NBA Rumor Mill Scores
Throughout the season and offseason, there are many rumors and theories that are spit around; while some are total nonsense, others have at least a slither of truth to them. This year, there are several that have sprouted this year, whether it is regarding player movement, teams making changes, and the state of certain teams. In this post, I will discuss 12 of these such rumors and how much truth I think there is on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being false or almost impossible and 10 being true or almost guaranteed.
The 76ers
will trade Ben Simmons
After a horrible playoffs, the 76ers will try to shake it up
and give up on Ben Simmons.
Truth score: 5
After a horrific playoffs for Simmons and a disappointing
Eastern Conference Semifinals exit for the team with the best record in the
East, trade rumors for Simmons started to spiral. This makes sense considering the awkward fit
alongside Joel Embiid and Simmons’ constant offensive struggles (most notably
his recent ones). The bigger question is
whether they can get the return that would make it worthwhile; the first offer
they received was from Indiana, where they would receive Malcolm Brogdon and a first-round
pick; while I love Brogdon, he will not make the team better than Ben Simmons
would. Considering they would be trading
him at the lowest point in his career in terms of value, they might opt to keep
him if they cannot find anyone that would improve the team. Admittedly, I’m not sure what team has a deal
to offer, since they are likely looking for players who can contribute
immediately and can replace an All-NBA player; in other words, good luck. That said, Simmons is super talented and
could entice a team at different stages (especially one in a smaller market).
The Hawks
are for real
After an incredible second half and a surprise run to the
Eastern Conference Finals, the Atlanta Hawks are a legitimate threat in the
Eastern Conference effective immediately.
Truth score: 9
I said something similar about the Heat after they made a
surprise run to the Finals last year, and it hasn’t panned out this
season. There are a couple differences
between the two teams, the biggest being that multiple players for the Heat
played much better in the playoffs than they had previously on offense,
something that wasn’t true for the Hawks.
The only Hawks player who scored more points per game in the playoffs
and played in most of their games was Trae Young, who did this attempting 4.7
more shots per game and shooting around the same percent. Further, most Hawks players played either similarly
or worse on offense during the playoffs than they had in the regular
season. What caused the difference? Part of it was that they did play slightly
better defense in the playoffs, but a bigger part is that they were playing
like this much of the second half of the season under Nate McMillan. As for keeping this up for next season, John
Collins is a restricted free agent who I expect them to retain. The other players remaining are Lou Williams
(I’m not sure what will happen with him), Tony Snell (didn’t play much in the
playoffs), Solomon Hill (didn’t play much in the playoffs), and Brandon Goodwin
(didn’t play much in the playoffs). They
could try to run it back with as much of the team as they want; they might have
the cap space. Even still, this team is
not going away.
The James
Harden trade is a disaster for the Nets
After trading a solid amount of depth and their future to
obtain Harden, Brooklyn’s elimination in the second round of the playoffs
suggests that they are in trouble.
Truth score: 1
I don’t understand this one at all. Had the Nets been healthy this year and
playoffs, they likely would have gone to the NBA Finals (the Bucks squeaked
past them while Kevin Durant was the only fully healthy one and I expect they
would have torched the Hawks). Harden is
almost always healthy, as there were only 3 seasons where he played fewer than
70 games: 2010-11 (62 out of 66 in a
strike-shortened season), 2019-2020 (68 out of 72 in a pandemic-shortened
season), and this season (44 out of 72); in other words, this year is a fluke
in that regard. While Kyrie Irving is
frequently injured, Durant isn’t frequently injured, so pairing Harden and
Durant will help. As for the fact that
they didn’t win make it to the Championship:
the Heat’s Big 3 of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh didn’t win
their first title until year 2. Now
isn’t the time to panic about them.
The Heat
will be making a big move
After a disappointing season, Pat Riley will do his magic
and make a massive move this season, vaulting the Heat into the conversation
for the Eastern Conference Title.
