My Second Half Predictions

Now that the second half of the NBA season is getting underway, many are starting to make various predictions for the second half of the season.  I have copied this idea and have made 10 predictions regarding the second half of the season and the playoffs (along with a couple that involve the offseason).  All statistics are prior to the start of the second half and are from Basketball-Reference unless otherwise stated.

 

The Celtics will wait until the offseason to use the Gordon Hayward Trade Exception and Danny Ainge’s job will be on the line.

There are five reasons I think the trade exception will not be used until the offseason.  First, Ainge has specified that he will only make a trade for a player that is a right fit.  Second, using it now will be difficult financially next season if the player has multiple years remaining and I think Ainge would find it difficult to justify using it on a player on an expiring deal.  Third, it can be used in a sign-and-trade next season when there are quality (and underrated) players that will be entering free agency (personally, I would try to use the trade exception then unless they can acquire someone reasonably).  Fourth, there is a chance that there will be more buyers than sellers and several buyers could have more valuable assets than the Celtics (think the 76ers or Heat).  The biggest reason they might wait is because several executives have accused Ainge of trying to trade them Kemba Walker while withholding information regarding his injury.  While there have not been as many conversations regarding this lately, it could force Boston to part ways with Ainge if enough teams refuse to work with him.   The only wrinkle in this prediction is that Harrison Barnes has been linked to them, but if the Heat can’t find anybody else then they would probably have a better offer.

 

While the Nets will make it to the Eastern Conference Finals, they will have at least one series in the first two rounds that goes to 7 games.

This opinion is not a way of saying that they’re a bad team who will struggle in the playoffs; in fact, I currently consider them the frontrunner to get out of the East right now.  Rather, their defense will give up a substantial number of points where they might not be able to outscore their opponents (despite having the best offensive rating in the league of 118.2, per NBA.com).  Their defensive rating is 113.6 (per NBA.com), which ranks 26^th in the league, and they are giving up 116.1 PPG, which ranks 27^th.  They are also 28^th in 2-pointers allowed (58.0 per game) and 23^rd in offensive rebounds allowed (10.1 per game).  Unless they add a very strong defensive player (they’re not done making moves, so it’s possible), there will be games where it could be a shootout if they are facing a strong offensive team.

 

The 76ers will not make it to the Eastern Conference Finals unless they make at least one more move.

Philadelphia has certainly outperformed my expectations, especially considering that their first half wasn’t necessarily easy (they have one of the easier second half per Tankathon).  In particular, Joel Embiid has played like an MVP candidate, Ben Simmons has been incredible, and Doc Rivers has cracked the code with how Tobias Harris can fit into this offense.  That said, I’m not as confident with the rest of the team.  While I love Seth Curry, I think he’s best suited in a bench role to create for himself off the bench and hide his defensive deficiencies a bit; he has had inconsistent points this season while starting.  Danny Green has his worst DBPM (0.5) since 2010-11 (his second season) and has a career worst BPM (-0.7) despite being a starter; at this point, he should be a bench player.  As for the bench, I don’t trust most of them on a consistent basis.  I think Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz have been a bit too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable with them during the playoffs, Dwight Howard isn’t an offensive focal point at this point in his career, Matisse Thybulle has looked horrid offensively, and trusting a rookie in Tyrese Maxey isn’t the best strategy come playoff time.  While Harris along with the bench players has worked well, they are pretty thin.  While Kyle Lowry has been rumored and would be an amazing fit, even someone like J.J. Redick or Lonzo Ball would also be a good fit with the team.  I think Darryl Morey has something up his sleeve.

 

The Clippers will not make it to the Western Conference Finals.

For everyone arguing the Clippers appear to be a new team, I agreed with you for about 2 weeks.  Now, the major differences:  Serge Ibaka can stretch the floor better than Montrezl Harrell and is a slightly better defender, Kawhi Leonard is playing back-to-backs (for the most part), Paul George has emphasized he needs to be a better leader this season, and different players are taking the complementary roles.  What has remained the same is that they struggle in any close games and could use somebody to run the offense.  Currently, most of their point guard minutes are played by Patrick Beverley (who is probably better off the ball anyways), Reggie Jackson (who shouldn’t be averaging over 20 MPG on this team), and Lou Williams (who isn’t great at setting up for teammates).  Their leaders in assists are George (5.4 APG) and Leonard (4.9), and the strategy isn’t working.  While they were 24-14 in the first half, they were 10-10 in games decided by fewer than 10 points and 7-11 in clutch games per NBA.com.  In clutch play, they have the league’s worst defensive rating with 130.2 and net rating with -26.4.  Add to the fact that Patrick Beverley is still getting into foul trouble (3.2 PF per game), I don’t trust many of the players this season, and George missed a game because he drank too much coffee (seriously).  Also, if Leonard is still has injured as everybody discusses him being, wouldn’t playing back-to-backs really come back to bite them in the playoffs?  In other words, they could be out after one round, likely two.

 

The Utah Jazz will make it to the Western Conference Finals.

The Jazz finished the season with the best record in the NBA and are blowing teams out a lot, with 23 of their 27 wins won by 10 or more points.  They are 4^th in offensive rating, 4^th in defensive rating, and honestly have 9 players who receive substantial playing time that I would feel comfortable playing in the playoffs, while I also feel 100% confident that an endgame lineup with Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Royce O’Neill, and either Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, or Jordan Clarkson would work to great effect (in many matchups I’d play Ingles due to his defensive ability compared to the other three).  The only team that I would balk at saying I feel comfortable with them beating is the Lakers, but the good news for Utah is that they have the easiest second half schedule, so I expect they will retain the top seed and wouldn’t have to worry about the better L.A. team until the Western Conference Finals.

