NBA All-Star Predictions

With the All-Star starters being announced on the 27th, I have made my predictions for who will be named to the All-Star Teams.  As a note, each Conference has 12 players, 5 starters (2 backcourt, 3 frontcourt) and 7 reserves (2 backcourt, 3 frontcourt, and 2 wildcard sports).  The starters are selected by a combination of fan voting, media and players, the reserves are selected by the coaches, and any replacement players are selected by the commissioner.  I also have a bonus of who I would choose for the lineups.

All stats are per basketball-reference.com prior to the games played on 1/26.  A * after a player's position indicates that they are currently injured and might miss the All-Star Game; if any player is currently injured and might miss the game, I have also predicted a replacement player.

 

East

Starters

1.       DeMar DeRozan, CHI, G

2.       Trae Young, ATL, G

3.       Kevin Durant, BRK, F*

4.       Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL, F

5.       Joel Embiid, PHI, C

 

DeRozan, Durant, Antetokounmpo, and Embiid seem to be locks, though the final guard spot could be up in the air.  DeRozan is averaging 26.3 PPG (6th), 5.0 RPG, and 4.8 APG in 34.8 MPG (17th) with 51.1 eFG%, 5.2 WS (14th), and 3.4 OBPM (19th) in 42 games as the leader of a surprisingly good Bulls team.  Durant is putting up 29.3 PPG (1st), 7.4 RPG, 5.8 APG, 37.2 3P%, 56.6 eFG%, 5.8 WS (8th), and 7.3 BPM (6th) in 36.5 MPG (6th) in 36 games as the seemingly lone constant contributor for a competitive Nets team.  That said, he is currently injured with a sprained MCL and could miss the game.  Antetokounmpo has 28.6 PPG (4th), 11.3 RPG (6th), 6.0 APG, 1.5 BPG (10th), 1.0 SPG, 56.0 eFG%, 7.2 WS (3rd), and 10.4 BPM (2nd) in 32.7 MPG in 39 G, playing at an MVP level on both ends for the Bucks.  Embiid might be having his best season with 29.0 PPG (3rd), 10.8 RPG (10th), 4.3 APG, 38.0 3P%, 53.2 eFG%, 1.4 BPG (12th), 1.0 SPG, 6.5 WS (6th), and 9.3 BPM (3rd) in 32.8 MPG across 36 G, being what is really keeping the 76ers alive.  Since Young was leading the last fan vote and I expect he will win the media vote, I predict he will be named the second starter.  He is putting up 28.0 PPG (5th), 9.3 APG (3rd), 4.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 38.0 3P%, 52.6 eFG%, 5.0 WS (19th), and 6.7 OBPM (6th) in 34.8 MPG (20th) in 42 G as the only bright spot of a disappointing Hawks team.

 

Reserves

1.       Zach LaVine, CHI, G

2.       James Harden, BRK, G

3.       Jimmy Butler, MIA, F

4.       Jayson Tatum, BOS, F

5.       Jarrett Allen, CLE, C

6.       Jrue Holiday, MIL, G

7.       Fred VanVleet, TOR, G

Replacements:

1.       Domantas Sabonis, IND, F

 

I feel good about most of these players, although it wouldn’t surprise me if there are some others that make it instead.  LaVine has been one of the stars of a Bulls team that has exceeded most expectations, putting up 24.9 PPG (12th), 5.2 APG, 4.8 RPG, 40.8 3P%, 56.7 eFG%, 3.6 WS, and 4.5 OBPM (12th) in 34.0 MPG in 39 G.  While Harden hasn’t necessarily been putting up Harden-like numbers and hasn’t played like himself, he is still putting up good numbers for the Nets, with 23.0 PPG (18th), 10.1 APG (2nd), 8.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 33.7 3P%, 49.3 eFG%, 5.1 WS (17th), and 4.7 BPM (17th) in 37.0 MPG (2nd) through 42 G.  Butler has missed time due to injuries but has likely played well enough this season for a great Heat team to offset the missed time, putting up 21.4 PPG, 6.1 APG, 6.0 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 49.2 eFG%, 5.2 WS (16th), and 7.8 BPM (5th) during 33.5 MPG across 29 G.  While Tatum has been inconsistent this season and I don’t think from watching him a lot that he should be an All-Star, he is still averaging 26.0 PPG (8th), 8.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, 33.1 3P%, 49.3 eFG%, 4.3 WS, and 3.0 BPM in 36.6 MPG (5th) in 45 G; being one of the league’s top scorers and him being a notable name will make him a likely coach’s pick.  While not a lock, Allen has been the best player on a competitive Cavs team, possibly the surprise success story of the year; he is putting up 16.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG (8th), 1.9 APG, 1.4 BPG (13th), 69.6 eFG% (2nd), 6.6 WS (5th), and 4.4 BPM (19th) in 32.7 MPG across 40 G.  Another who isn’t a lock, I expect Holiday will still be selected after his success for the reigning Champion Bucks on both ends, putting up 18.2 PPG, 6.4 APG (17th), 4.6 RPG, 1.5 SPG (14th), 38.6 3P%, 55.4 eFG%, 3.7 WS, and 3.2 BPM during 32.6 MPG in 36 G.  VanVleet has been one of the best players on a surprisingly good Raptors team who have been surging lately (though part of that stems from a homestand where teams didn’t want to send their best players to Canada), putting up 21.7 PPG, 7.0 APG (13th), 4.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG (6th), 39.3 3P%, 53.3 eFG%, 5.2 WS (15th), and 5.0 BPM (14th) in 38.2 MPG (1st) in 41 G.  It’s possible that when Commissioner Adam Silver is looking for a replacement for Durant that he doesn’t bother with positions (if that happens, I expect LaMelo Ball or Darius Garland will be chosen); that said, if he does then Sabonis seems like the next logical choice.  While the Pacers have disappointed, he has put up 19.0 PPG, 11.9 RPG (5th), 4.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 60.9 eFG% (8th), 6.3 WS (7th), and 4.7 BPM (16th) in 34.9 MPG (15th) during 44 G.


