The (Missed) Shot Heard Around the World + Finals Predictions

With 16 seconds remaining in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat were losing by 2 while Jimmy Butler had the ball and was on a fastbreak opportunity with only Al Horford ahead of him.  Suddenly, Butler did something nobody expected:  he attempted an open 3-pointer, which missed and allowed the Celtics to hold onto victory despite almost blowing a 13-point lead.  Almost immediately upon taking the shot, the world of basketball couldn’t stop talking about it, with responses ranging from criticism to respect to outright confusion.  Since it was something I was not expecting to witness, I wanted to take a dive into the surprise behind it and whether it was a good shot.  As a note, all statistics are per Basketball Reference unless otherwise stated.

Before looking at this shot, I would like to emphasize that I do not blame Butler at all for this loss.  While some have said this shot cost them the game, I would argue his presence was the main reason they were even in the game, let alone the series.  Despite clearly hampered by a knee injury, he had 35 points on 13-24 shooting from the field (54.2%) while playing all 48 minutes.  He also contributed 9 rebounds and played solid defense just one game after scoring 47.  The issue for the Heat was that he had so little help, as Bam Adebayo was the only other player to shoot better than 40% from the field (12-21, 57.1% for 25 points), though there were times where he was passive, especially in the 4^th quarter.  Beyond them, you an injured Kyle Lowry who was clearly a shell of himself (4-12 from the field, 1-6 from 3, 15 points, 3 assists), an injured Tyler Herro who struggled through just under 7 minutes and contributed almost nothing, a bad shooting night from Max Strus (3-10 from the field, 2-7 from 3), a quiet night from Gabe Vincent (1-4 and a -10), a night that resulted in an ORtg of 0 (which is pretty rare for a player) from PJ Tucker (0-3, including missing 2 open 3’s, -16), and an atrocious shooting night from Victor Oladipo, which included a few of the worst 3-point attempts I have ever seen (4-12, 1-7 from 3, though he somehow was a +16).  The Heat went 6-30 (20%) from 3 and 16-24 (66.7%) from the line, which Lowry and Adebayo combining for 7-12 (58.3%).  There is also something to be said about the surprising removal of a Max Strus 3-pointer after review (something I was surprised was overturned).  I believe that this series would have been at most 5 games without Butler, probably a sweep.  With that said, I would still like to explore this shot.

I think the appropriate way to start with this is that Butler is an incredibly smart player (something that I don’t think he gets the appropriate attention for) who knows his strengths better than most players I have ever seen.  Something he realizes is that 3-point shooting is a major weakness of his, as he shot just 23.3% from deep in the regular season this year and 24.0% since joining Miami; as such, just 2.0 of his 14.5 attempts per game were from deep, just 14.0% of his attempts.  That said, he is awesome at finishing at the rim, as he shot 70.1% within 3 feet of the rim.  He is also great at getting to the line and finishing there, as he had 8.0 attempts per game (.549 FTr) and shot 87.0% from the line.  Even if he opted to pull up a bit further out while inside the paint, he shot 41.5% from 3-10 feet from the rim and 45.7% from 10-16 feet (I am omitting the 16-3P range in this argument since he rarely shot those in the regular season).  In terms of points per attempt (when not accounting for free throws), this would mean that would mean his expected outcome for each range would be 1.40 for 0-3, 0.83 for 3-10, 0.914 for 10-16, and 0.70 from beyond the arc.  When isolated based on regular season stats, it would suggest that the 3 was not a good shot, but there is more that can help.

I think Butler’s postseason statistics would be better to look at here considering how much better he played (his numbers improved from 21.4 PPG, 23.3 3P%, and 52.0 2P% in the regular season to 27.4 PPG, 33.8 3P%, and 55.0 2P%).  Overall, his percentages playoff percentages were 71.6% from 0-3, 46.3% from 3-10, 50.0% from 10-16 (though there were more attempts from the other areas mentioned, so this number might be a tad fluky), and as mentioned a second ago, 33.8% from 3.  These would suggest points per attempt values of 1.43 from 0-3, 0.93 from 3-10, 1.00 from 10-16, and 1.01 from 3, which makes this attempt a bit more forgivable of a look.  That said, it is worth noting that these numbers were definitely aided by playing a Hawks team that was atrocious defensively, as he shot 43.8% from 3 in that series and 54.3% from the field, while he dropped to 29.2% from 3 and 47.7% from the field against the Celtics (though he did still shoot 51.9% from 2).  He also shot 88.9% from the line during this series, which suggests that trying for a foul would be a wise decision, even if his FTr dropped to .415 during the playoffs.