 

No player will finish with more than 70% of the first place MVP votes.

This is a tightly contested MVP vote; Caesar’s Sportsbook now lists Joel Embiid as the odds-on most likely to win, which makes him the third player to be named prior to the second half starting, following Luka Doncic and LeBron James.  That said, Basketball-Reference lists Embiid as the third most likely MVP candidate with a 15.3% chance, trailing Nikola Jokic (46.1%) and James Harden (16.0%), and James with only a 3.2% chance behind Jokic, Harden, Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo (8.1%), and Damian Lillard (3.4%).  Harden will likely be knocked if some voters have a distaste in their mouth and the fact that he could compete with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant for his own team, but we could also see Steph Curry, Doncic, or Kawhi Leonard sneak in there if their teams play well in the second half.  If Utah stays in first, they could also have a candidate sneak in there; Rudy Gobert is currently 10^th on Basketball-Reference.

 

The Hawks will miss the playoffs and Travis Schlenk will be fired.

The Hawks finished the first half with a 16-20 record and half a game out of the 10^th spot.  The good news for them is that they have the 8^th easiest schedule in the league.  That said, they have a lot to bank on regarding the other teams:  Philadelphia and Brooklyn will likely continue to thrive the rest of the way, Milwaukee will get Jrue Holiday back, Boston will have Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart fully back, Miami seems to have recovered, Toronto seems to have gotten back onto their feet, and Indiana will likely have T.J. Warren and Caris LaVert return at some point.  The other teams ahead of them are New York, Charlotte, and Chicago.  New York has a difficult schedule remaining, but they have been playing strong defense so far and seem to be committed to winning, so I expect them to finish above Atlanta.  While the Hornets have an average difficulty season remaining, they have played around .500 so far and LaMelo Ball has improved substantially lately, which will help them; I faith in them staying around where they are.  Chicago is the wildcard team there, as they will likely trade Thaddeus Young and have a difficult schedule remaining.  That said, even if they fall, Washington is only 2 wins behind at Atlanta and finished the first half 8-3; while they will have their moments, I think they are starting to figure it out and I expect they could pass them as they also don’t have a brutal schedule remaining (11^th easiest).  Once that happens, I think Schlenk will be the next to go after passing on Luka Doncic to take Trae Young, who hasn’t shown he can be a competent defender or the top player on a playoff team.  Speaking of Young…

 

Trae Young will average 35 PPG the second half of the season and shoot under 35% from the field during a 2 week stretch.

Young was an All-Star in his second season when he averaged 29.6 PPG and 9.3 APG on a 20-47 Atlanta team, but this year wasn’t named one while averaging 26.4 PPG and 9.4 APG on a 16-20 Atlanta team that is actually competing for the playoffs.  After being rewarded as an All-Star in a year he put up monster numbers despite the team being horrible, I expect we could see him revert to some of this play.  As an example from when he was in college, there was one game when the game went to overtime and he was the only Oklahoma player to attempt a shot during overtime in the losing effort.  While he was the best player on that team, that isn’t a way to win a basketball game (as evident by the outcome).  With the Hawks reportedly listening to offers for John Collins, this could make Young’s route to monster scoring numbers even easier.  As for the part about him shooting under 35% from the field during a stretch, he is only shooting 43% from the field this year and had a stretch from January 1^st-18^th where he shot 33.1% from the field, 24.0% from 3, and averaged 18.4 PPG despite 16.4 attempts per game from the floor and 5.6 3PA while the team went 3-6.  If Collins is traded, the additional defensive attention on Young could be too much to overcome.

 

The Timberwolves will finish at least 5 games behind anybody else.

The Timberwolves finished the first half of the season 3 games behind the Pistons, the next worst team.  They have the 4^th hardest remaining strength of schedule (per Tankathon), as their opponents have a current .520 winning percent.  While D’Angelo Russell is reportedly close to resuming on-court work, I expect he won’t be playing for at least another week (maybe more depending on how he fully recovers).  Add to the fact that Malik Beasley is still suspended for another 9 games and now suddenly the most reliable offensive options after Karl-Anthony Towns are Anthony Edwards and Naz Reid…I like Reid, but as a top 3 option offensively, ouch.  The team is already 28^th in offensive rating (105.0 per NBA.com), and 25^th in defensive rating (113.4 per NBA.com), so the next few games will be a brutal start to a long second half.

 

There will be multiple teams that have games postponed within two weeks of the second half.

While the All-Star game appeared to be a success in keeping players Covid free, the league’s fear wasn’t the game itself; rather, it was all the players who travelled to Miami.  As mentioned on Brian Windhorst’s podcast The Hoop Collective, players not playing in the All-Star game were required to get tested each day they were off and there were so many players who were getting tested in Miami at their arena that they had to schedule their tests.  On top of that, they had private planes for each All-Star to leave during the game and multiple planes flew players to Miami after the game.  In short, I expect that even if players were following protocols on their vacations that shear exposure of the high number of people traveling to the state makes this unfortunately a safer bet.

 

What do you think about these predictions?  What do you expect to see in the second half of the season?  Let me know in the comments!