Others to watch:

1.       LaMelo Ball, CHO, G

2.       Darius Garland, CLE, G

3.       Bam Adebayo, MIA, C

4.       Jaylen Brown, BOS, G

5.       Bradley Beal, WAS, G

6.       Khris Middleton, MIL, F

7.       Evan Mobley, CLE, F

8.       Kyle Lowry, MIA, G

9.       Tyler Herro, MIA, G

10.   Miles Bridges, CHO, F

11.   Pascal Siakam, TOR, F

12.   Jerami Grant, DET, F

 

 

West

Starters

1.       Stephen Curry, GSW, G

2.       Ja Morant, MEM, G

3.       LeBron James, LAL, F

4.       Nikola Jokic, DEN, C

5.       Draymond Green, GSW, F*

 

Curry, James, and Jokic seem to be locks, but I’m not sure about the other positions.  While Curry has cooled off considerably lately and has been putting up underwhelming numbers for him, he is still putting up 25.8 PPG (9th), 6.2 APG (19th), 5.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG (18th), 37.3 3P%, 53.5 eFG%, 5.9 WS (9th), and 6.4 BPM (7th) in 34.6 MPG in 44 G, while also being the star of the Warriors, one of the best teams in the league.  James is playing his best basketball on offense in years and keeping a middling Lakers team afloat, putting up 29.1 PPG (2nd), 7.7 RPG, 6.3 APG (18th), 1.6 SPG (7th), 1.1 BPG, 35.2 3P%, 58.8 eFG% (14th), 5.8 WS (10th), and 8.6 BPM (4th) in 36.6 MPG across 36 G.  Jokic has kept up his MVP level type numbers and literally turning an atrocious Nuggets team into a competitive one, with 26.2 PPG (7th), 13.9 RPG (2nd), 7.6 APG (9th), 1.4 SPG (20th), 36.4 3P%, 61.4 eFG% (6th), 8.5 WS (1st), and 14.3 BPM (1st) in 33.2 MPG across 41 G.  While it is possible Chris Paul is a starter due to the player’s vote, I expect Morant will claim the second spot in the fan and media vote, which will push him over the edge.  He has been the leader of a surprisingly excellent Grizzlies team, putting up 25.3 PPG (11th), 6.9 APG (14th), 6.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 35.0 3P%, 52.7 eFG%, 4.2 WS, and 6.0 OBPM (7th) in 32.9 MPG through 35 G.  I expect the last spot will be between Green, Rudy Gobert, and Paul George; since George has missed a substantial period of time with injury and Gobert seems to be less popular than Green among the players and fans, Green it is.  While his scoring numbers might be underwhelming for an All-Star, he is an essential part of the Warriors on both ends and seriously deserves some MVP consideration with how he makes the team run; he currently has 7.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.4 APG (10th), 1.4 SPG, 1.2 BPG (18th), 56.7 eFG%, 3.2 WS, and 4.7 DBPM (1st) in 29.9 MPG in 34 G.  He is dealing with an injury and could miss the game.

