2025 WNBA Playoff Predictions
Now that a fun WNBA regular season is done, the playoffs are about to start. In each series, I have my prediction, a brief analysis, and the x-factor, which includes a role player who could be important in this series.
First
Round
1
Minnesota Lynx vs. 8 Golden State Valkyries
Don’t get me wrong, Golden State exceeded all expectations
and deserves a playoff spot, but I think they’re dead in the water here. Minnesota is just so much better than Golden
State in just about every aspect of the game.
While Golden State’s defense will probably be competitive, I don’t think
they’re going to be good enough to get out of this series alive.
X-Factor: In a
quick series, it would be ideal for Minnesota to get a lot of minutes out of
their bench so their starters are still fresh.
On top of that, I think there’s still a little bit of work that could be
done to make DiJonai Carrington a great fit in the half court. While she has shown that she is a great fit
on both ends due to her defensive aggressiveness and versatility and ability in
transition, she still isn’t the cleanest fit in the half court since she’s not a
natural off-ball shooter. While she’s
been great for Minnesota, I think that she could fit and play even better for
them.
Prediction:
Minnesota, 2-0
2 Las
Vegas Aces vs. 7 Seattle Storm
On August 2nd, Vegas was 14-14, and while there
was some promise, as it looked like they figured out Jewell Loyd’s role for the
team’s success, they looked far from the team that they have been over the last
few seasons. Since then, they haven’t lost
a game, and while their net rating still 5th due to poor defense and
stretch of close games during the winning streak, they look like a team that
could make the Finals. On the other
hand, Seattle was 16-11 on July 28th, and then traded for All-Star
Brittney Sykes after a couple tough games.
Since then, they went 7-12 to finish 23-21, stumbled their way to the
playoffs, and don’t have a consistent lineup that can be trusted. While Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins have
been amazing this year, Gabby Williams and Sykes both looked lost on offense
after the trade and the team appears uncertain regarding whether they should
play Ezi Magbegor (who is a more consistent defender, but hasn’t been as good
with the team since the trade due to her offensive limitations) or Dominique
Molonga (who has been better as the season has gone on, but is still
inconsistent as a 19-year-old). For
Vegas, they have tried a few different starting lineups, but they have it set,
as A’ja Wilson was dominant, Jackie Young figured out her jumper after a slow
start, and Chelsea Gray, Loyd, NaLyssa Smith, and Dana Evans have all been incredible
in their roles. I don’t know how Seattle
even wins a game in this series, after which they might need to take a long look
in the mirror to determine what they are and what their future is besides
Molonga.
X-Factor:
Since being traded to Las Vegas, NaLyssa Smith has been an amazing fit
with the team due to her finishing ability, size, defensive versatility,
athleticism, and shooter percentage when she opts to shoot. She especially has more driving lanes when
she is playing with either Jackie Young or Jewell Loyd, both of whom have been shooting
very well from deep while letting it fly.
Having Smith, who is 6’4, playing alongside A’ja Wilson is especially interesting
to watch due to their size, which will mean that no matter what a starter for
Vegas will be taller than 6’2 Nneka Ogwumike, who would likely be guarding one
of Wilson or Smith. I think she makes
this series a lot more challenging for Seattle, especially if she is
aggressive.
Prediction: Las
Vegas, 2-0
3 Atlanta
Dream vs. 6 Indiana Fever
Indiana should be recognized with how they even made the
playoffs after dealing with so many injuries.
In particular, I love the chemistry that Kelsey Mitchell and Aaliyah
Boston developed this year. Atlanta is
so much deeper and more talented than Indiana, so they should absolutely be a
favorite. I think Indiana is going to be
in a bit of trouble without several of their shooters, especially when they
have to go up against Allisha Gray, who is an MVP candidate and clear First-Team
All-WNBA player. I think the combination
of Mitchell/Boston’s offense and Rhyne Howard’s inconsistencies from the field
this year could result in Indiana winning one game, but I would be surprised if
Indiana won.
