NBA Tiers

While I will eventually have specific rankings for the NBA teams, I have grouped the teams into different tiers based on how they might finish.  In these tiers, I have grouped them by championship contenders (2), best in the West (3), playoff locks (7), competitive non-lock teams (10), uncertain (3), delusional teams (1), and not competing (4).  It is entirely possible that teams slide into different categories based on injuries, trades, and performances, but these are how I see them at this time.  I also ranked the teams in each tier by alphabetical order by location.

 

Championship Contenders

These two teams are the most likely to win the Championship at this time and should be highly competitive.

 

Brooklyn Nets

On paper, the Nets seem to be a no brainer to win the championship given their big three of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving.  That said, injuries and recent concerns related to Irving’s vaccination status bring some doubt.  Still, they do have an incredibly deep team, as they still have Joe Harris, Blake Griffin, Bruce Brown, and Nic Claxton, all of whom have immense value, and added Patty Mills, James Johnson, Paul Millsap, LaMarcus Aldridge (who has been cleared to play), and Jevon Carter.  They also have some young players who can likely contribute in Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe.  I think this team is better than the majority of the teams in the NBA due to their obvious offensive explosiveness and, thanks to guys like Brown, Johnson, Carter, and possibly Millsap, might put up a fighting chance at times defensively.  Of course, the thing to watch will be their shooting; in their starting lineup, there are 4 elite shooters in Durant, Harden, Irving, and Harris, as well as some solid shooters off their bench in Patty Mills, Blake Griffin, Jevon Carter, Paul Millsap, and (unless he is really feeling the 2’s) LaMarcus Aldridge.  They will look to outscore teams every night in the regular season before trying harder defensively in the playoffs.

 

Milwaukee Bucks

After winning the title, I think that there is a serious case that the Bucks got better and could be dominant this season.  They retained their core of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, who all played very well in the playoffs; they also still have Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, and Donte DiVincenzo, who was a starter during the season before missing the entire playoffs.  They added George Hill (a good shooting combo guard who has chemistry with many Milwaukee players due to his previous stint with the team), Grayson Allen (a sharpshooter who plays hard on both ends), Rodney Hood (a good shooter and scorer who struggled last season while recovering from an injury), and Semi Ojeleye (a good defender and streaky shooter, though he fell out of the rotation in Boston).  I think just DiVincenzo being healthy helped the team, but their depth is stronger with the additions of Hill and Allen in particular.  On top of that, another year of chemistry with this team should make them stronger on defense, where they often struggled defending the pick and roll.  The Championship wasn’t a fluke, and this team is coming to show that.

 

Best in the West

While there isn’t one standout team in the West, these three have the best chance of getting out of the West.

 

Los Angeles Lakers

Well, the Lakers might have had one of the strangest and most polarizing offseasons, with some declaring them a Championship contender and others claiming they ruined their team (and me still being confused as to what this team will be).  They have 3 players still on their team from last year:  LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Talen Horton-Tucker.  Their biggest move was to swing a massive trade for Russell Westbrook (after almost trading for Buddy Hield), which caused them to have to give up Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (who was one of their best perimeter defenders), Kyle Kuzma (who is a quality player who was starting to figure out a role with the stars), Montrezl Harrell (who was expendable due to his defensive liabilities, though he is a strong finisher in the paint), and a 1^st rounder in a deep draft.  Their team now features Wayne Ellington (a good shooter but below average defender), Kendrick Nunn (a good shooter and scorer who isn’t the best defender and often plays out of the system), De’Andre Jordan (who is a shell of what he once was but might do something defensively), Carmelo Anthony (still a solid scorer off the bench but a below average defender), Malik Monk (a talented shooter and scorer who has shown little effort defensively), Dwight Howard (a backup at this point who thrives in the paint on both ends), Trevor Ariza (who is decent defensively but is fading), Kent Bazemore (a 3-and-D guy coming off an off-year), and Rajon Rondo (a playmaker and competitor who is quickly fading).  In other words, they improved their shooting, but totally gave up their defensive identity outside of Davis, Horton-Tucker, Howard, and possibly Jordan.  That said, they won’t deal with issues of not having a star now that they have 3, but I think that there will be a massive learning curve when they have all of them at the same time.

 

Phoenix Suns

After winning the West last year and winning 2 games in the Finals, the Suns have a serious chance to make it back there if things go right again.  Even if their leader Chris Paul starts to look his age this year, Devin Booker has emerged as a true star (potentially superstar) with his scoring ability and might no longer be one of the most underrated players in the game.  Deandre Ayton has also improved vastly with his shot selection and defense to the point where he could be an All-NBA player as soon as next year.  They also have an excellent supporting cast in Mikal Bridges (one of the better 3-and-D players in the NBA right now), Cam Johnson (a great shooter and athlete who seems to be improving defensively), Jae Crowder (a great defender and good shooter with moments as an elite one), Cameron Payne (an aggressive scorer who has filled in great as a combo guard), the newly acquired Landry Shamet (a great shooter who can also handle the ball some), JaVale McGee (a newly acquired big who is a good defender and rebounder), Elfrid Payton (a newly acquired solid backup playmaker), Frank Kaminsky (a solid backup big who can shoot), and Abdel Nader (a good shooter).  They could be even deeper if second-year big man Jalen Smith makes a jump to what he was in college (a good shooter and solid defender) and if Dario Saric is able to come back from an ACL injury this season.  The thing to be hesitant about is that a lot of guys had career years; while I don’t think many of them are flukes, there could be fear about regression for several.  Still, this is a team that might be the top team in the West.

