2026 Men’s March Madness Bracket and Predictions

March Madness is back, and in this post, we will focus on the madness that I expect will ensue on the Men’s side (my post about the Women’s tournament will be released tomorrow).  The reason I word it this way is because for the first time, I have absolutely no idea who will win the tournament, let alone make the Final Four.

For the Men’s tournament, there are four metrics I use:  draftability score (a metric I created that looks at players who could be drafted while favoring those who are older), three point percentage, defensive rating, and free throw percentage.  The best of these metrics at predicting the winner has been the draftability score, while free throw percentage has been an predictor of upsets in the early rounds.

Historically, a score of at least 10 has been a strong indicator of a team winning the championship.  There is a slight problem:  there are 17 teams remaining that have a score of at least 10, while another has a score of 9 that should be treated like a team with a 10 (I’ll get to that in a minute).  Instead of giving in-depth analysis on a few teams (what I normally do and will do for the Woman’s tournament), I will instead give a sentence or two about each 18 teams remaining I hinted at above.  The number listed is their draftability score, and they are ordered by draftability score and then by seed.

As a note, NC State also had a drafatbility score of 11, but they lost to Texas in their First Four matchup.

 

1. UConn (19): A team with a strong defense and the top score in the draftability ranking, but they are younger than most winning teams and are on the lower end of the spectrum in the shooting metrics.
2. St. John’s (18): Another team with a strong defense, but I have no confidence that they can hit shots.  They also are a 5-seed, which could work against them as the rounds go on.
3. Purdue (16): They have excellent shooters, but they are worse defensively than most teams that win.
4. Florida (15): While they have a strong defense while playing a difficult schedule, they are one of the worst shooting teams in the tournament.
5. Illinois (15): They are a great free throw shooting team, but they are young and below average for tournament teams in 3P% and Defensive Rating.
6. UCLA (15): They were excellent at shooting, but poor on defense; they also are a 7-seed, which is historically not a great spot to be in.
7. Arizona (14): They are strong defensively, but have several young players and are a below average for tournament teams in FT%.
8. Houston (13): They have more young players than most Houston teams and are below average at 3-point shooting for tournament teams, but they are top-10 in the other metrics.
9. Vanderbilt (13): While on a hot streak and a great free throw shooting team, they are below average defensively.  They also are a 5-seed.
10. Kentucky (13): Is this team even good?  They have a high draftability ranking, but are young, at best 45^th in any of the other metrics, and a 7-seed.
11. Duke (12):  While they have a strong defense, their shooting numbers are not as good.  I am also torn on their youth; while young teams don’t usually do well, they have multiple freshmen who have a high basketball IQ.  Caleb Foster’s injury could also play a role.
12. Iowa State (12): This team is so weird since they are strong in every metric except for FT%, where they are the second worst team in the tournament (the only team worse is Long Island University, who is a 16-seed).
13. Gonzaga (12): They had the top defensive rating in the tournament, but they are poor at the shooting metrics.
14. Kansas (12): They are a little below average at 3P%, but are at least in the top-third of the tournament teams in the other metrics.  The thing I’m most worried about is what they’ll get from Darryn Peterson, who has dealt with an injury that has randomly taken him out of games.
15. North Carolina (12): The only metric that they are better than 40^th out of tournament teams is draftability ranking.  With them being a 6-seed, are we sure they’re good, especially since the ACC felt a bit underwhelming?  It’s also worth noting that Caleb Wilson is injured.
16. Michigan State (10): They are balanced in all the metrics, but they also don’t feel like they’re set up to dominate, especially since star Jeremy Fears is a bit streaky with efficiency.
17. Wisconsin (10): I feel like a broken record here, but Wisconsin is great at shooting but bad at defense.  They’re also a 5-seed, which could be tougher.
18. Michigan (9): They are balanced in all the metrics, but they would be the first team with a draftability score of less than 10 that would win the tournament since I started using this metric; something worth considering is that the metric doesn’t give extra benefit for players being 6-year players like Yaxel Lendeborg, which would give them extra points.

 

Ultimately, I feel the most confident in Houston beating Arizona in the Championship and have a Final Four of Houston, Arizona, Iowa State, and UConn.  I don’t love any team, but this seems like the most likely in my opinion, I guess.  I think we could see a lot of chaos.

 

Upsets

1^st Round

Wright State (14) vs. Virginia (3)

This might sound insane, but this reminds me of when Oral Roberts upset Ohio State in the first round of the tournament in 2021 as a 15-seed.  Like Ohio State in 2021, Virginia has a low draftability score for their seed (Virginia has a score of 2 while Ohio State had a score of 0), is facing a good shooting opponent, and isn’t the best free throw shooting team.  Usually a first round big upset occurs when a team is full of sharpshooters.

Akron (12) vs. Texas Tech (5)

This game could be a fun shootout, but I really don’t trust Texas Tech for long without star JT Toppin.

Texas (11) vs. BYU (6)

I think this game could go either way, but I’m a little worried about BYU without Richie Saunders, who is injured and out for the tournament.

CONDITIONAL:  SMU (11) vs. Tennessee (6)

I am writing this prior to the SMU vs. Miami-Ohio game.  This is a result that is conditional if SMU beats Miami-Ohio.  I think SMU is almost as good as Tennessee in a single game situation and will outshoot them; that said, I don’t think Miami-Ohio stands a chance.

Texas A&M (10) vs. St. Mary’s (7)

Saint Mary’s might have better metric scores, but Texas A&M had a tougher schedule and has a non-zero draftability score, which St. Mary’s cannot say.

 

2^nd Round

Akron (12) vs. Alabama (4)

I originally had Alabama winning this one, but Aden Holloway’s arrest and subsequent suspension make it tough to wonder where the very efficient 16.8 PPG will come from.

 

Possible Upsets

1^st Round

• Illinois (3) vs. Penn (14)
• Kansas (4) vs. Cal Baptist (13)
• UNC (6) vs. VCU (11)
• Miami (7) vs. Missouri (10)

 

2^nd Round

• Gonzaga (3) vs. Texas (11)
• Tennessee (6) or SMU (11) vs. Wright State (14) (dependent on if Miami-Ohio beats SMU in the First Four; I think Tennessee would beat Miami-Ohio, but would lose to SMU)

 

The Coin Flip Bracket

A ridiculous and hilarious tradition I have is to create a bracket where the entire draft is determined by flipping a coin, and this year was a doozy.  The NCAA might have a stroke if they have to promote a Final Four with a 14-seed, 15-seed, and 16-seed, but at least there’s…St. Mary’s?  I kind of hope that something this chaotic happens; it would be so funny.

  

Who do you think will win the tournament?  Any games you are interested in?  Let me know in the comments!