NBA Finals: How They Got Here Through Transactions + Predictions

We have reached the NBA Finals, where we will get the 1 seed Boston Celtics from the East taking on the 5 seed Dallas Mavericks from the West!  I expect this will be a fun matchup that I am looking forward to.  While it is traditional to make predictions regarding the series when nobody actually fully knows what they’re talking about in most situations, I think it’s pretty clear who I will have winning.  As such, I wanted to do a post that I did last year and am excited for, which is looking at the transactions that led each Finals team to their current roster.  Both teams have had fascinating journeys creating their respective teams, both of which were about 20 years in the making.  I didn’t focus a ton on game results and didn’t look at ownership in this post, though those are important in the big picture.

 

Boston

• 5/9/2003:  The Celtics hired Danny Ainge as the Director of Basketball Operations.  While he was controversial at points during his tenure (especially at the start), he made multiple key moves that defined the last several years, including the trade and draft selections that resulted in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
• 6/25/2013:  The Celtics traded Doc Rivers to the Clippers in exchange for a 2015 first round pick.  While the player was a late first round pick and didn’t end up resulting in a key player being selected, it showcased Ainge’s ability to get draft picks and recognize when it was time to rebuild.
• 7/3/2013:  The Celtics hired Brad Stevens as their head coach.  He was considered a brilliant and tactful basketball mind who would also be good with younger players.  While he never won a championship as a coach, he was a great coach during his time, especially proving effective at getting a lot out of players who were not stars.
• 7/12/2013:  The Celtics traded Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, and D.J. White to the Nets.  This was a sign that Boston was ready to rebuild, and that Ainge wasn’t afraid to make an unpopular move, especially since Garnett and Pierce were Celtics legends by that point.  While they got back several players in that deal, Boston’s main prize was the 3 unprotected first round picks and pick swap, which resulted in them drafting Jaylen Brown in 2016 and Jayson Tatum in 2017, as well as using the final pick in the Kyrie Irving trade.
• 6/26/2014:  During the 2014 Draft, the Celtics used the 6^th pick to select Marcus Smart (along with others).  While he isn’t currently on the team, Smart played a massive role in shaping their identity during his tenure with the organization.
• 2/19/2015:  The Celtics traded for Isaiah Thomas.  They gave up a couple players and a 1^st round pick, though it was Cleveland’s 2016 pick, which was a late one.  I consider the IT trade to be the catalyst of the end of their rebuild.
• 6/23/2016:  In a busy draft, the Celtics selected Jaylen Brown with the 3^rd pick.  This pick was criticized by many at the time due to how raw Brown was, and this draft was not considered to be a good class at the time.  Now, Brown is one of the best players in a class that produced 7 All-Stars, another who was the second-best player on a champion (Jamal Murray), and several key role players.
• 7/8/2016:  The Celtics signed Al Horford to a 4-year, $113M contract.  After years of not acquiring a star in free agency, Boston signed the second-best player in this free agency class after Kevin Durant.  In a year where contracts were inflated due to a cap spike, Horford’s ended up being amazing value.
• 6/19/2017:  The Celtics traded the 1^st pick in the draft to the 76ers for the 3^rd pick and a future first.  Boston realized that their top choice, Tatum, was going to still be available with the third pick since the 76ers wanted Markelle Fultz and the Lakers wanted Lonzo Ball.
• 6/22/2017:  In the 2017 Draft, the Celtics selected Jayson Tatum with the third pick.  While many like to laugh at the teams who passed on Tatum, it’s worth noting that Boston was criticized at the time for this pick (in particular, ESPN gave Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Phoenix all grades in the 90’s for selecting who were considered the top-3 in the class and gave Boston a grade in the 70’s).  I liked this pick since Tatum was my third favorite player in this class (my top two were De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk), though I wasn’t expecting he’d become the player he is now.
• The Celtics traded Avery Bradley and a second-round pick for Marcus Morris.  While this isn’t relevant for this season, it was an early sign of the weight that Boston was putting into size and versatility.  While Bradley was a great defender, he is an undersized guard, whereas Morris is 6’8.
• 7/14/2017:  The Celtics signed Gordon Hayward to a 4-year, $128M contract.  Hayward was one of the top free agents in this class due to his ability to shoot, score, and be a playmaker at his size.