Truth score: 2
It’s not as much a matter of Riley pulling off the magic as
it is the availability of a player to make a big move for. In terms of making a trade, Miami has limited
draft capital to give up if they were to trade for a player. I expect Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are
likely off limits and Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala are available if Miami
picks up their options, which leaves Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, and KZ
Okpala as desirable pieces under contract.
At this point, Herro’s value has decreased and might not give the same
return, given his struggles at times this year and reports of him rubbing Miami
the wrong way, and I don’t think that Achiuwa or Okpala are quite good enough
to swing the needle in a trade. As for
free agency, the biggest names that I would expect them to target would be Kawhi
Leonard (more to come on him later, but don’t get your hopes up, Miami), Chris
Paul (possible, but I honestly see New York as more likely), and Kyle Lowry (I
think he’d favor Philadelphia if they can make it work). Some guys who are a step down that I could
see them targeting are Mike Conley (I expect Utah will fight hard for him
though), DeMar DeRozan (that would be a bad fit with shooting), John Collins (I
think Atlanta will match any offer in restricted free agency), and Tim Hardaway
Jr. (I don’t see this one happening though).
In other words, I wouldn’t get my hopes too high for the Heat.
The Jazz
are in crisis mode
Their Western Conference Semifinal series against the Clippers
exposed Rudy Gobert, showing that a team with an old-school center cannot win a
championship in this current day.
Truth score: 3
So many people are focused on the fact that Rudy Gobert was
unable to guard Terrance Mann in the final two games of the series and that
Mann played Gobert off the floor. Nobody
seems to be focusing on the fact that Mann shot hotter than he ever has in that
series, shooting 54.1% from deep on 3.9 attempts per game, including a whopping
7-10 in Game 6 (for comparison, he shot 41.8% on 1.4 attempts for the
season). This wasn’t the only fluke;
L.A. shot 43.3% from deep in that series, despite shooting 37.3% in the
previous series and 33.5% in the next series.
In particular, Paul George shot 41.7% from deep (33.6% for the
playoffs), Marcus Morris shot 58.9% from 2 (47.2% for the season), Nicholas
Batum shot 51.6% from 3 (40.4% for the season), Reggie Jackson shot 50% from 3
and averaged 18.0 PPG (43.3%/10.7 PPG for the season), and Luke Kennard shot
55% from 3 (44.6% for the season). I
wouldn’t be worried about the fact that everyone shot better than average and
that Reggie Jackson couldn’t be stopped (especially since the Suns struggled
against him also). The reason there is
some concern is that the bench struggled mightily during the series, which was
never an issue for them in the season.
Bradley
Beal will be traded
After a couple years of rumors, the Washington Wizards decide
it is time for a rebuild and trade their star, Bradley Beal.
Truth score: 4
This is an interesting case where this could go either way,
but I’m inclined to say they won’t be traded.
I think that now that Washington finally made the playoffs again, the
Wizards won’t be as pressured to trade Beal and he won’t be as adamant to be
traded, especially after Russell Westbrook and the team had such a hot
finish. Further, I expect the Wizards will
convince themselves that they will be a competitive team this year, making them
less inclined to trade Beal unless he requests one. Still, the East could be good this year, and
I expect the Wizards will fall if a team outside the play in improves (Toronto
and Chicago are ones to watch in that regard).
If they start in 12th, would Beal demand a trade by the
deadline? If he were to be traded, expect
Golden State, Boston, New York, Toronto, Atlanta, or New Orleans to be frontrunners.
The
Dallas Mavericks are in trouble, indicated by their turnover
Now that Don Nelson has been fired and Rick Carlisle left
for Indiana, the Mavericks are with some issues that could be a sign of
turmoil.
