Rookie Extension Eligible Players

Each offseason, 1^st round picks drafted 3 years prior are eligible for a rookie extension on their rookie deal.  This year, there are 23 players eligible from the 2018 Draft, and the deadline for them to sign an extension is October 18^th.  In this post, I discuss the odds each player signs an extension (and note the ones that have signed one so far) in order by where they were drafted in 2018.

 

Deandre Ayton, PHO, 1^st pick, C

I expect Ayton will be extended.  The reason he hasn’t been so far is because Phoenix doesn’t want to give him the max despite an excellent playoffs, but I think they will come to an agreement so they don’t have to pay him more next offseason.  He has emerged as a strong player in the paint and a good defender, which I think will continue to be valuable for the team.  The big question is whether the amount makes this impossible.

 

Marvin Bagley, SAC, 2^nd pick, PF/C

Bagley won’t be extended.  He has struggled to remain healthy and has been inconsistent when he has played, so there is little to no motivation to extend him.  They have always tried to trade him as well, so I don’t see him being part of their future.  I don’t expect he will have that good of a year this year either; Bagley is at his best at center, but Richaun Holmes has proven to be a much better center.  With coach Luke Walton likely coaching for his life, he will choose the lineups that brings the most wins, which likely won’t include Bagley.

 

Luka Doncic, DAL, 3^rd pick, PG/SG, Extended

Doncic signed a 5-year, $207M extension, which is a supermax rookie extension.  The fifth year is a player option and there is a 15% trade kicker (like most supermax deals).  This was expected considering he has emerged as an All-NBA player in multiple seasons and is often a preseason favorite to win the award.

 

Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM, 4^th pick, PF

I don’t expect Jackson to be resigned.  The biggest reason Jackson hasn’t been resigned is due to health; he has played in just 126 games in his first 3 season, and only 11 last season.  His skill set as a big who is a good shooter and defender, and his high ceiling makes him worthy of a solid amount (maybe even $20M a year), but his lack of rebounding and health will make this extension a bit less likely.  The one thing to consider is if they look into a contract with partial guarantees, though I think there will be a difference in price that is too large.

 

Trae Young, ATL, 5^th, PG, Extended

Young signed a 5-year, $172.5M extension (though it will increase to $207M if he is on an All-NBA team this year).  The fifth year is a player option and there is a 15% trade kicker.  This was expected considering Atlanta has built their team around him and he has turned into an offensive superstar while looking impressive in the playoffs as well.

 

Mo Bamba, ORL, 6^th pick, C

Bamba won’t be extended.  While I was a big fan of him entering the draft (he was my second favorite player in this draft behind Doncic; oops), he has been maddingly inconsistent.  He has shown the glimpses of what was expected of him as a highly touted prospect, but he has also shown mistakes that you wouldn’t expect from a 3^rd-year player.  While he was stuck behind Nikola Vucevic for a few years in the depth chart, I expect he will now be stuck behind Wendell Carter, who is better than him at this point.  Still, there’s a chance that it was just former head coach Steve Clifford who wasn’t high on him rather than the front office or the new coaching staff….

 

Wendell Carter, ORL (Drafted by CHI), 7^th pick, C/PF, Extended

While the deal isn’t official and most details aren’t released yet, Carter has agreed to an extension for 4 years, $50M.  Considering Markelle Fultz signed an extension for the same amount, I’m not too surprised by this.  If nothing else, Carter is a solid player who is worth keeping, especially since Orlando is rebuilding and has the money to spend.

 

Collin Sexton, CLE, 8^th pick, PG/SG

I don’t expect Sexton will be extended, but it is possible.  Ultimately, as the Cavs continue to struggle, they have to take a hard look in the mirror and decide what kind of team they are and what kind of player Sexton will ever be.  Considering he averaged more than 20 PPG last year, I think that he will want a lot of money and there’s at least a case to be made that he should be given a sizeable chunk of change.  The issue is whether they want to treat Sexton as a superstar or as a supercharged Jamal Crawford type player; I am starting to think he is likely better in that role than in expecting him to be more.  The problem with not wanting to pay him is that one team that either doesn’t have a guard or is rebuilding might be willing to give him in the range of $25M a year (or more) next offseason.

 

Kevin Knox, NYK, 9^th pick, SF/PF

Knox won’t be extended.  He fell out of the rotation last year, so there is no reason to give him another contract.  It wouldn’t surprise me if they try to waive or trade him if he continues to not receive minutes, but his Knicks days are numbered.

 

Mikal Bridges, PHO, 10^th, SF/SG

I’m not sure if Bridges will be extended.  He has emerged as a talented 3-and-D player who is the 4^th best player on the Suns, but Phoenix will have a massive payroll quickly considering Chris Paul’s new contract, Devin Booker’s contract, and a likely extension for Ayton.  There’s a case to be made that they might not want to extend him due to that, but he could likely make at least $20M more in restricted free agency.  If they want to keep him, expect they will try to extend him.

 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (originally with LAC), 11^th pick, PG/SG, Extended

Gilgeous-Alexander signed a 5-year, $172M extension (though it will increase to $207M if he is on an All-NBA team this year).  The fifth year is a player option and there is a 15% trade kicker.  This extension is not surprising considering he has emerged as an elite scorer.  Further, while Oklahoma City is in the early stages of a rebuild, Gilgeous-Alexander just turned 23, so he will fit their timeline.

 

Miles Bridges, CHO, 12^th pick, SF

I think Bridges will receive a contract extension.  While he has been a bench player for them, he is an incredibly athletic player who can also shoot and defend.  It is sounding like both sides are looking to extend as well.  Even off the bench, he is a guy who can contribute at least 25 MPG and be productive throughout; his presence is always felt on both ends.  While the money might add up for them long-term, they would have more difficulty signing him next offseason (when he will likely be more expensive), so it would be in their best interest to offer an extension now and worry about ducking under the luxury tax later.