X-Factor: The
improvement that Naz Hillmon has shown during this season has been absolutely
unreal, as she has gone from a reliable enough backup to the likely Sixth Woman
of the Year while performing so well that she has been in the starting
lineup. While she has always been a good
defender, she has improved her defense to the point where I wouldn’t blame
voters if she received multiple All-Defense votes. One thing that was expected when coach Karl
Smesko was hired was that the team would take more 3-pointers, and it has
totally changed Hillmon’s game. It took
a while for her to get more consistent, but she is much more comfortable and
has improved significantly from deep as the season went on. Her shooting (as well as the team’s shooting)
has allowed her finishing to be more efficient.
She is such a key part of their team on both ends, and will be a key
role player in this series.
Prediction: Atlanta,
2-1
4 Phoenix
Mercury vs. 5 New York Liberty
Everyone appears quick to say that New York is an easy
choice to win this series, especially since New York is now healthy, but I
think there are some serious concerns with the team. While neither team has been amazing in the
second half, New York kind of limped their way into the playoffs while Phoenix
went on an 8-1 stretch prior to dropping their last 3 games. While Breanna Stewart looked better after returning
from her injury as time went on, she only topped 20 points twice and 50% from
the field in her 7 games after returning from injury. While she is still an amazing talent, she is
not quite herself yet, meaning that Alyssa Thomas, who was elite at everything
except for shooting this year, is the best player in the series at this
time. While Sabrina Ionescu dealt with
some injuries, she was atrocious over her last 11 games, as she shot 35.3% from
the field and 24.6% from 3 while averaging just 12.8 PPG on 12.1 attempts per
game; she also only reached 50% from the field twice and never topped 18
points. The most important star on the
team is arguably Jonquel Jones, who has also been unimpressive over her last 11
games; while New York won every game that she scored a double-double in this
season, she only had 3 in her last 11 games while 12.4 PPG and 6.8 RPG while
appearing much more passive than usual. Despite
inconsistent performances from Satou Sabally and Kahlea Copper, who still haven’t
figured out how to be the perfect fits with this roster, I think Phoenix looks
more ready and is better at this point.
That said, I think it’ll be a close series.
X-Factor: Monique
Akoa Makani has had an amazing rookie year and has a good chance of making the All-Rookie
team after being an international rookie who was previously undrafted. Her offense has fit very well with the team
as she is a sharpshooting guard who doesn’t need the ball in her hands a
lot. There are two things that will be
interesting to watch in this series.
First, she will face more size than she would in most matchups. Second, she has actually shot from a better
clip on the road than she did at home, which is an oddity for role
players. With there being an extra home
game for Phoenix in this series (if the series lasts 3 games), it will be
interesting to see how she shoots from the field.
Prediction:
Phoenix, 2-1
Semifinals
1
Minnesota Lynx vs. 4 Phoenix Mercury
I’ve marveled at just how good Phoenix has been this year,
especially compared to my expectations, but Minnesota is just so amazing. Minnesota is amazing at both ends of the
court and will likely give Phoenix a ton of trouble in the half court, where
they aren’t as strong offensively. On
top of that, Phoenix has several role players who are rookies, which will make
things a little tougher for them since rookies (no matter how experienced they
are overseas) usually aren’t the most consistent in their first playoff
series. I also expect that there will be
some matchup difficulties, since they have offensive talent at each position
between bigs, guards, and wings. The
good news for Phoenix is that they have several bodies to throw at Napheesa
Collier to try to slow her down. The bad
news is that Minnesota has the versatility that would make it difficult for
Phoenix to score, especially when their jumper is streaky. Minnesota is also just so much better than
Phoenix and more consistent. Even still,
Phoenix is talented enough to win 1 or 2 games.
X-Factor: Despite
not playing a traditional big, Phoenix is a bigger lineup, which they can do
due to Alyssa Thomas playing guard at times.