I think it is worth considering how Horford has been defensively since that can help evaluate this a bit more.  During the regular season, opponents shot 60.9% from 0-5 feet, 36.1% from 5-10 feet, 41.0% from 10-15 feet, and 35.2% on above the break 3’s (around where Butler attempted the shot from) against Al Horford, per nba.com.  In the playoffs, these numbers were 62.0% within 5 feet, 36.1% from 5-10 feet, 45.0% from 10-15 feet, and 31.6% on above the break 3’s.  While the numbers within 0-5 feet were higher in the playoffs, it is worth noting that he was often guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo during the prior round, so take that increase with a grain of salt.  In short, he was an awesome defender in the playoffs, which likely makes that decision a bit more difficult.  Another thing worth considering is whether the refs would have called a foul at that point, as there have been many occasions where fewer fouls were called historically in the playoffs.  That said, numbers would still suggest an attempt in the paint might be more efficient than one further out against Horford.

Ultimately, it must be stated how I imagine exhaustion played a role in that decision.  2 days prior, he played around 46 minutes and then played 48 minutes this game while being a major offensive focus in both games.  While Butler had an incredible first half from the field (8-11, including a perfect 5-5 second quarter), he faded as the game went on, going 5-13 from the field in the second half and just 2-6 in the fourth quarter.  He also had 10 free throw attempts in the first half but just 1 in the second (the team only had 2 attempts total in the second half while the Celtics had 16, but that still is a big drop off for Butler).  It is also worth mentioning that despite a perfect second quarter from the field, he shot 7-10 from the line, which is much lower than his normal percentage.  The reason I bring this up in particular is that it is often said that the jumper is the first thing to go when tired, which is a statement I believe (without any statistical research or evidence) due to the decreased height of jumps in that case.  Considering the fact that Butler likely thought he was the lone reliable offensive contributor for Miami at that point (which was likely the case despite the late-game struggles), it wouldn’t surprise me if he thought that he couldn’t do it for 5 more minutes.  Maybe I’m overthinking that part of it a bit, but I wouldn’t blame him if that was his reasoning.

While you might be wondering what I might do at that point in the game, I cannot say I’d take any shot because I would likely have already collapsed from exhaustion and pain by that point so that might not be a good approach for looking at it.  However, from a statistical standpoint it is tough to argue that he made the most optimal shot.  That said, I think that when considering the exhaustion and human element to the game that the shot wasn’t quite as bad as the math suggests.  Selfishly, I would have loved to have seen what happened if Butler drove right at Horford, but maybe we shouldn’t have all been as surprised and confused as the shot as we all were.

 

Bonus:  2022 NBA Finals Prediction

After some of the strangest playoff series I have ever seen (lead by an abysmal one where my predicted winner the Phoenix Suns lost to the Mavericks in 7 games, all blowouts), we have one of the most intriguing Finals matchups possible in the Golden State Warriors versus the Boston Celtics.  Since these teams are surprisingly evenly matched, I have broken my analysis into 10 categories and will determine my predicted winner from these.  As a note, these categories are not evenly weighted, so an edge in even 7 of them does not mean they will be my predicted winner (that part is ironically the least mathematical of my entire analysis).

 

Defense

These teams are surprisingly evenly matched on paper, as both had a defensive rating of 106.9 during the playoffs.  That said, both teams have looked impressive in the playoffs on offense, which could change things up a bit, though Boston has been incredible in the playoffs defensively as well.  Both teams force a good number of turnovers (Golden State had a 13.0 TOV% while Boston had one of 12.5%).  The two teams were comparable in opponent eFG% (50.2% for Boston, 50.9% for Golden State) and 3P% (33.9% for both teams).  Golden State was better at DRB% (78.7% vs. 77.3%), but Boston fouled much less often (.183 FT/FGA for Boston, .201 for Golden State).  Ultimately, I think that Boston has an advantage for one major reason:  while there are players you can target and feel fairly confident about beating, including Jordan Poole and Stephen Curry, the best bet for Boston is targeting Derrick White which isn’t the best decision (this point might not hold as much weight if Payton Pritchard and Daniel Theis get more playing time than I expect).  Edge:  Celtics

