2025 WNBA Finals Predictions

The WNBA Finals is here for a matchup of the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury, and let me be one of the many to add to one general response regarding how we got here:  how the hell did we end up with the playoffs that we have?  I thought there was no way that Minnesota would not win the championship, and they were eliminated in a game where Napheesa Collier was injured and Cheryl Reeves was suspended.  I thought Indiana was dead in the water in the first round, but they made it to overtime of Game 5 of the Semifinals.  I gave up on Las Vegas in the middle of the season, but they have made the Finals.  Prior to the season, I had Phoenix missing the playoffs, but now they are also in the Finals.  In other words, after years of pretty strong predictions, I feel like I have no idea what I’m doing anymore.  With that said, let’s pretend I know what I’m doing and make predictions.

I feel like most people are going to predict Vegas to win this series, which makes sense given their reputation, success in the second half of the season, and the fact that A’ja Wilson is one of the (if not the) best player in the WNBA.  While Phoenix has some serious concerns (notably the half-court offense and how inefficient their players have been from the field), I’ve had serious concerns about Vegas even throughout their run and the playoffs.  The biggest issue for Vegas is their defense; they were below average during the regular season and playoffs.  Phoenix has been elite defensively during the playoffs, and I think their size and versatility will cause problems against Vegas, especially when Vegas is using a smaller lineup.  On top of that, with Vegas’s defensive struggles, I think Phoenix will have their best offensive series.  Phoenix has made it as far as they have without any of their players shooting efficiently from the field, largely due to having to play great defenses in Minnesota and New York; I expect it will be easier to score on Vegas’s inconsistent defense (outside of Wilson, I don’t trust any of their players on the defensive end more than around 90% of the time, with several being a lot less than that).  Additionally, I think Phoenix’s depth is more consistent than Vegas’s, though I do like the supporting cast of both teams.  Even the top talent for Phoenix might be more impressive, which sounds strange to say; while Wilson is the best player in the series, the only other consistent high-level offensive option at this point for Vegas is Jackie Young, while Phoenix has Alyssa Thomas (who has been more aggressive with her shot than ever before), Satou Sabally, and Kahlea Copper.  Even while Sabally and Copper have been a bit inconsistent with their shot selection, I am curious to see if they exploit being guarded by a smaller player (especially when we inevitably reach a point where Sabally is guarded by Chelsea Gray).  I don’t think Vegas has enough great defenders to hide weaker ones.  Another aspect to watch out for is the fact that Vegas is likely not going to be as well-rested as Phoenix is going into this series, which will be tougher in both Game 1 and Game 7, if the series lasts that long. 

With all that said, Vegas can still win, especially if they control the tempo in such a way that takes Phoenix totally out of the game.  Phoenix has been bad in the half court all season, so they need to make sure they have one or two players who bail on the offensive rebounds to defend transition.  While this might be counterintuitive based on fundamentals taught to young basketball players (which is something that should be taught even before worrying about transition offense), Phoenix is athletic enough and fast enough that it makes sense for Phoenix to send at least one perimeter defender down the court as soon as the rebound is being grabbed.  If Vegas also sends two players instead of going after the offensive rebound, this will slow them down.  I think this makes sense considering the fact that Phoenix is bigger than Vegas, so I would expect that they’d outrebound Vegas anyways.  While Vegas is a great 3-point shooting team, I think they need to focus on the transition defense because shooting usually gets less consistent as bodies get tired since players naturally don’t jump as high.  If they take away Phoenix’s biggest weapon offensively, I think we could see Phoenix really struggle to score.

Even while I’m favoring Phoenix, it could go either way.  I’m really intrigued to see two teams play who are so different stylistically despite seemingly having similar principles offensively and a nearly identical net rating during the season.  I think it will be a fun matchup for the stars especially, as I am excited to see multiple from each team shine.  While I think Wilson will be dominant, I’m curious to see who stars for Phoenix.  I am excited for this series to be a best-of-7, though I don’t think it will go that far due to Vegas likely being a little more tired.

Prediction:  Phoenix, 4-2

 

Who do you think will win the Finals?  Let me know in the comments!