As such, I’m interested to see how Jessica Shepard does in this matchup. She has finished at the best clip of her
career this year, which I think is a result of Minnesota’s spacing. On top of that, she is a good defender,
especially inside the arc. It will be
interesting to see how she defends multiple Phoenix players, since she will
have to defend several players in transition, especially since Phoenix plays
faster. She could end up guarding
Thomas, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper, and DeWanna Bonner in between stoppages
of play, which is interesting since they’re each between 6’1 and 6’4 but play
so differently. I can’t wait to see how
she holds up when she’s giving their starters a break.
Prediction:
Minnesota, 3-1
2 Las
Vegas Aces vs. 3 Atlanta Dream
Even though everyone focuses on Las Vegas’ massive win
streak to end the season (as they should), it should be noted that Atlanta also
finished the season very well, as they went 15-3 down the stretch. Both teams are great and have figured out
some interesting lineups; I hope we get this series since I think it could go 5
games. I think there will be one game
where Atlanta totally blows out Las Vegas and that at least 3 games will be
close. There are two reasons I think Las
Vegas will win even though it goes against a lot of the analytics (even during
the streak, Atlanta was better in several metrics). First, I think A’ja Wilson will absolutely
dominate. Atlanta’s bigs will likely
struggle defensively, as Brionna Jones isn’t the best playoff defender and
Brittney Griner has declined a little bit (which is natural as a player gets
older). On top of that, Vegas has been
great in close games compared to Atlanta (Vegas is 15-5 in single-digit games,
with their last loss being on July 10th, and Atlanta is just
11-11). I expect a few of these games will
be close, which will favor Las Vegas.
That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if at least two games go to overtime; either
team could win.
X-Factor: Atlanta
takes so many 3’s that they will need great shooting to keep up when the 3’s
are falling. Dana Evans has become a
good shooter off the bench for them (she shot 36.6% from deep), but she only
shoots 2.3 attempts per game and goes through stretches where she only shoots 1
a game. It’s weird to see her take more
2’s than 3’s since she only shot 40.5% from 2 (this is after she shot almost as
well from 3 as she did from 2 last year), but you still want her on the court
even still. They will need her to be
willing to shoot; even if she misses a couple, I’d still want her to keep
shooting, but her playing history has indicated that she will stray away from
it. Even still, she is a great bench
player to have, especially with a more aggressive shooting Jewell Loyd next to
her.
Prediction: Las
Vegas, 3-2
Finals
1 Minnesota Lynx vs. 2 Las Vegas Aces
After a 5-game series where Game 5 went to overtime, the
WNBA decided that this year would be the first time where it will be a best-of-7
Finals series. There is a catch though: while New York and Minnesota were largely
evenly matched last year, Minnesota is so much better than Las Vegas. While there will be a fun storyline of the
likely top-2 finishers for MVP (Napheesa Collier and A’ja Wilson), Las Vegas is
not the team that Minnesota is, despite their massive win streak. Even in this run, they have a weak defense,
which I think will make it too difficult for an elite team on both ends of the
court. Minnesota is just so much better
than everyone else, so I think Minnesota could beat anyone with 6 or fewer games.
X-Factor: The way the
matchups are going to work, Minnesota could end up in an odd situation where
Bridget Carleton is guarding someone who is a poor offensive player and is being
guarded by someone who is one of their weaker defenders. I wonder if this could give her more energy
as the game goes on, which will be so valuable.
They could also utilize her as a screen setter; even though this is not
her typical style, she only takes 5.8 shots per game, so it makes sense to at
least give it a try. While her offensive
game is limited, she is a great shooter, so you really have to keep a defender
on her. She is also a great defender who
can guard multiple defenders, so having her involved in switches is not an
issue for Minnesota. It blows my mind
that she is an afterthought when she is such a valuable 3-and-D player who is
the perfect fit for this team.
Prediction: Minnesota,
4-1
What do you think will happen in the playoffs? Let me know in the comments!
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