordon Hayward, Domantas Sabonis, Julius Randle, Tobias Harris, Fred VanVleet, Nikola Vucevic, Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, and Jerami Grant.

 

West

  • Damian Lillard, POR, G
  • Donovan Mitchell, UTA, G
  • Anthony Davis, LAL, F
  • Paul George, LAC, F
  • Rudy Gobert, UTA, C
  • Zion Williamson, NOP, F
  • Chris Paul, PHO, G


Lillard narrowly missed being named a starter and several (including myself) consider this to be a snub.  He is averaging 30.0 PPG with a 38.5 3P% and 54.7 eFG%, 7.9 APG, 4.5 RPG, and 1.1 SPG while carrying a team that should is missing CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, and Zach Collins to be 5th.  This would be his 6th All-Star Game.

Mitchell has improved from his All-Star season last year and is having a great year so far; he has 24.6 PPG with 38.9 3P% and 51.5 eFG%, 5.1 APG, and 4.4 RPG.  He’s not an elite defender by any means (some statistics consider him a minus defender), but he is capable (1.1 DWS) and really doesn’t need to be a superstar defensively if Rudy Gobert is behind him.  He has improved his 3-point shooting percentages and volume as well as his playmaking; he’s the best offensive player on the best team in the NBA.  This would be his 2nd All-Star Game.

While Davis has been disappointing so far this year (I had him 3rd in MVP voting prior to the season), he has still played at a high level, averaging 22.5 PPG on 53.3% from the field and a 55.5 eFG%, 8.4 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.8 BPG, and 1.3 SPG.  While his defense isn’t what it was last year, he has a 2.1 DBPM and 1.7 DWS.  The biggest question right now for him is if he will be able to play; he is currently scheduled to be out for 4 weeks now, so he might be replaced if selected and still dealing with the injury.  This would be his 8th All-Star Game.

Paul George might have struggled in the Bubble (and especially in the playoffs last year), but he has thrived offensively this year.  So far, he has 23.9 PPG with 50.4 FG%, 47.2 3P%, and 61.4 eFG%, 6.2 RPG, 5.4 APG, and 1.2 SPG.  While his defense has taken a dip, his offense is much improved; he has career highs in FG%, 3P% (70 points higher than his next highest), eFG%, FT% (90.7%), and APG.  He is also having a 50-40-90 season so far as his efficiency is likely helped by Leonard’s increase in games played.  This would be his 6th All-Star Game.

While Gobert’s offensive numbers have taken a little bit of a dip compared to the previous years, but he still has been one of the best players on the best team in the NBA.  He is averaging 14.0 PPG with 63.8 FG% and 64.0 2P%, 13.5 RPG, and 2.7 BPG.  He continues to be elite at the defensive end; in addition to the block total, he has a 1.9 OBPM and a league-leading 2.1 DWS.  He has been a staple on the defensive end for the Jazz this year; if they remain in first, I expect that he will be frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year.  This would be his 2nd All-Star Game.

Despite New Orleans’ struggles so far, I expect one of either Williamson or Brandon Ingram will be named an All-Star; Williamson seems the more likely the two due to his high offensive numbers and highlight reel status.  He is averaging 25.0 PPG with a 62.0 FG% and 62.7 eFG%, 6.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, and 1.0 SPG.  His defense is still underwhelming, and advance metrics have him as a negative, which is odd considering how excellent he was at Duke.  He has thrived while being used as a point forward and still has some highlight reel offensive plays, which might be enough.  This would be his 1st All-Star Game.

I expect one Phoenix player to be named an All-Star given that they are currently in 4th.  While it could be Devin Booker, Paul’s presence as a leader, the point guard, and one of the top players on the team makes him a frontrunner (he also is having a more analytic-friendly season).  Paul has 17.1 PPG with 49.5 FG%, 39.8 3P%, and 55.6 eFG%, 8.5 APG, 4.6 RPG, and 1.2 SPG.  He’s still a plus defender as a 6-1 guard at the age of 35 and is having one of the most efficient seasons of his career, approaching 50-40-90 (he’s currently leading this league with a 97.2 FT%).  This would be his 11th All-Star Game.

Some other players who could be named (or could replace Davis if he is forced to sit out) include Devin Booker, Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan, Brandon Ingram, De’Aaron Fox, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

 

Other possibilities

These players also have a chance.  I ranked them based on most likely to be named.