• 8/30/2017:  The Celtics traded for Kyrie Irving.  They really didn’t give up that much to get him (they gave up Brooklyn’s 2018 pick, Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas, Ante Zizic, and a future 2^nd), and the writing was on the wall for most of the players included in this trade.  It also was a sign that Boston was ready to move on from a smaller guard in Thomas and a smaller power forward in Crowder.  While the trade didn’t end up working out great for either team, Ainge finally made the massive swing that many hoped he would.
• 10/17/2017:  Gordon Hayward broke his tibia and ankle less than 6 minutes into opening night.  I genuinely believe this was a franchise changing moment and was the beginning of the end of the super team they had created.
• 5/27/2017:  The Celtics lost Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals to the Cleveland Cavaliers, 87-79.  Even though they just made the Conference Finals the year before, this year was different since they were without Irving and Hayward.  This was the first showcase of what Tatum and Brown could become.
• 6/21/2018:  The Celtics selected Robert Williams with the 27^th pick in the Draft.  He was expected to be a top-15 pick for most of the process until he fell due to concerns about injuries and maturity.  The Celtics took a chance on him and, when healthy, easily hit a home run.
• 7/19/2018:  The Celtics resigned Marcus Smart on a 4-year, $52M contract.  This one was a bit uncertain since Smart was a restricted free agent and was told by the Celtics to find out what his value was, but apparently had difficulties finding another partner.  Ultimately, both sides came to an agreement.
• 6/20/2019:  In the 2019 Draft, the Celtics made several picks, including Romeo Langford with the 14^th pick and Grant Williams with the 22^nd pick.  Langford fit the type of mold as Jaylen Brown as an athletic wing with upside, though he never panned out.  Williams, on the other hand, ended up playing a key role for them for a few years.
• 7/6/2019:  The Celtics signed Kemba Walker to a 4-year, $140.8M contract in a double sign-and-trade where Charlotte got Terry Rozier.  At that time, Walker was a healthy All-Star who was also a beloved teammate and leader, which was something Boston was craving.  As for Rozier, while he played well in the 2018 playoffs, he regressed the following season when he returned to a bench role.
• 7/7/2019:  Kyrie Irving signed a 4-year, $136.5M deal with the Brooklyn Nets.  While there were several issues with the Celtics in the 2018-19 season, Irving became the scapegoat for fans.
• 7/10/2019:  Al Horford signed a 4-year, $97M with Philadelphia.  This was a strange contract since Philadelphia appeared to sign Horford since Joel Embiid struggled against Horford, yet he didn’t fit there.  Boston lost a starting level big man and was stuck with trying Daniel Theis there for a bit.
• 10/21/2019:  The Celtics signed Jaylen Brown to a 4-year, $106.3M rookie extension.  Despite having a tough season, it was clear that Brown had a ton of upside, which made this contract feel like a steal at the time since it wasn’t a max extension.
• 11/18/2020:  The Celtics made several moves in this draft, including selecting Aaron Nesmith with the 14^th pick and Payton Pritchard with the 26^th pick.  Nesmith didn’t get a ton of playing time in Boston, but looked like he had potential, especially in the second half of his rookie year.  Pritchard finally found a consistent role this season and has been a solid backup point guard.
• 11/29/2020:  Gordon Hayward signed a 4-year, $120M contract with the Charlotte Hornets.  It wasn’t surprising to see him leave Boston, but this one was a strange move for Charlotte.  Boston did a sign and trade to get a trade exception that wasn’t used for a lot (Evan Fournier and Josh Richardson).
• 3/25/2021:  In a 3-team trade full of reserves, Boston acquired Luke Kornet.  While he was raw and inconsistent, he has been a decent third center this season (it is worth noting that he made a couple of other stops in between Boston tenures, including in Maine with their G-League team).
• 6/2/2021:  Danny Ainge announced his retirement from the Celtics and named Brad Stevens his successor.  There were questions if Ainge’s job was on the line, so it wasn’t surprising to see him leave the organization.  The bigger surprise was to see Stevens opt to move to the front office.  I criticized the move at the time since I questioned what experience he had; clearly I was wrong.
• 6/18/2021:  The Celtics traded Kemba Walker, the 16^th pick, and a future 2^nd round pick for Al Horford, Moses Brown, and a future 2^nd round pick.  Stevens saw that Walker wasn’t going to be the best fit going forward with his injuries, so they moved him for a player who would fit great in Horford.  The 16^th pick ended up being Alperen Sengun, which hurts a bit to realize when seeing how good he is, but Horford was the better fit with Boston.
• 6/28/2021:  The Celtics hired Ime Udoka as their head coach.  In his lone season with the team, he was an excellent coach who excelled at the defensive end in particular.