 

Michael Porter., DEN, 14^th pick, SF/PF, Extended

Porter signed a 5-year, $172.5M extension (though will be $207M if he is named to an All-NBA team this year).  The fifth year of the contract is partially guaranteed ($12M).  I’m not surprised they offered this extension considering he has developed into an offensive star and will be difficult to replace via other means.  I think the partial guarantee was a good decision since he has dealt with injury issues.

 

Troy Brown., CHI (drafted by WAS), 15^th pick, SF/SG

I don’t expect Brown will receive a contract extension.  At his best, he has been an ordinary shooter and solid finisher, but at his worst he averages less than 5 PPG in just under 15 MPG.  I think they would rather have a minimum contract player replace him eventually if the Bulls are competitive and someone is needed to fill this role.  If he somehow has a breakout year, they might reconsider, though the Bulls seem to already be in decent shape at the wing.

 

Donte DiVincenzo, MIL, 17^th pick, SG

I think DiVincenzo will receive a contract extension.  Despite missing the entire playoffs, he was the starting shooting guard for them and has ability to shoot, defend, drive, and play off the ball.  The biggest reason that I think he will get a contract is because the Bucks just won a title, want to still contend, and have no financial flexibility for the next several years, meaning that replacement options are very slim.  If they can retain DiVincenzo at a fairly team-friendly deal (I could see him taking $10-$15M), they should bite (and likely will) bite at the opportunity.

 

Lonnie Walker, SAS, 18^th pick, SG

I don’t expect Walker to receive a contract extension.  While he has shown potential as a scorer, he is still a bit raw, doesn’t seem to have a ton of Gregg Popovich’s trust at times, and is competing with several other guards/wings who are skilled and talented.  Still, it’s worth watching what happens with him since they don’t have a ton of expensive contracts on their roster now, so they might decide that taking a risk on a young player is worth it; that said, they might opt to wait until they pay Keldon Johnson next season instead.

 

Kevin Huerter, ATL, 19^th pick, SG

While possible, I don’t think Huerter will receive a contract extension.  While he is a valuable player for them, I don’t see them viewing paying him as a necessity for a few reasons.  The biggest reason is due to the large number of wings that they have on the team, including a player with some similar skills in Bojan Bogdanovic.  Additionally, they just paid Trae Young and John Collins larger contracts this offseason, and they were not as urgent to offer Collins a contract last offseason when there were similar questions about his necessity.  I think there are some that view his value as at least $18M, which the Hawks might not be willing to bite on yet.

 

Josh Okogie, MIN, 20^th pick, SG/SF

Okogie will not receive a contract extension.  While he has been a good defender for them, he has been at best a non-factor on offense and at worse a total liability, given that he isn’t a good shooter or passer and isn’t a great finisher.  As such, it doesn’t make sense for them to offer him a new contract at this time, especially since I doubt there will be a massive clamoring for him next offseason unless he adds more of an offensive game.

 

Grayson Allen, MIL (drafted by UTA), 21^st pick, SG

I’m not sure that Allen will receive a contract extension, but I would probably lean towards not.  He had a career-year last season where he has emerged as a reliable defender and excellent shooter, which should make him a natural fit in Milwaukee.  That said, they just traded to get him from Memphis, so they don’t know with certainty that he will play there.  That said, the Bucks have little to no financial flexibility for the next few years and Allen will be more expensive to renew if they let him go into restricted free agency.

 

Aaron Holiday, WAS (drafted by IND), 23^rd, PG/SG

I don’t expect Holiday to receive a contract extension.  While he is a talented player on and off the ball and good shooter, he is coming off a difficult season in Indiana, so it doesn’t make sense to extend him yet, especially since he hasn’t spent a day in a Wizards uniform for a regular season game.  While it is possible they resign him due to his talent, this reminds me of when the Pelicans opted not to resign Brandon Ingram upon trading for him. 

 

Anfernee Simons, POR, 24^th pick, SG

I don’t expect Simons will receive a contract extension.  While he has emerged as an excellent shooter, he has been fairly one-dimensional and hasn’t frequently been able to help out in other aspects of the game.  While he can provide some value to the team off the bench, I think they would prefer to give him a shorter contract at a lesser value than the one they would likely offer as an extension.  He can provide value to the team, but don’t expect them to be willing to dish out a lot of money, especially if he continues to be a defensive liability.

 

Landry Shamet, PHO (drafted by PHI), 26^th pick, SG

While possible, I don’t expect Shamet to receive a contract extension.  He is a talented shooter and scorer, but he wasn’t a major contributor for the Clippers or Nets in the playoffs, and the Suns just traded for him.  On top of that, they might not want to pay him long-term if they deem his role of shooting as easily replaceable by a minimum contract player, buy-out player, or draft pick.  That said, while Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges will command massive contract extensions, Shamet will likely not; in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they could sign him for $10-12M, which isn’t much considering his shooting touch.  That said, I wouldn’t put money on an extension.

 

Robert Williams, BOS, 27^th pick, C, Extended

Williams signed a 4-year, $48M extension.  There are also $6M in incentives, bringing the maximum value to $54M.  I was surprised because I didn’t expect them to come to an agreement on money, especially with Williams being so injury prone, but I love the signing considering how skilled he is.  The ultimate goal is to get a superstar, so he could be traded if needed, but is a valuable long-term player otherwise.

 

Are there any players out of these that you expect to be extended?  Any you’re surprised have?  Let me know in the comments?