East

  • Zach Lavine, CHI, G
  • Gordon Hayward, CHA, F
  • Domantas Sabonis, IND, F/C
  • Nikola Vucevic, ORL, C
  • Tobias Harris, PHI, F
  • Fred VanVleet, TOR, G
  • Julius Randle, NYK, F
  • Kyle Lowry, TOR, G
  • Jrue Holiday, MIL, G
  • Pascal Siakam, TOR, F
  • Collin Sexton, CLE, G
  • Jerami Grant, DET, F
  • Malcolm Brogdon, IND, G
  • Terry Rozier, CHA, G


West

  • Devin Booker, PHO, G
  • Mike Conley, UTA, G
  • Brandon Ingram, NOP, F
  • DeMar DeRozan, F
  • De’Aaron Fox, SAC, G
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC, G
  • Jamal Murray, DEN, G
  • Malik Beasley, MIN, G


Honorable Mention

I want to give a shout out to CJ McCollum of Portland; he was having an All-NBA type season through the team’s first 13 games before being injured and declared out for 4 weeks.  If he had been selected, it would have been his 1st, and it’s disappointing to see his injury given how he’s frequently been one of the top players to not be named an All-Star.

 

Bonus:  My Choice Reserves

While I do not have a say in who would be reserves for the All-Star Game, these would be my selections.

 

East

  • Jaylen Brown, BOS, G
  • James Harden, BRK, G
  • Jayson Tatum, BOS, F
  • Khris Middleton, MIL, F
  • Bam Adebayo, MIA, F/C
  • Gordon Hayward, CHA, F
  • Julius Randle, NYK, F


For my descriptions regarding Brown, Harden, Tatum, Middleton, and Adebayo, please see the sections of them in the section regarding my predictions.

I omitted Trae Young due to his atrocious defense and lack of team success compared to Hayward and Randle.  I omitted Simmons because I thought the offensive games of Hayward and Randle warranted them for an All-Star appearance more than Simmons and because I often didn’t feel like I’ve been watching an All-Star when I watched Simmons play.

While many criticized Charlotte for signing Hayward (in particular, I found the amount risky considering his recent injury history), Hayward has found a home in Charlotte while providing a spark, discipline, experience, and the ability to be the top option on a team full of young players.  He has 21.9 PPG with 43.2 3P% and 55.3 eFG%, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, and 1.1 SPG.  While his DBPM is negative, this is likely attributed to the starting lineup’s defensive struggles around him; he still has 0.9 DWS and has a lot of times where he has looked good.  This would be his 2nd All-Star Game.

I think it’s safe to say that very few expected the Knicks to be in 8th this late in the season (I certainly didn’t), and Randle has been a major part of this.  He is averaging 23.2 PPG with 40.7 3P% and 53.5 eFG%, 10.9 RPG, and 5.5 APG.  He has thrived in a point forward role that has been necessary for most of the season given their lack of point guard success.  On top of that, he is also a plus defender for the first time in his career, with a 0.8 DBPM and 1.7 DWS.  He has career best numbers in every category as the Knicks have shocked everyone.  This would be his 1st All-Star Game.

Some others I considered (and would be used if injured) include Ben Simmons, Domantas Sabonis, Trae Young, Zach LaVine, Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, Jrue Holiday, and Fred VanVleet.

 

West

  • Damian Lillard, POR, G
  • Donovan Mitchell, UTA, G
  • Paul George, LAC, F
  • Anthony Davis, LAL, F
  • Rudy Gobert, UTA, C
  • Chris Paul, PHO, G
  • DeMar DeRozan, SAS, F


For my descriptions regarding Lillard, Mitchell, George, Davis, Gobert, and Paul, please see my sections of them in the section regarding my predictions.

For me, it’s not as much a question of whether Zion Williamson should be an All-Star as it is whether another player is more deserving; for me, I believe DeRozan should absolutely be named one before Williamson.  The Pelicans have struggled and are only 12-17 while the Spurs are 16-11 with DeRozan leading the team in PPG and APG.  DeRozan also has higher advanced defensive metrics, which shouldn’t make since due to the perception that Williamson is a much better defender.  That said, the truth is that there are many times Zion is nowhere to be found defensively (also many times where he’s MIA in transition defense) while DeRozan appears to be trying on that end more frequently.

For DeRozan, he is averaging 19.8 PPG with a 48.8 FG%, 51.4 2P%, 51.2 eFG%, 6.9 APG, and 5.0 RPG.  While he has been a de facto a point guard for them while frequently playing power forward, he only has 1.6 TOV, which is his lowest per game since his rookie year; on top of that, he has a career high in assists.  He has also increased his 3-pointers attempted and is shooting 33.3%, much higher than his 20.0% in his previous two seasons with San Antonio.  I don’t expect he will be an All-Star unless as a replacement, but I think he deserves it.  This would be his 5th All-Star Game.

If Anthony Davis does miss the All-Star Game due to injury, I would probably name Devin Booker as his replacement.  Other players I would consider are Zion Williamson, Mike Conley, Brandon Ingram, De’Aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Malik Beasley.

 

What do you think about the selected starters?  Who do you hope to see in the All-Star Game?  Let me know in the comments!

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