Truth score: 3
This one feels like much ado about nothing to me. Carlisle was on the hot seat due to his
contentious relationship with Luka Doncic and the team’s lack of playoff
success since 2011; he had the opportunity to take a more guaranteed job due to
several openings, so this was the right time to leave. As for Nelson, he hit a slam dunk by drafting
Doncic and suggesting Giannis Antetokounmpo should be drafted, though he has
had several moves that did not work out over the last few years. While some might point to several recent
draft selections that have not worked out (besides Doncic and Jalen Brunson) or
the Porzingis trade, I would say the most glaring was giving up Seth Curry for Josh
Richardson, a move that I was suspect about and really didn’t pan out in the
playoffs. While Mark Cuban ultimately
signs off on all decisions, Nelson is still the fall guy since he is the GM and
ultimately it is his job to make those moves.
These offseason moves were moves made prior to them reaching the point
where they were truly in trouble and feared Doncic leaving.
Mike
Budenholzer’s job is still on the line
Since the Bucks are in a Championship or bust mindset, coach
Mike Budenholzer’s job is not guaranteed for next season despite leading the
team to the NBA Finals.
Truth score: 5
Many commentators and fans speculated that Budenholzer’s job
would be on the line unless the Bucks made it to the NBA Finals and have
assumed that he will be the coach. That
said, I think his job isn’t quite safe given how the team has played. There were multiple games in the Conference
Semifinals and Conference Finals where the team looked like they didn’t have a
game plan. One example in the second
round was when they didn’t target James Harden on offense when he couldn’t walk
and one in the third round was how they didn’t target the paint during select
quarters or even entire games. While
they won both series and thrived against the Heat in the first round, they
struggled with game plan and execution in Game 1 and at times during Game 2 of
the Finals. Losing this series might
finally show that the team had in fact been going through the motions for too
much of the playoffs.
The
Warriors will be making a notable move
To try to contend one last time with their core of Steph Curry,
Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, the Warriors will be making a move that brings
back another quality player, though might not return a star.
Truth score: 10
This makes too much sense for it to not happen. They have the 7th and 14th
pick in the draft, which alone would likely be enough to get a good starter (if
not more). Further, if they wanted to
target a bigger name, they could always include James Wiseman who still has a
lot of potential but is raw. They also could
use Andrew Wiggins if salary matching is needed for a bigger salary and they
have other players on smaller deals as well.
Ultimately, there might not be a super team that is the frontrunner this
season (we’ll see about Brooklyn), as there has not been in the last couple
seasons, and Golden State might view themselves as a possible contender with at
least one more player. That said, there
is the risk that Klay Thompson might have issues fully recovering from his
injuries considering he hasn’t played in the NBA for 2 seasons. The major thing to watch is Curry’s extension
and how that plays a role with this.
Kawhi
Leonard will leave the Clippers
After the Clippers missed out on the NBA Finals again (this
time with Leonard injured), Kawhi decides he has had enough with this team and
tries somewhere he can win.
Truth score: 2
All indications at this time suggest that Leonard loves L.A.
and will only consider leaving for basketball purposes. Further, I doubt he’d leave the Lakers to be
second fiddle to LeBron James while also requiring integration with another
superstar in Anthony Davis. The question
is whether he actually trusts this lineup can be better than other
lineups. The Clippers likely won’t have
Reggie Jackson or Nicolas Batum back due to the price tag for each, who both
played well in the playoff run (especially Jackson). That said, they do still have Paul George,
who has been inconsistent in the playoffs previously but played well after
Leonard was injured before he ran out of gas due to playing so many minutes
(presumably there will be some optimism that his success will continue, but
we’ll see). They also will still have
Marcus Morris, Terance Mann, and Ivica Zubac, all of whom are solid players and
should play an important role for them.
However, they are also stuck with Luke Kennard, who shot well but will
likely be on an untradeable contract.
Rajon Rondo will be there despite barely playing in the playoffs and
Serge Ibaka (who I expect will pick up his player option) was a little
underwhelming during the season before having season ending surgery. The biggest wildcard in my opinion is Patrick
Beverley; many consider him an excellent 3-and-D, but I think in the playoffs
he has shown that the only things he can do well are foul, flop, make dirty
plays, and cry over calls. As for teams
that have cap space, he would likely want to go somewhere with another player
who is a star, which include Dallas (Luka Doncic and depending on the day (but
not recently) Kristaps Porzingis), Miami (Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo), Atlanta
(Trae Young), and New York (Julius Randle).
