2024 WNBA Finals Prediction

After some fun playoff series, the WNBA Finals are here!  After a playoff run that included no surprises (the better seeded team won in each series, which was also what I predicted), the two top teams made the Finals, resulting in a matchup of the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx.  The teams are built differently, as New York is a super team that is now on year two of the team, and Minnesota is a deep team that has several players who they acquired this offseason.  I think the two teams will put on an intriguing series.

My favorite part about both teams is that they have so much versatility, especially on defense.  Neither team has a traditional big, but both teams have so much size.  On New York’s side, the Breanna Stewart/Jonquel Jones “big” combo is interesting because they are versatile on switches defensively and are both so skilled on offense that it is difficult to defend either.  On the other side, Napheesa Collier could be the best player in this series (while I would say normally Stewart is a better player overall, Collier isn’t that far behind her), and Minnesota also has a versatile forward combo in Bridget Carleton and Alanna Smith, both of whom can do so much in a supporting role.  Both teams also have star guards in New York’s Sabrina Ionescu (who is scorching from 3 right now after struggling from deep all season) and Kayla McBride.  Both teams have several strong role players as well, as Minnesota has Courtney Williams who has embraced and thrived in the playmaker role, Natisha Hiedeman, and Myisha Hines-Allen, all of whom play a nice role, and New York also has Betnijah Laney, Leonie Fiebich, Courtney Vandersloot, and Kayla Thornton.  There are three things I think are interesting and am excited to watch.  The first is how Fiebich does in this series; New York has started her in lieu of Vandersloot, which I think makes a lot of sense given the style of play that both play.  So far, Fiebich has been amazing offensively, especially from 3, and has been solid defensively in the role.  While the length is better, I think she could still continue playing well.  The second big question is how the shooting will go.  In general, both teams have struggled from deep during the entire playoff.  While both teams are skilled outside of shooting and talented defensively, if one team hits the 3’s more, it will be tough to beat them.  Lastly, what version of Jones do we get?  While New York dominates when she gets a double-double, she fell off a cliff after the Olympics.  While she has been good in the playoffs, she has not played to the same level prior, where I thought she had already cemented an All-NBA case.

Prior to the playoffs, I thought New York would win this in 5 games, but there is one major issue that Minnesota is going to face:  they just played a game against Connecticut 2 games before Game 1 and played each of their starters at least 30 minutes, while New York had additional games off in that span.  As such, I think Game 1 will be New York’s, which gives them an added edge to the series.  Solely because of that, I am predicting it to only take 4 games.  That said, it should not be considered a major shock if Minnesota ends up winning this series.  I’d be surprised if either team won in 3 games just because they are both so good, but I could see either team winning in 4 or 5 games.  I’m still really looking forward to this series.

Prediction:  New York, 3-1

 

Who do you think will win the Finals?  What are you excited to see?  Let me know in the comments!