 

Utah Jazz

I know that Utah lost earlier than a 1 seed is expected to (especially since I had them winning the championship…oops), but they are the perfect team for the West in the regular season.  They still have their two stars in Donovan Mitchell, who is quickly turning into one of the best offensive wings in the league, and Rudy Gobert, the best defender in the league (no disrespect to Ben Simmons).  They also have Mike Conley, another All-Star who can play on and off the ball, Bojan Bogdanovic, a strong shooting stretch-4, Royce O’Neale, one of the better defensive forwards in the league, Jordan Clarkson, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year who is a great scorer, and Joe Ingles, the runner up for Sixth Man of the Year who’s an elite shooter and playmaker.  They also acquired Rudy Gay, who they hope to utilize as a backup wing and occasional small ball center, Hassan Whiteside, who will be used as a backup center, Eric Paschall, a decent scoring big, and Jared Butler, the 40^th pick in the draft who is a good shooter and defender.  I don’t know how their guys after the 7^th best player will be, which could hurt if injuries strike.  The easiest way for them to be in the next tier is if Mitchell improves as a defender, which will take away some of the pressure from Gobert and O’Neale.

 

 

Playoff Locks

These seven teams should be good enough to clinch a playoff spot.

 

Atlanta Hawks

Keep this in mind:  the Hawks had a strong second half of the season into the playoffs, and I think they could be better.  They largely have the same core back, as they kept Trae Young, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, Cam Reddish, Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Solomon Hill, and Onyeka Okongwu, all of whom are good enough to provide solid regular season minutes.  They added Delon Wright (a quality combo guard who can lead an offense when Young is out and play off him), Gorgui Dieng (who was signed as a backup big man while Okongwu is out but can play well defensively in the paint and shoot some), and Jalen Johnson (the 20^th pick who is a big playmaker, though he could see stints in the G-League).  While I think Gallinari could take a step back, coach Nate McMillan, who has been signed long-term now, figured out how to optimize seemingly every player, especially Young, so I could see them all playing much better on both ends.  What’s scarier:  they have enough depth that can be used if a superstar player becomes available to make an enticing offer.  What’s scariest:  if they don’t give up this depth, Young could be an All-NBA player, Capela could be an All-Defensive player, and Hunter and Bogdanovic had moments where they looked like they could be fringe All-Stars.  They’re not going anywhere.

 

Boston Celtics

After a disappointing 7^th place finish, coach Brad Stevens took over for Danny Ainge as the Team President and almost instantly changed the mindset of the team by hiring Ime Udoka as coach, who has specialized at defense and has already preached increased ball movements, two things that were at least inconsistent under Stevens.  Stevens then proceeded to expand on the team’s depth, something that was weak last year.  They still have a pair of superstars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, an elite defender in Marcus Smart, a few young players ready to play a bigger role in Robert Williams, Payton Pritchard, and Aaron Nesmith, and some younger guys who might be something in Romeo Langford and Grant Williams.  They added Al Horford (a strong defender who will be a great fit), Dennis Schroder (a talented combo guard coming off an off-year), Josh Richardson (a skilled defender coming off an off-year), Juancho Hernangomez (a big forward who can shoot), Enes Kanter (a beloved player who is also a strong rebounder and skilled scorer), and Bruno Fernando (who has potential as a big).  They are so much deeper than last season and if everything goes right for them (which it won’t but beside the point), I wouldn’t bat an eye if they finish as the top team in the East in the regular season.

 

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have to make it in this tier because Luka Doncic has shown that he is talented enough to bring a team into the playoffs on his own.  Most people haven’t focused on their depth, but they have a lot of players that are at least quality players:  Tim Hardaway Jr. is a potent scorer who finished 4^th in the Sixth Man of the Year voting, Jalen Brunson is a talented 2-way combo guard who finished 5^th in Sixth Man of the Year voting, Dwight Powell is immensely underrated with his ability to finish, screen, and defend, Maxi Kleber has shown some ability as a screener and shooter, Dorian Finney-Smith is a talented defender who can shoot some, Reggie Bullock is a skilled 3-and-D player, Willie Cauley-Stein is decent in the paint, Sterling Brown is a good shooter, and Trey Burke can provide some scoring.  There is also the chance that Josh Green and Tyrrell Terry make a leap in their second seasons, especially considering how good they are as shooters.  There are two things that will dictate how far this team can go.  One is if Kristaps Porzingis can be a star player again and not be the defensive liability that he was last season (it’s possible considering this offseason is a bit longer).  The bigger question in my opinion (though fewer seem to focus on that) is if Jason Kidd will be the right coach for them.  Kidd has never led a team to more than 44 wins, and the first season after he left the Bucks result in them winning 60 games.  Unless he is a changed coach, I don’t see them breaking into the next tier.