• 8/13/2021:  The Celtics signed Sam Hauser to a two-way contract.  While there a lot of jokes at the time about how Hauser looked like a knockoff Gordon Hayward, Hauser’s shooting justified a G-League spot (I can’t say I expected him to be this good in the NBA though).
• 2/10/2022:  The Celtics acquired Derrick White in exchange for Romeo Langford, Josh Richardson, a 2022 1^st round pick, and a 2028 pick swap.  There was a lot of risk involved in this move, especially with Boston being average at the time.  That said, I thought White would be a good fit; that said, I didn’t expect White was going to be as amazing as he’s been the last two years.
• 2/10/2022:  The Celtics traded for Daniel Theis in exchange for Bruno Fernando, Enes Freedom, and Dennis Schroder.  Schroder wasn’t a good fit in the locker room (or on the court), Freedom was going to be a liability defensively, and Fernando wasn’t playing for them.  Theis was a favorite of Brad Stevens in his previous Boston tenure and was beloved by the team, so this wasn’t surprising to see.
• 2/11/2022:  The Celtics signed Luke Kornet for the remainder of the season.  The Celtics had several roster spots open, and Kornet ended up making the roster again and was a nice 3^rd big this season.
• 6/16/2022:  The Celtics lost Game 6 of the NBA Finals to the Golden State Warriors, 103-90.  Despite an incredible run in the second half of the season, the Celtics were clearly outmatched by the Warriors.  That said, it was great experience for the team.
• 7/9/2022:  The Celtics acquired Malcolm Brogdon from the Pacers in a trade.  Due to some questions regarding his health, Boston didn’t end up giving up that much (the major aspects were Aaron Nesmith, who wasn’t getting much playing time, Daniel Theis, who barely played, and a first-round pick).  He ended up being the Sixth Man of the Year in his lone season with Boston.
• 7/9/2022:  Luke Kornet signed a 2-year, $4.5M contract with the Celtics.
• 7/9/2022:  Sam Hauser signed a 3-year, $6M contract with the Celtics.  He progressively earned more playing time, which has made this contract become a steal.
• 9/22/2022:  Ime Udoka was suspended for a season due to an inappropriate relationship with a staff member.  Joe Mazzulla was named the interim head coach.  This was viewed as a huge blow, especially given it was so late in the offseason, but I considered it to be the right move by the Celtics.
• 2/16/2023:  Joe Mazzulla was named the head coach of the Celtics.  After the Celtics had played well to that point, they lifted the interim tag from Mazzulla.
• 6/22/2023:  The Celtics turned the 25^th pick in the draft (which was acquired in the next move listed) into the 38^th pick, which they used to take Jordan Walsh, and 4 2^nd round picks.  A rumor is that they liked Olivier Maxence-Prosper, though Dallas acquired him with the 24^th pick, so Boston kept trading down and getting more assets since Walsh was their next favorite target.
• 6/23/2023 (realistically this was earlier, but the trade took a while to get approved):  The Celtics acquired Kristaps Porzingis in a trade.  It was a risk, since they had to give up Marcus Smart, though I thought it was for the best since I thought Derrick White was better at that point than Smart was (which was a controversial opinion at the time).  I wasn’t certain how Porzingis would fit, but he’s been perfect for them when healthy.  They also managed to move up in the draft while acquiring the best player in the trade.
• 7/11/2023:  Grant Williams signed a 4-year, $53.3M contract with Dallas.  Even though he played well in Boston, it was clear he was not the player that was right for the next few years.  The surprise was that Boston didn’t take back a player in the sign-and-trade.
• 7/25/2023:  Jaylen Brown signed 5-year, $304M contract with Boston.  His supermax contract became the highest contract in NBA history.  While criticized at the time, he had a great season, and will likely not own the highest contract after Tatum breaks the record this offseason.
• 9/17/2023:  The Celtics signed Neemias Queta to a two-way contract.  He didn’t play a ton, but he ended up providing some value as a reserve center in pinch situations.  They ended up converting his contract to a standard deal later this year.
• 10/1/2023:  The Celtics traded Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, and 2 first round picks for Jrue Holiday.  A lot of people viewed this as a risky trade, but this trade has been a slam dunk for Boston.  Holiday was such a great fit.  They also signed him to an extension this season.
• 2/7/2024:  The Celtics traded for Xavier Tillman in exchange for Lamar Stevens and 2 2^nd round picks.  Even though Tillman didn’t play a ton for Boston, they didn’t give up much of anything in order to get him.  He’s had some value for them in a pinch.
• 2/8/2024:  The Celtics acquired Jaden Springer in exchange for Jaden Springer.  Even though he didn’t play a ton, there were a few games late in the season where he provided value off the bench, especially on the defensive end.