I don’t think New York is a good enough team to entice him or that he
would want to play off the ball a ton alongside Young in Atlanta. After this year’s playoffs, Butler and
Adebayo might not make the team so enticing.
As for Dallas, I think he would really have to want to play with Luka
since their depth will be worse if they lose Tim Hardaway Jr. In other words, don’t expect him to leave
L.A.
The
Pelicans will look different next year
After struggling this year and missing the playoffs again,
New Orleans remakes the team and gives them a totally different look.
Truth score: 7
Most would interpret this as them making a massive move in
order to be a totally different team.
The issue here is that I’m not sure what moves they could make that
would be either beneficial to the team or would be something they would
consider worthwhile. Steven Adams is unlikely to result in a worthwhile return (not that it would be a good idea), and
Eric Bledsoe is likely untradeable at this point. Further, I doubt they have any interest in trading Brandon Ingram (though it might be worth considering dependent on the return),
and I expect they’ll try to retain Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart in restricted free
agency. What will change is the playing
style when they hire a new coach. It is
no secret that their defense is bad, they shoot a high volume of 2’s, and they get
to the line in a high volume. That said,
they rank 9th in pace (100.1), 10th in field goals
attempted (89.1 per game), and 9th in points (114.6); while that all
sounds great, I think they can speed up given that most of their buckets come
close, so they will need to get as many as possible unless they improve their
defense (don’t count on it). On defense,
they can contribute to this by forcing more turnovers (their opponents committed
13.3 per game, ranking 18th).
This will help them compile fast break opportunities, which can also be
aided by them continuing to thrive on the glass (35.7 DRB, 3rd). I think this number could be boosted further
by reducing the 3’s made against them, as their opponents had 14.5 (2nd
worst) on 38.1 attempts (4th worse), shooting 38.0% from deep (6th
worse); shoring up the 3-point defense will help this. Of course, the simplest solution might be at
the free throw line; they had 26.1 attempts per game (2nd), but shot
just 72.9% (29th); Zion Williamson takes a third of them and only shot
69.8%, so his improvement at the stripe could drastically change the fortunes
of what this team could do. I expect the
team sees similar things that I do there and is inclined to focus on those.
Damian
Lillard will be traded
After Portland struggled early in the playoffs again, Damian
Lillard has enough of the team and requests a trade.
Truth score: 6
This could be a tossup, but I’m leaning towards him being
traded at some point. It wouldn’t
surprise me if Portland waits until during the season to trade him, but I believe
that Lillard is fed up with carrying a team that is often injured to the
playoffs and watching as the other members of the team frequently
disappoint. In particular, C.J. McCollum
shot just 43.9% from the field and 33.3% from 3, Jusuf Nurkic could only
average 28.9 MPG since he averaged 5 fouls a game (and was their only reliable
defender against Nikola Jokic), Carmelo Anthony struggled defensively to the
point it wasn’t likely worth keeping him on for his offense, and Robert
Covington wasn’t the defender necessary in the playoffs. Even Norman Powell, who had an excellent series
offensively, wasn’t particularly good defensively. I think that there are three things that are
required for this trade to occur sooner:
Lillard formally requests a trade (that might be the biggest one), Portland
agreeing to terms with a team on Lillard’s list of preferred teams (they will
do that for him), and them getting the offer they’re hoping for. As for where he might go, that depends on
what they’re looking for; if they’re looking to still compete at a playoff
level, look out for Boston, Philadelphia, and possibly Toronto. If they’re looking at the future, I’d eye New
York, Golden State, and possibility New Orleans, among others.
What do you think about these rumors? Any others you have been watching? Let me know in the comments!
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