 

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have the reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic, another rising offensive star in Michael Porter Jr., and an excellent 2-way player in Aaron Gordon as their core to start the year.  They also have a deep team, as they have a talented scorer in Will Barton, a good 2-way forward/center in JaMychal Green, a talented scoring backup point guard in Monte Morris, the newly reinvented dream small ball center in Jeff Green, an aggressive guard in Facundo Campazzo, a good scorer in Austin Rivers, an aggressive yet smart off-ball guard in PJ Dozier, and a good scorer in Nah’Shon Hyland, who was the 26^th pick in the draft.  While they have a few players that they will rely on defensively, many of their other players are either underrated or improving defensively.  That said, the biggest question for this team health; Barton has often dealt with injuries the last few years and star guard Jamal Murray will likely be out for much of the season.  Murray’s absence is what prevents them from being in a higher tier; if he comes back and is close to what he was prior to the injury, this team will be in the top tier.

 

Miami Heat

There is a lot of excitement surrounding the Heat this offseason after signing Kyle Lowry, though I am not fully on board with them being a contender yet.  They already had Jimmy Butler, a strong defender who also could take on the role of an offensive superstar at times, and Bam Adebayo, a young star defender and good passing big man who could score but wasn’t always aggressive with his own shots, and added Lowry, who is an amazing second or third option who plays hard, can create for others, and is a good shooter.  The issue is that I don’t think any of them are consistently an aggressive number 1 option, which is where Tyler Herro comes in; if Herro, who has shown scoring abilities, can improve his consistency and make a jump in his scoring efficiency, the Heat will likely be in the top tier (I’m not holding my breath on him becoming a top option this year).  They have several other players who can contribute, including Duncan Robinson (an explosive sharpshooter), P.J. Tucker (a tough physical defender who can shoot some but doesn’t have a big impact on offense), and Markieff Morris (another tough and aggressive defender who is also a good shooter).  Another big x-factor for them is what Victor Oladipo will be; while I don’t expect he will regain the reputation of being one of the best two-way wings in the league, if he could be another solid option for them, that would be massive.  This team should be a good team, though I think they will have some offensive limitations that will prevent their ceiling.

 

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers are in a bit of a limbo right now considering the status of Ben Simmons as he holds out.  Normally a team losing an All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year finalist is in horrible shape, but I expect the 76ers will still contend, largely due to the presence of Joel Embiid.  Embiid has emerged as a superstar on both ends of the floor and is one of the most dominant players in the paint; without Simmons, he might have even more room to operate in the paint and midrange.  I could also see Tobias Harris, who has been largely relegated to third fiddle, be more of a force in the midrange and paint, where he seems to be most comfortable, due to Simmons not being there all the time.  Outside of that, the depth that they have behind them includes Seth Curry (a strong shooter who can be their second-best player when on a streak), Danny Green (an aging 3-and-D player who can still play a role for the team), Tyrese Maxey (a good point guard who is better shooter and off the ball player than Simmons), Matisse Thybulle (a good defender who is at best a streaky shooter), Shake Milton (a good scorer who has improved his ability and is getting more comfortable with his presence and role on the court), Andre Drummond (a center who might be best suited as a backup at this point though he is an excellent rebounder and still is a bit nimble at times), Georges Niang (a prototypical stretch-4), and Jaden Springer (the 28^th pick who is a good athlete and solid shooter though not willing shooter and he isn’t that knowledgeable off the ball yet).  This team should make the playoffs, but they either need Simmons or some sort of All-Star replacement for Simmons in order to contend; keep an eye out to see if Harris emerges as an All-Star or if Maxey makes a massive jump.

 

Portland Trail Blazers

The Trail Blazers appeared to be in trouble once Damian Lillard seemed to imply that he was interested in being traded, but now he seems to be at least willing to give this season a try.  This is important because Lillard is essential for the team’s success; if he doesn’t finish the year with the team, you can largely rule out any playoff success.  Their next two best players are CJ McCollum (a great scorer who has come up short in the playoffs, but in the regular season gives the Blazers an elite scoring guard combo) and Nurkic (a skilled center on both ends who has been hampered by foul troubles and, the bigger issue, injuries).  That said, they have more depth than they seemed to have in the last couple season, as they have Norman Powell (a quality wing who fit with the team immediately last season), Robert Covington (a strong defender who had an off year offensively, though he is a good shooter), Larry Nance Jr. (a versatile defender who is also explosive in the paint), Anfernee Simons (a good scoring guard who I expect will make a jump this year), Cody Zeller (a solid backup center who is a nice replacement for when Nurkic is inevitably injured), Tony Snell (a solid 3-and-D guy), Ben McLemore (a good shooter), and Nassir Little (a young athletic wing who I think will take a jump this year in part since his shooting and defensive IQ are improving).  While a controversial hire due to a previous sexual assault trial, several players seem to be raving about new head coach Chauncy Billups.  Ultimately, a lot will need to go right for them to compete for the Finals and convince Lillard that his talent isn’t being wasted there.