 

 

Dallas

• 3/19/2005:  The Dallas Mavericks promoted Donnie Nelson to General Manager.  While he had a roller coaster of a tenure, Dallas had success with some young international prospects.
• 5/9/2008:  The Dallas Mavericks hired Rick Carlisle to be head coach.  While he hasn’t been their head coach, he was with them for a long time and had an impact on the current squad.
• 12/18/2014:  The Dallas Mavericks traded for Rajon Rondo.  While the trade really flopped for Dallas, they also acquired Dwight Powell in the trade, who has been a steady presence since.
• 7/8/2016:  The Mavericks resigned Dwight Powell on a 4-year, $37.3M contract.  This was an especially good contract for that offseason considering this was an offseason that featured a massive cap spike, resulting in the offseason I refer to as the summer where everyone got paid.
• 7/8/2016:  The Mavericks signed Dorian Finney-Smith to a minimum contract.  While he went undrafted, they saw some defensive potential; he developed into a valuable 3-and-D player before being traded in 2023.  He also showcased the best types of player for Luka Doncic to play alongside.
• 6/22/2017:  The Mavericks selected Dennis Smith Jr. with the 9^th pick in the Draft.  While I was never high on him and he didn’t end up panning out, he showed potential as a rookie.  That said, the reason I included him is because he didn’t fit alongside Luke Doncic, which showed how much Doncic had to grow to play alongside another point guard.
• 7/13/2017:  The Mavericks signed Maxi Kleber.  He has been a valuable piece for the team since due to his shooting ability and his value defensively.
• 6/21/2018:  Dallas had one of the most successful draft nights I can remember.  They traded the 5^th pick and a future first to get the 3^rd pick and selected Luka Doncic, and selected Jalen Brunson with the 33^rd pick.  While Doncic wasn’t considered a sure thing (him going 3^rd wasn’t unreasonable at the time), I was high on him and thought it was crazy that Atlanta was willing to give up on him; it’s also worth pointing out that Doncic has exceeded my expectations.  I never thought Brunson would develop into what he has become, but I thought he should have easily been a first rounder.
• 1/31/2019:  The Mavericks acquired Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke, and Courtney Lee in exchange for Dennis Smith, Jr., DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews, and 2 1^st round picks.  It’s safe to say that Porzingis didn’t work in Dallas for a variety of reasons, but Hardaway is still with the team and has been a consistent bench scorer since the trade was made.
• 3/19/2019:  Dirk Nowitzki retired.  At this point, it felt like a passing of the baton to make this team fully Doncic’s team.
• 7/6/2019:  Dright Powell resigned with Dallas on a 3-year, $33.24M contract.
• 7/10/2019:  Maxi Kleber resigned with Dallas on a 4-year, $35.6M contract.
• 7/10/2019:  Dorian Finney-Smith resigned with Dallas on a 3-year, $12M contract, which ended up being one of the biggest steals of a contract that I've ever seen.
• 7/12/2019:  The Mavericks resigned Kristaps Porzingis to a 5-year, $158.25M contract.  They were so optimistic about him that they signed him before he even played a game with the team.
• 11/18/2020:  The Mavericks selected Josh Green with the 18^th pick in the NBA Draft.  While there has been a lot of focus on several players drafted after, Green has been a solid defender who has been an efficient scorer when not afraid to shoot; he’s been a nice player for them.
• 6/16/2021:  Donnie Nelson and the Mavericks mutually agreed to part ways.  After several struggles with trades and the draft, it sounded like the team was done with Nelson, so this wasn’t extremely shocking.
• 6/17/2021:  Rick Carlisle stepped down from his role of being head coach of the Mavericks.  There were significant rumors of him being fired in the next year or two, so seeing him resign wasn’t surprising.
• 6/28/2021:  The Mavericks hired Nico Harrison to be President of Basketball Operations.  Dallas wasn’t the first team to get into the business of hiring an agent to run the front office, but it was an interesting decision.  That said, he has found success in the role.
• 6/28/2021:  The Mavericks hired Jason Kidd to be their head coach.  It sounded at the time like Kidd and Harrison were a package deal, which was interesting.  I was mixed on Kidd as the selection since it had been a mixed bag in his coaching career, but he has been a great fit there, especially given the respect his style has gotten from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
• 8/9/2021:  The Mavericks resigned Tim Hardaway Jr. to a 4-year, $75M contract.  While he hasn’t played a ton in the playoffs, he has been a valuable piece for the team when healthy.