 

Offense

This is interesting because the Celtic’s offense looks better when you just focus on regular season offensive rating (114.4 vs. 112.5), but Golden State’s offense has looked more fluid in the postseason with players healthy.  Even during the regular season Golden State held an edge in eFG% (55.2% vs. 54.2%), which will be interesting to watch considering Boston had an elite defense.  Something else worth noting is that the Warriors play at a slightly faster pace than the Celtics, which is the best way to beat them.  I think three major things to watch are free throws (Boston gets to the line a little more and shot 81.6% from the line), offensive rebounding (while Boston’s 24.0 ORB% was 8^th in the NBA and Golden State’s 22.8% was 18^th, the health of Robert Williams could sway these numbers), and turnovers (Golden State turned the ball over a ton, with a 13.5 TOV%, but Boston’s was around average with a value of 12.4%).  While I think there will be games where each team is clicking from offense, I trust the Warriors a bit more on offense since I expect the Celtics will have at least one game where they revert to old bad habits of focusing on isolation.  Edge:  Warriors

 

Stars

With all due respect to Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Jordan Poole, and Al Horford (specifically for Stugotz), I consider there to be 5 stars in this series:  Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green from Golden State, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown from Boston.  While from a historical standpoint thus far it is impossible to argue Curry’s status as the best player of the 5 in all-time rankings, I consider Tatum a better player due to his defensive versatility and Curry’s moments of appearing mortal shooting this year compared to usual.  I would still consider Curry to be the second best.  An unpopular opinion that nobody talks about is that while Thompson has been shooting well these playoffs, he has not been that good of a defender in either the regular season or playoffs, so I consider both Brown and Green better than him.  While Green is the best defender between the two teams and has value offensively due to his playmaking ability, his unwillingness to shoot could draw Ben Simmons comparisons if he passes up on an easy look during the series, so I would rather Brown’s scoring aggressiveness and defensive versatility, even if it means watching him make horrible plays in dribbling or not passing with the ball.  If the Celtics have 2 of the 3 best players in the series, that will be huge for them.  Edge:  Celtics

 

Depth

This one is a quick and easy one because I will consider who I feel confident giving at least 10 minutes in a playoff game to for each team (if healthy).  For Boston, the answer would be Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Robert Williams, Grant Williams, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and possibly Aaron Nesmith in the right matchup (though Ime Udoka would also likely trust Daniel Theis in that spot).  For Golden State, the answer would be Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Otto Porter, Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodala, Jonathan Kuminga, maybe Juan Toscano-Anderson, and possibly Nemanja Bjelica (though that might be a bit of a stretch).  The answer is pretty obvious there.  Edge:  Warriors

 

End Game Lineup

While it is possible we see Jordan Poole or Derrick White at the end of games, I expect the Warriors will end with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Otto Porter, and Draymond Green and the Celtics will counter with Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Grant Williams, and Al Horford.  The Warriors will likely have a better offense in this one, but I think the Celtic’s defense could limit Wiggins or Porter enough.  In a 7 game series, I question that anyone on this team can consistently stop Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, so I feel like it is difficult to bet against Boston.  Edge:  Celtics

 

Shooting

In the regular season, the Warriors shot 36.4% from 3 and the Celtics shot 35.6% from deep.  In the playoffs, the Warriors had 4 players who received consistent playing time and shot at least 35% from deep:  Klay Thompson (39.9%), Jordan Poole (39.3%), Stephen Curry (38.0%), and Andrew Wiggins (35.3%), though it is also worth noting that Otto Porter shot 37.0% during the regular season but has struggled in the postseason.  As for the Celtics, they have Al Horford (43.2%), Grant Williams (40.5%), Jaylen Brown (38.6%), Jayson Tatum (37.5%), and Payton Pritchard (36.2%).  That said, Pritchard likely won’t play a ton and Horford seems a bit fluky considering he shot 33.6% in the regular season and 60.0% in the first round.  The playoff numbers might say Celtics, but I don’t think all of their players will shoot as well this series against this matchup.  Edge:  Warriors

 