 

 

Competing for Playoffs

These ten teams aren’t locks to make the playoffs, but they should be competitive.

 

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets might not be a lock to make the playoffs since the other teams in the East improved, but they should be a competitive team.  They have three players who could potentially be stars this season, with the most likely being Gordon Hayward, a great all-around player whose biggest weakness at this point is health.  Two others who are possible are LaMelo Ball, a great playmaker and solid scorer who looked good as a rookie but might not be ready for the jump to stardom, and Terry Rozier, a high-volume scorer who has improved in efficiency, though he might be better suited in a role where he isn’t the star.  They have several other players who should play a major role, including P.J. Washington (a versatile defender and shooter), Miles Bridges (an explosive athlete who is also developing as a shooter and defender), Kelly Oubre (an explosive athlete coming off a rough year with Golden State who should provide some help on both ends), Mason Plumlee (a center who doesn’t require a ton of touches and can do everything well except shoot), James Bouknight (the 11^th pick in the draft who is an incredible athlete and scorer), and Ish Smith (a solid veteran backup point guard).  They also have several other young players who could contribute in different ways, including Kai Jones (the 19^th pick in the draft), Vernon Carey, JT Thor (the 37^th pick in the draft), Wesley Iwundu, Jalen McDaniels, Cody Martin, and Nick Richards.  While not a lock for the playoffs, don’t be surprised if they make it; they’re legit.

 

Chicago Bulls

I think I’m a little higher on the Bulls than many analysts and likely lower than many fans, but I’m still not certain about this team.  They have their big 3 now that they still have Zach LaVine (a freak athlete who has substantially improved his offensive efficiency, though he still isn’t that good defensively), Nikola Vucevic (one of the more complete offensive big men in the league, though he is at best an average defender, probably below average though), and DeMar DeRozan (a great scorer who has developed into a great lead playmaker, though he hasn’t been that good of a defender); you may notice a trend among the defense there.  Some of their other players they have include Lonzo Ball (a good defender and fast break playmaker who has been a streaky shooter, though he has improved substantially), Alex Caruso (a good defender who is a streaky but overall solid shooter), Patrick Williams (a young player who looked like a good 3-and-D player as a rookie, though he has his rookie mistakes and will miss time due to an injury), Derrick Jones (a freak athlete and good defender who is coming off a rough season), Coby White (a score first guard who can pass some and is a good shooter), Troy Brown (a streaky shooter but has some defensive potential), Tony Bradley (a solid big man who looks to be a good backup), Matt Thomas (an elite shooter), and Ayo Dosunmu (the 38^th pick who is a combo guard who could be good though will need reps off the ball).  There will be a lot relying on a few defensive players in Ball, Caruso, Williams (if healthy), Jones, and (possibly) Brown.  That said, their rotation of fast-paced offense from Ball and LaVine and slow-paced offense from DeRozan and Vucevic could be something.

 

Golden State Warriors

There are many people that are optimistic about Golden State, but a lot has to go right for them to be in a higher tier.  They still have MVP finalist Steph Curry and Defensive Player of the Year finalist in Draymond Green, but the questions about the team begin after that.  The biggest key to this team is the health of Klay Thompson; after missing 2 full seasons due to injuries, when will he return, and how will he look?  If he isn’t the athlete he was prior to the injuries, this team won’t make a jump.  We also have to see if Andrew Wiggins can make another jump, but even still he improved a lot on defense and shot selection last season.  They have some valuable younger depth players who seem ready to contribute in Juan Toscano-Anderson (who looks like a great wing defender), Jordan Poole (who has emerged as a great scorer off the bench), and Kevon Looney (a solid big man who plays well with the stars.  They have a few older players who are wildcards in Andre Iguodala (a solid defender who is nearing the end, though many seem to be in denial), Otto Porter (theoretically a good 3-and-D player if he can stay healthy and in shape), and Nemanja Bjelica (a strong shooting big who seems to be regressing at his other skills).  They also have 3 very young lottery picks in James Wiseman (a skilled big man who is still incredibly raw and has a lot to learn), Jonathan Kuminga (the 7^th pick in the draft who is a freak athlete but is unlikely to contribute this year with how raw he is), and Moses Moody (the 14^th pick who is a skilled player at both ends and might be able to contribute some) who are unlikely to get a ton of minutes at this point.  If everything goes right, they are fighting near the end; still, if nothing else, Curry brought them to this level last year.