 

Reserves

1.       Chris Paul, PHO, G

2.       Donovan Mitchell, UTA, G

3.       Rudy Gobert, UTA, C

4.       Anthony Davis, LAL, C

5.       Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN, C

6.       Luka Doncic, DAL, G

7.       Devin Booker, PHO, G

Replacements:

1.       Andrew Wiggins, GSW, F


Injuries and the usual suspects struggling have totally changed the landscape of what will happen, and I’m not quite sure what to expect here.  Paul has been considered the leader of the Suns, who have the best record in the NBA, and has been putting up 14.4 PPG, 10.2 APG (1st), 4.4 RPG, 53.2 eFG%, 6.7 WS (4th), and 5.2 BPM (12th) across 32.6 MPG in 46 G.  Mitchell is having another fine season for a quality Jazz team, with 25.5 PPG (10th), 5.2 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG (9th), 33.9 3P%, 52.8 eFG%, 4.3 WS, and 4.1 OBPM (17th) in 33.5 MPG in 40 G.  Gobert is having his best year offensively so far while playing excellent defense for the Jazz, putting up 16.0 PPG, 15.1 RPG (1st), 1.2 APG, 2.3 BPG (2nd), 70.7 eFG% (1st), 7.9 WS (2nd), and 5.4 BPM (10th) during 32.5 MPG in 42 G.  While the Lakers have been underwhelming and Davis hasn’t been playing his best basketball (as well as having missed time due to an injury), I still think he will be named an All-Star, as he has 22.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2.1 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 52.9 eFG%, 3.1 WS, and 2.7 BPM in 35 MPG across 28 G.  While it’s possible Paul George is chosen here, he’s injured so I bet they opt for Towns.  Towns has been the best player for a solid Timberwolves team, with 24.1 PPG (14th), 9.4 RPG (16th), 3.6 APG, 1.3 BPG (16th), 1.1 SPG, 41.0 3P% (19th), 58.3 eFG% (17th), 5.4 WS (12th), and 4.9 BPM (15th) in 34.6 MPG across 40 G.  While it’s no secret Doncic has not played up to the level he normally does, that doesn’t mean that he will be omitted from the All-Star; while Dallas has been solid, he has put up 25.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 8.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 49.3 eFG%, 2.6 WS, and 6.1 BPM (8th) in 34.9 MPG across 33 G.  While Paul is considered the leader of the Suns, Booker is still their top scorer, putting up 24.5 PPG (13th), 5.4 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 37.8 3P%, 50.3 eFG%, 3.5 WS, and 2.8 OBPM in 33.3 MPG in 39 G.  Since I doubt Commissioner Adam Silver will replace an injured player with another injured player (sorry Paul George), I think it will be either Deandre Ayton or Wiggins; I’m giving a slight edge to Wiggins here.  He has put up 18.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.0 APG, 40.4 3P%, 55.8 eFG%, 3.9 WS, and 1.2 BPM in 31.4 MPG across 44 G.


Others to watch:

1.       Paul George, LAC, F*

2.       Deandre Ayton, PHO, C

3.       Damian Lillard, POR, G*

4.       Kristaps Porzingis, DAL, F

5.       Desmond Bane, MEM, F

6.       Brandon Ingram, NOP, F

7.       Dejounte Murray, SAS, G

8.       Anthony Edwards, MIN, G

9.       Mike Conley, UTA, G

10.   Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC, G

11.    Mikal Bridges, PHO, F

 

 

Bonus:  My choices

If I were making the teams, these are who I would choose.

East:

Starters:

1.       DeMar DeRozan, CHI, G

2.       Trae Young, ATL, G

3.       Kevin Durant, BRK, F*

4.       Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL, F

5.       Joel Embiid, PHI, C

Reserves:

1.       Jrue Holiday, MIL, G

2.       Zach LaVine, CHI, G

3.       Jimmy Butler, MIA, F

4.       Jarrett Allen, CLE, C

5.       Domantas Sabonis, IND, F

6.       Fred VanVleet, TOR, G

7.       James Harden, BRK, G

Replacement Players

1.       Jaylen Brown, BOS, G/F

Next Five:

1.       LaMelo Ball, CHO, G

2.       Darius Garland, CLE, G

3.       Pascal Siakam, TOR, F

4.       Khris Middleton, MIL, F

5.       Miles Bridges, CHO, F

 

 

West:

Starters:

1.       Stephen Curry, GSW, G

2.       Ja Morant, MEM, G

3.       LeBron James, LAL, F

4.       Nikola Jokic, DEN, C

5.       Rudy Gobert, UTA, C

Reserves:

1.       Devin Booker, PHO, G

2.       Donovan Mitchell, UTA, G

3.       Draymond Green, GSW, F*

4.       Paul George, LAC, F*

5.       Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN, C

6.       Chris Paul, PHO, G

7.       Luka Doncic, DAL, G

Replacement Players

1.       Deandre Ayton, PHO, C

2.       Anthony Davis, LAL, F/C

Next 5:

1.       Dejounte Murray, SAS, G

2.       Damian Lillard, POR, G*

3.       Brandon Ingram, NOP, F

4.       Desmond Bane, MEM, F

5.       Andrew Wiggins, GSW, F

 

Lastly, a quick shoutout to Bam Adebayo (MIA) and Dillon Brooks (MEM) who would have received serious consideration but didn’t play enough games in my opinion.

 

Who do you think will be named an All-Star?  Anyone you're hoping for?  Let me know in the comments!

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