• 2/10/2022:  The Mavericks traded Kristaps Porzingis and a future 2^nd round pick to the Wizards for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans.  This trade felt like a sad move for both teams at the time, though Dinwiddie ended up being a valuable player in their run to the Western Conference Finals in 2022 while scoring at his most efficient rate ever.  Both players ended up being included in trades to acquire key players on the current roster.
• 6/23/2022:  In the 2022 Draft, the Mavericks traded 2 future 2^nd round picks to acquire Jaden Hardy, who was drafted 37^th.  I was surprised he fell as far as he did; while he had a tough season with the G-League Ignite that year, he projected to be a nice high-volume scorer.  While his minutes have been limited, he has provided a nice scoring punch off the bench and has been more consistent from 3 than I expected.
• 7/12/2022:  Jalen Brunson signed a 4-year, $104M with the Knicks.  This was a massive failure for the Mavericks, since there were reports out that Brunson wanted to extend with the Mavs early on, but they only agreed to discuss the number he initially wanted after he had clearly outplayed that number.  Losing him spurred the reaction to trade for Kyrie Irving.
• 2/6/2023:  The Mavericks acquired Kyrie Irving in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a future 1^st round pick, and a future 2^nd round pick.  The fit was a bit clunky at first, but Irving fit really well with Doncic offensively.  While they missed the playoffs that year, it wasn’t Irving’s fault; the issue was that their defense was atrocious, something that Dallas addressed in the offseason.  They also didn’t give up that much to get him since he had so many public controversies leading to that point.
• 6/22/2023:  The Mavericks entered the draft with the 10^th pick, and ended up trading down to the 12^th pick to take Dereck Lively II (by giving up the 10^th pick and Davis Bertans) and the 24^th pick to take Olivier-Maxence Prosper (they gave up some cash to get the 24^th pick and Richaun Holmes).  While Maxence-Prosper didn’t do a ton as a rookie, Lively had an amazing rookie year and instantly has provided value as a rim protector, screen setter, and lob finisher.  They needed a slam dunk (no pun intended) from their draft pick that they tanked to obtain, and it panned out very well for Dallas.
• 7/7/2023:  The Mavericks resigned Kyrie Irving to a 3-year, $120M contract.  It felt like a no-brainer to give him that after they traded for him, especially since he realistically would have commanded more had he not been embroiled in so much controversy.
• 7/9/2023:  Dwight Powell resigned with Dallas on a 3-year, $12M contract.
• 7/12/2023:  The Mavericks acquired Grant Williams in a sign-and-trade for a 4-year, $53.3M deal.  This was a massive flop where they were expecting him to be a key role player (which is something I expected as well).  They were excited to dump him at the trade deadline, so there’s that.  On the plus side, they used him to get P.J. Washington.  On top of that, Reggie Bullock, who they gave up, wasn’t all that good this year.
• 7/14/2023:  Dallas signed Dante Exum to a 2-year, $6M contract.  While he hasn’t played much in the playoffs, he was absolutely incredible for them in the regular season, as he provided much a significant amount of versatility defensively and was efficient when he shot.
• 8/18/2023:  The Mavericks signed Derrick Jones Jr. to a veteran minimum contract.  I was shocked that he was still available so late in free agency and that nobody offered him more than the minimum, since he is a good defender and great finisher.  He’s been just that, and has been a valuable wing/forward for them on both ends of the court.
• 2/8/2024:  The Mavericks acquired P.J. Washington and 2 2^nd round picks in exchange for Grant Williams, Seth Curry, and a future 1^st round pick.  I was critical of this trade at the time, but I was wrong; Washington has been an amazing fit for them.  He instantly bought in defensively and fit pretty well offensively, even when he didn’t hit 3’s.  He was an obvious upgrade over Williams, and while I didn’t think he was worth including a first round pick into the deal, he has proven that he absolutely is.
• 2/8/2024:  The Mavericks traded for Daniel Gafford in exchange for Richaun Holmes and a 1^st round pick.  I was even more critical of this trade since I’ve always found Gafford to be a bit overrated, but I’m eating my words.  All they needed him to do were defend the rim, set screens, catch lobs, and dunk, which is what Gafford is best at.  It also has taken pressure off of Lively, who is a good player, but is still only a rookie.