 

Indiana Pacers

While Indiana missed the playoffs last year, a healthier team and new coach could mean that they will be a playoff team.  They still have All-Star Domantas Sabonis (the best passing big man not named Nikola Jokic), Myles Turner (a 2-time blocks leader who can also shoot some), and Malcolm Brogdon (a great shooter who is also a good playmaker and defender) will likely be at their core to start.  They also have several quality role players in Justin Holiday (a solid shooter and defender), T.J. McConnell (a nice backup point guard), Torrey Craig (a great defender and solid shooter), Chris Duarte (the 13^th pick in the draft and an NBA ready shooter), and Jeremy Lamb (a very good shooter, though it sounds like they’re looking to trade him).  They also have Goga Bitadze, Isaiah Jackson (the 22^nd pick in the draft), and Edmond Sumner who might provide something.  Injuries may continue to be the name of the game again though; T.J. Warren is still dealing with foot injuries and Caris LeVert is dealing with a back stress fracture.  Another dynamic to watch is how new coach Rick Carlisle meshes with the team; previous coach Nate Bjorkgren reportedly had issues with many players, and Carlisle hasn’t been known to have a mild temper when dealing with players.

 

Los Angeles Clippers

The reason the Clippers cannot be in a higher tier is due to doubts regarding the health and status of Kawhi Leonard given his most recent injury.  Still, Paul George is a good enough player to bring a team into the playoffs given his scoring ability and defense if he is healthy; the issue is that he hasn’t been healthy in the last 2 seasons, only playing in 102 out of 144 games).  They also have Eric Bledsoe (a combo guard who is an excellent defender), Marcus Morris (a hard-nosed defender who can shoot well), Nicolas Batum (a combo forward who can do a bit of everything), Reggie Jackson (a combo guard who can great shots for himself), Luke Kennard (a sharpshooting wing), Terance Mann (a good defender who can also shoot), Ivaca Zubac (a quality old-school center on offense), and Justice Winslow (a player coming off a tough couple seasons due to injury but can be a playmaking wing).  They also drafted Keon Johnson 21^st (who is an explosive scorer) and Jason Preston 23^rd (who is a good playmaker and shot creator), both of whom could contribute if needed.  While they have underrated depth, this team will not contend until Leonard returns from injury and might not make the playoffs if George continues being injury prone.

 

Memphis Grizzlies

After ending a slight playoff drought, the Grizzlies had an interesting and slightly confusing offseason, but still have a good team that should be competitive.  Ja Morant is still their star, but the team would benefit from him either improving at defense or shooting (or both).  After that, they have a lot of good players, but will need somebody to step up to be the number 2 option if they want to improve on last year’s success.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is the most likely candidate to be that as a strong defensive and shooting power forward/center, but he hasn’t been healthy much or a good rebounder, which is something to watch.  Outside of that, they have Dillon Brooks (while an inconsistent shooter, he has developed into an excellent defender), Steven Adams (a hard-nosed physical big man who has been a good screener), Brandon Clarke (a solid stretch-4 coming off a bad shooting year), De’Anthony Melton (an excellent defensive combo guard who is improving offensively as well), Kyle Anderson (a skilled and versatile point forward who can also play off the ball), Desmond Bane (a young 3-and-D player who is strong alongside Morant), Xavier Tillman (a solid defensive forward who showed offensive glimpses at times), and Tyus Jones (a quality playmaker who seems to be the perfect backup point guard).  They also have some other young players who could be something in Ziaire Williams (the 10^th pick in the draft who is an incredibly athletic and aggressive forward), Jarrett Culver (a competent two-way player in college who has struggled with his shot in the NBA), Sam Merrill (a strong shooter in limited minutes), Daniel Oturu (a center with potential to be a switchable stretch-5), and Santi Aldama (the 30^th pick in the draft who is a versatile and crafty big with some playmaking and shooting potential).  Morant and their depth is enough to not rule them out, but he needs someone else to step up to be another star if they want to raise their ceiling.

 

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans had a confusing offseason that resulted in them likely not improving their lineup despite creating cap space to chase Kyle Lowry (not that he was going there).  They still have Zion Williamson, who is coming off a dominant season on offense, Brandon Ingram, who has become an excellent offensive option in New Orleans, as well as a young supporting cast in Josh Hart (a decent shooter but good rebounding wing), Nikeil Alexander-Walker (an aggressive scoring combo guard), Kira Lewis (who projects to be a score first guard with some shooting abilities).  They also acquired Jonas Valanciunas, who is a good rebounder and finisher, but the fit with Williamson will likely be clunky at times due to his insistence on post-ups and paint finishes (he will also demand more touches than who he replaced in Steven Adams), Devonte’ Graham, who’s a good shooter but is a clear downgrade from Lonzo Ball, Tomas Satoransky, a solid backup guard, and Garrett Temple, who’s a solid off-ball player on both ends.  They drafted Trey Murphy 17^th in the draft, who’s a good shooter and might be ready soon, and Herbert Jones 35^th, a solid wing who can play both ends.  The most important change might be hiring Willie Green as head coach, who has been known to be an excellent communicator, contribute to winning cultures, and get the most out of younger players and veterans.  That said, the only way this team makes the playoffs is if they improve on defense; in particular, their stars in Williamson and Ingram need to buy in and make a stronger effort at that end.