Coaching

I think most people would say that Steve Kerr is a better coach than Ime Udoka, but I don’t think it’s as much of an edge as people think.  Udoka has helped the Celtics go from an average team between last year and the start of this year to one of the best teams in the league thanks in large part to his brilliance as a defensive coach, but their offense has improved substantially as well from last year.  I think he was essential to the development of the playmaking of Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart, as well as the defense of Robert Williams and two-way play of Grant Williams.  That said, Kerr is one of the smartest coaches on both ends of the court, as the Warriors have historically been able to do brilliant things to flummox the best of defenses while shutting down some of the best offensive players and units.  He is able to get the most out of players I thought were finished or ones I never expected to make an impact.  While Udoka deserves his due, I think Kerr’s experience and brilliance cannot be overstated.  Edge:  Warriors

 

Health

While injuries can happen at any given time, I will focus on the injury report prior to Game 1, especially considering that Klay Thompson and Steph Curry don’t appear injured from my outside opinion.  Out of players who might play, Golden State has Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II, and Otto Porter as questionable while Boston has Marcus Smart and Robert Williams as questionable.  Boston has the two best players included on the injury report and considering their depth is thin as it is, they’re in more trouble than Golden State is in that regard.  Edge:  Warriors

 

Matchups

This one is a bit subjective considering teams could switch and some players are better guarding certain players than others.  That said, there are certain matchups I think we will see a bunch of.  I think there will be a fun Al Horford-Draymond Green matchup that could be surprisingly competitive and a Stephen Curry-Marcus Smart matchup that could depend on how physical the refs allow both Smart to play.  I think the Jaylen Brown-Klay Thompson matchup could be fun for the offensive sides (it might be a bit underwhelming defensively at points), but the x-factor will definitely be if Andrew Wiggins can do anything against Jayson Tatum on either end.  As for the bench, there will be the question of what Jordan Poole can do offensively against the Celtics (he should be able to score at least some) and how much of a liability he can be defensively, as well as what version of Derrick White we get in terms of aggression.  The nerdiest matchup in my opinion would be an Otto Porter-Grant Williams matchup, yet I am so excited for what this will look like.  Ultimately, I think the ones listed will be pretty close overall, but I think Boston will be more effective handling any sort of mismatches or switches than Golden State, giving them a pretty clear edge here.  Edge:  Celtics

 

Other Question Marks

I won’t give a winner in this category, but there are several other things I am watching.  The biggest thing I am curious about is how Jayson Tatum will hold up.  I have long been worried about how his body would hold up when guarding difficult offensive players and being the focal point of an offense and he looks totally exhausted in their losses; now that the Celtics have played 18 playoff games, could he experience something like this in consecutive games?  I also wonder how Klay Thompson will hold up; while his offense has been pretty good overall in the playoffs, he did miss more than 2 full seasons due to injury, causing me to wonder about his durability.  I’m kind of excited to see how deep the Warriors go in their bench, since I think (if healthy) the Warriors might have up to 12 players who could warrant playing time.  A major x-factor is Marcus Smart’s jumper, considering he is super confident in it but also super streaky.  The one I’m most curious about:  considering all the wings Golden State has, is it worth giving Aaron Nesmith a shot?  He is incredibly athletic and aggressive, which might make him useful at points, though he is streaky offensively and is a bit unpolished, often picking up avoidable fouls on defense.  If I had to guess, the answer is that we won’t see a ton of him, but I can remain hopeful.  A major one to watch is how games off will impact each team.  While Golden State’s older players would benefit from the games with an additional day off in between, could Boston’s stars as well given how many playoffs games they have played?  Lastly, how will the roads to reach the Finals pan out for each team?  The Celtics’ path was much more grueling than that of the Warriors, but will that make an impact?

 

 

Overall, I think on paper these teams are extremely close and it will be an exciting series.  Unless there is a major injury or some other unforeseen result, a series shorter than 6 games can be chalked up as a disappointment.  Even after breaking down each field by category, it could go either way given the information I have now.  I do believe Golden State will win Game 1, but I’m unsure after that.  Ultimately, I am copping out and choosing the Warriors for one reason:  if the Warriors win, my prediction is right, and if the Celtics win, the team I cheer for is correct; with this cop out and lazy analysis as a pick, I cannot technically lose.  Prediction:  Warriors in 7 games

 

Who do you think will win the Championship?  Anything you’re excited about the series?  What did you think of Jimmy Butler’s jumper?  Let me know in the comments!