 

 

Finals Prediction

I’ve seen a lot of people predict the Mavericks will win just because of how easy of a path Boston has had to the Finals.  Two issues with that:  first, that ignores the fact that Boston was without Porzingis, and second, that ignores just how dominant Boston was all season.  Dallas is an amazing team who played great at the end of the season and playoffs, and genuinely deserves to be in the Finals.  That said, I think Boston is not the best matchup for them.  In particular, Boston’s size allows them to put Jayson Tatum on their big on the court, which will cause issues for any pick-and-roll that is set on Luka Doncic.  While Dallas’s depth is amazing, do we trust P.J. Washington, a 31% 3-point shooter for Dallas this year, to shoot from 3?  While he shot 47% on 8 attempts a game against OKC, he regressed back to 25% against Minnesota.  On top of that, Derrick Jones Jr. attempted a career high 3.1 3’s a game during the season and shot 34.3%; how realistic is his 39.6% from the playoffs?  Boston has the fewest weaknesses out of everyone Dallas has played throughout the playoffs, so I don’t see Dallas pulling it off in a best-of-7 series.  I think it’ll go 6 games though, and I expect at least 2 will come down to the wire and potentially go to overtime, but I don’t understand why people are predicting against Boston after we watched an entire season where they dominated everyone; is everyone expecting that Kristaps Porzingis will look that horrible coming back from injury?  Boston, 4-2

Who do you think will in the Finals?  Anything you're excited for?  Let me know in the comments!