 

New York Knicks

After a surprise playoff birth last season, there is doubt that the Knicks will replicate this success, but there should be some optimism.  They still have Julius Randle (who has emerged as a star point forward), RJ Barrett (who took a massive jump last year and might take another), Derrick Rose (who finished 3^rd in Sixth Man of the Year), Nerlens Noel (who had a career year and has emerged as an excellent defender), Mitchell Robinson (another strong defender who is a bit raw and has health issue), Alec Burks (a great shooter and scorer), Immanuel Quickley (a young guard who has shot well), and Obi Toppin (a great finisher who has also shown glimpses of a shooting touch).  They added shot creating ability with Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, as well as some shooting with the 25^th pick in Quentin Grimes and the 36^th pick in Miles McBride.  There are two reasons that I don’t feel comfortable saying they are a playoff lock.  First off, the East got better this offseason and several teams likely surpassed the Knicks.  Further, a lot went right for this team with multiple players having career years.  If these weren’t total flukes, this team could move up a tier.

 

Toronto Raptors

I admittedly am not sure what to expect from the Raptors this year now that Kyle Lowry is gone, but I think there is enough talent to still compete.  Pascal Siakam was an All-Star two seasons ago in a breakout year, but struggled this past season at points, especially at shooting and defensive consistency; while he is likely going to miss some time due to an injury, he could still return to this level.  They also have Fred VanVleet who has played well on both ends of the floor and has approached 20 PPG the last couple years, so his playing style makes the most sense for replacing Lowry.  They have several players who could be contributors this year, including Goran Dragic (a good offensive point guard who can shoot well but has dealt with injuries and defensive struggles), OG Anunoby (a good all-around off-ball player whose jump was hampered by injuries and Covid protocols), Chris Boucher (a strong defensive center who is also a good shooter, as well as a long freak athlete), Gary Trent Jr. (a talented shooter who is improving defensively), Scottie Barnes (the 4^th pick in the draft who is a strong defender and playmaker, as well as beloved teammate), Precious Achiuwa (a hard-nosed defender who also screens and rebounds aggressively), Malachi Flynn (a good shooter and defender who reminds me of a young VanVleet and should get more playing time), Khem Birch (a solid center who can score in the paint), and Sviatoslav Mykkhailiuk (a good shooter).  One thing to watch is that Boucher is recovering from an injury and, like Siakam, will miss at least the first few weeks of the season.  Still, this team needs at least one player (maybe two or three) to make a leap in order for them to be a playoff lock; be on the lookout for Anunoby, Boucher, Trent, VanVleet, and Flynn as candidates.

 

Washington Wizards

The Wizards went from a team without much depth to an incredibly deep team, though they still might not miss the playoff.  Unless he requests a trade (which he hasn’t indicated he would yet), Bradley Beal is still there and is an elite offensive player who has lifted past Wizards teams’ floors much higher than it should have been.  As a result of free agency and the Russell Westbrook trade, they have a lot more depth than they previously had; their team now consists of Spencer Dinwiddie (a strong offensive guard coming off an injury), Kyle Kuzma (a good offensive player who has improved substantially defensively), Davis Bertans (an elite sharpshooter), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (one of the most underrated 3-and-D players in the NBA), Rui Hachimura (a solid all-around power forward who is a solid contributing player), Aaron Holiday (a strong shooting combo guard coming off a tough season), Thomas Bryant (a good offensive center at shooting and finishing who isn’t great defensively and is still injured), Corey Kispert (the 15^th pick in the draft who is a great shooter and knowledgeable player), Deni Avdija (a player who looks raw and still was a decent finisher and passer), Raul Neto (a solid backup combo guard who is a good shooter), Montrezl Harrell (a strong offensive big man who is a liability defensively), Daniel Gafford (a big man who has shown potential as a defender and finisher), and Isaiah Todd (the 31^st pick in the draft who is a good shooter but needs to learn how to use his athleticism).  New coach Wes Unseld Jr. should help improve their defense, but I’m not sure there is another player guaranteed to be good enough at scoring to help Beal (unless a player like Dinwiddie, Kuzma, or even Hachimura makes a massive leap).

 

 

Not Sure

While it’s possible these three teams will compete, it’s also possible they easily miss the Play-In tournament.  I’m not quite sure which direction they will fall.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves

I could see the Timberwolves improving this year, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to struggle.  They still have a core of Karl-Anthony Towns (a player who is still a well-rounded offensive center with elite potential if he stays healthy), Anthony Edwards (a player who had a roller coaster of a rookie year but looks really good after Chris Finch was hired as head coach), and D’Angelo Russell (I’ve lost hope in Russell with this team, but he is a good scorer so maybe he actually does it while trying to win).  They also have a supporting cast that now includes Patrick Beverley (a good defensive guard who might finally bring the toughness needed to compete that Minnesota has been lacking since trading Jimmy Butler), Malik Beasley (a great offensive player who doesn’t seem to care about defense), Taurean Prince (a solid wing player who can contribute on both ends at times), Naz Reid (a young center who has shown glimpses of being a good player at both ends), Josh Okogie (a strong defensive wing player who needs to take another step offensively), Jaden McDaniels (a young player who showed a lot of talent as a rookie and good be a talented forward), and Jarred Vanderbilt (an athletic forward who has quickly become a solid defender).  The issue with this team last season was defense, and I could still see this being a problem, especially considering the only defenders I know I can consistently trust on this team are Beverly, Okogie, Reid, and Vanderbilt.  Towns needs to improve on defense, especially in the pick and roll, where someone sets a screen, and he often seems to stand there bewildered by what this apparently new concept to him is.  He has expressed a desire to win and seemed to be excited when the Timberwolves played better later in the season, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he bought in.  Still, in order for them to compete, I think Towns needs to improve defensively, Edwards needs to be more consistent, Russell needs to at least buy into some playing style that doesn’t hurt the team, Beasley needs to try some on defense (he doesn’t even need to be an average defender), and one or two other players make a jump; while that seems like a lot, the craziest part is that I think most of those could happen.

 

Sacramento Kings

I’m torn on the Kings; I feel like they could wind up in a Play-In game, but I also could see them finishing near the bottom.  They still have my favorite prospect prior to the 2017 draft in De’Aaron Fox, who has been an inconsistent shooter and defender, but has emerged as a potential All-Star due to his finishing and passing ability (he’s also so fast).  My issue with this team is they’ve surrounded him with a lot of slow players, which won’t unlock his potential; while they signed some slower players, they have some faster players at least.  Other potential contributors include Harrison Barnes (an underrated scorer and rebounder who is a beloved teammate and an improved shooter), Tyrese Haliburton (a great shooter who has been a strong all-around combo guard), Buddy Hield (an elite shooter who isn’t that good of a defender but could fit on any team), Davion Mitchell (the 9^th pick in the draft who is a good defender and was a good shooter in college, though there might be an adjustment period), Richaun Holmes (a good athlete who is a great finisher and solid defender), Tristan Thompson (a good finishing center, though he is a bit of a black hole and had an inconsistent year in Boston), Marvin Bagley III (a highly touted big with offensive potential in a make-or-break season, since he has been held back by injuries, lack of defense, and inconsistencies), Terence Davis (a solid 3-and-D player who thrived offensively in Sacramento but his defense suffered), and Alex Len (a solid backup center who is a good finisher).  They have several other younger players who could make a jump and help them out as well.  Ultimately, I don’t think this team will make the playoffs, though coach Luke Walton will hope they do since he will likely be coaching for his life as an NBA coach.

 

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are at an interesting point because they appear to be shifting towards a rebuild, as they let DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills walk in free agency.  Who will be the leading scorer this year with DeRozan gone?  They still have a young core of Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, Derrick White, and Devin Vassell, all of whom could fill that role (I feel most confident that Murray, Johnson, or Walker would be the star).  They have some other young supporting cast members in the strong defender Jakob Poeltl, the raw forward Luka Samanic who could make a leap on offense, a freak athlete and shooter in the 12^th pick Joshua Primo, and the oft injured but super versatile and talented big Zach Collins.  They added Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, and Al-Farouq Aminu as veteran help, who are all talented in their roles though none projects to be a lead scorer on most teams.  I think this team will miss the playoffs, but it feels like this could be the year that Murray and Johnson step up.

 

 

Delusional Competitiveness

One team thinks their competing but has given little to no indication that they actually are.

 

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are in a tier of their own because I don’t know what they’re doing at this point.  Their offseason started by effectively turning Taurean Prince, who is a solid player but didn’t seem to be a long-term option, into Ricky Rubio, who might be able to help train their guards into better playmakers (I’m just kidding, that’s never going to happen; he’s there so they have a backup point guard who does something other than shoot every time).  They then drafted Evan Mobley with the 3^rd pick, which suggested that they were likely to rebuild since I consider him the rawest out of the top-5 picks, though he has superstar potential.  Then they made an interesting combination of moves.  They resigned Jarrett Allen to a large deal but then signed Lauri Markkanen, a player who has largely been just there to shoot and rebound some as a big.  While he is younger, there are two issues:  I don’t see him being able to play alongside Mobley and Allen, and they gave up Larry Nance Jr. to get him, who is a very good player.  Add to the fact that they still have Kevin Love with all these other bigger guys and this move makes less sense.  On top of that, they haven’t given much of an indication that Collin Sexton is in their long-term plans, but there’s been no rumblings for trades.  To add to all this, it’s been rumored that management is expecting this team to play better, but the moves they made will likely make them worse.  There’s good news here though:  with another year, we could see Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro take another step forward.  That said, they act like they should win, but they’re closer to the bottom tier than the next tier up.

 

 

Not Competing

These four teams are going to be more focused on rebuilding and development than competing for the playoffs this year.

 

Detroit Pistons

This year will be a year of rebuilding and development for the Pistons, but they have an interesting combination of solid veterans who could be fun to watch and promising young players.  They drafted Cade Cunningham first overall, who is a big playmaker who can shoot, which will at least be fun to watch him grow; he will join a young group that includes Killian Hayes, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, Josh Jackson, Saben Lee, Frank Jackson and Isaiah Livers, who was drafted 42^nd.  Jerami Grant can take the offensive load off Cunningham, and Kelly Olynyk, Trey Lyles, Cory Joseph, and Rodney McGruder should be able to contribute some, but none will turn them into a competitive team.  This will be a team that isn’t competing, but Grant is a great player, Olynyk can be fun, and Cunningham, Hayes, Bey, Stewart, and Diallo are all promising.

 

Houston Rockets

While Houston should be horrible, there is a lot to look forward to about their future.  They already have several younger players who look like they could be potential long-term options in Christian Wood, Kevin Porter Jr., Kenyon Martin Jr., and Jae’Sean Tate.  Add to the fact that they ended the draft with Jalen Green drafted 2^nd, who I think has the highest potential out of the top-5, Alperen Sengun drafted 16^th, who is popular in analytics community and I think could be Domantas Sabonis (though his floor could be Enes Kanter), Usman Garuba drafted 23^rd, who is one of the strongest defenders in this draft class, and Josh Christopher drafted 24^th, who has upside as a scorer.  They also have several veterans in Eric Gordon, Daniel Theis, Danuel House, David Nwaba, and D.J. Augustin, all of whom could provide some help provide some experience…or trade value later on.  They also have John Wall who they are actively shopping (a.k.a., they are preparing to buy out since nobody wants his contract).   This year won’t be watching for wins, but will be watching for the future.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder

We are now at season 2 in the Sam Presti rebuilding process, and I don’t think anybody expected it to look quite like this so far.  They already have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emerging as a star player while just turning 23, which is strange since he is better than the expected timeline yet the perfect age for it.  They have a strange assortment of young talent in Luguentz Dort (a strong defender whose shooting and offensive abilities are improving rapidly), Darius Bazley (a strong finisher and good defender who has some consistency and decision-making issues to iron out), Aleksej Pokusevski (a raw and skinny big man who can seemingly do anything and everything in spurts, though has a long way to go), Josh Giddey (the 6^th pick who is a big point guard who might be the best playmaker in the draft, though his shooting and defense aren’t great), Tre Mann (the 18^th pick who is a sharpshooting guard and aggressive scorer), Theo Maledon (a decent shooter and playmaker who still has a long way to go, though has potential), Ty Jerome (a sharpshooter who has been closer to average defensively than I expected), and Kenrich Williams (who had a breakout season as a shooter last year).  They have a pair of veterans in Derrick Favors (I expect he’ll be traded at some point) and Mike Muscala who will be great to help all the young guys.  In short, don’t expect them to contend, but don’t expect them to finish last either, as this team showed last year that they don’t want to lose.

 

Orlando Magic

After a trade deadline that turned into an inevitable mass exodus, the Magic are truly in rebuild mode.  The team went from middle of the pack to tanking when they traded away Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, and Evan Fournier at the deadline last year.  Also gone is Steve Clifford and in comes Jamahl Mosley, a coach who has received praise for his defensive schemes and player development, including being involved with the early development of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic.  They have a young promising team that includes Jalen Suggs (the 5^th pick in the draft who is a strong player on both ends but also is willing to do what it takes to make the team succeed, more so than most young stars), Jonathan Isaac (a player who looked like a future Defensive Player of the Year prior to an injury), Cole Anthony (an aggressive and confident scorer who has moments of glory but still needs to improve playing alongside good teammates), Franz Wagner (a quality all-around wing who should make teammates better but might have an adjustment period with his shooting and defense), R.J. Hampton (a great athlete who is needs to improve shooting, but might make a leap defensively), Wendell Carter Jr. (a solid 2-way center who seems to have plateaued a bit in his development after just 3 years), Markelle Fultz (a solid finisher and playmaker who is an inconsistent shooter and is coming back from an ACL injury), Mo Bamba (a freak athlete with shooting potential who needs to improve substantially), Chuma Okeke (a quality 2-way forward), and Mo Wagner (a workhouse with some shooting potential).  They also have a few older players who could be traded at the deadline, including Terrence Ross (a high-volume scorer and decent shooter who can provide a punch off the bench), Gary Harris (a good shooter with some shooting potential), and Robin Lopez (a tough center who is good at boxing out).  This will be a rough season for them, but they have some intriguing developmental projects.

 

 

Are there any teams you think I’m incorrect about?  What teams are you excited to see in the playoffs?  Let me know in the comments!