2026 NBA Playoff Predictions
We have reached the end of the NBA regular season, meaning that the playoffs are finally here! Now that we know the 7 and 8 seeds in each conference, we can finally make predictions! I think there will be several series that are going to be competitive at the minimum and exciting at the maximum. For each round, I gave some analysis, an X-Factor for each series who is not a star, and my prediction.
1st
Round
East
1 Detroit
Pistons vs. 8 Orlando Magic
Congratulations Orlando, you somehow managed to make the
playoffs after throwing up all over yourselves to fall to the 8 seed! In all seriousness, they’re not a bad team,
but they’re not great; they’re offense isn’t as good as it feels like it should
be and their defense took a dip from last year.
On the other hand, Detroit feels like a better version of what Orlando
wants to be in every way. I don’t see
Orlando standing a chance here.
X-Factor: Tobias Harris got a bad rap based on him
not living up to what Philadelphia wanted him to be while he was there, but he
has been a nice player on Detroit’s lineup.
He’s not a star, but he’s been a great supporting cast member, as he’s
played hard on both ends, done a good job at getting to his spots, hit shots,
and played well defensively. This series
could be a test for him because he will likely either have to guard Paolo
Banchero or Franz Wagner, which might be challenging at points. I think he can hold his own, as Banchero has
struggled with efficiency throughout his career and Wagner hasn’t been the same
since returning from his injury, but he might be a little tired on the other
end, especially if he’s guarding the physical Banchero.
Prediction: Detroit, 4-0
2 Boston
Celtics vs. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
I will say that I am glad that Philadelphia beat Orlando as
a basketball fan because I would not have wanted to watch a 4-game series of
Boston against Orlando (I’d expect a sweep) would be much worse than a best-of-7
series against Philadelphia. I think
there will be a couple games where Philadelphia can make it close and even win
one of them, but this is still going to be a tough matchup for them. I believe that Boston has a roster that makes
it tougher for Philadelphia. The wings
and forwards that Boston has will be tougher for Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe
to gain space, especially considering the versatility that guys like Derrick
White, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum have.
Without Joel Embiid guaranteed to be healthy, I think it’s going to be
difficult for Philadelphia to come out on top of that series. Even with that, Philadelphia is a good team,
so it’s not like them being swept is a guarantee.
X-Factor: Despite the fact that Philadelphia operates
as an average pace on offense, they have the potential to fly up and down the
court with players like Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre, and Dominick
Barlow. Boston has several wings who can
run, but I think Baylor Scheierman could be valuable in these situations. He has developed into a good defender while
having the size to be able to potentially guard anywhere from 1-4 in this
series. He is also a good shooter who
has found a role due to being willing to do the dirty work. If I were Nick Nurse (the coach of
Philadelphia), I would try to exploit a fast-paced offense to speed up Boston,
who operates the slowest offense in the league.
This probably won’t work given Boston’s depth, but throwing all the
athletic wings out there, including Scheierman, could help slow things down.
Prediction: Boston, 4-1
3 New
York Knicks vs. 6 Atlanta Hawks
It stinks that Atlanta put themselves in a situation where
they are facing New York instead of Cleveland since I think that they could have
given Cleveland a run for their money.
On the other hand, I think New York is better than Atlanta, which will
make this a tough battle for them. New York
seems to be having an existential crisis every other day, usually centered
around the question of whether Karl-Anthony Towns is good enough for a team
with championship aspirations (insert Clippers or tree joke here). While Atlanta has several athletic and
talented forwards and wings, including Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and
Jonathan Kuminga, I think the forward/wing combination of Mikal Bridges, OG
Anunoby, and Josh Hart will be able to slow them down some. Even though New York’s offense has stretches
where it looks like they have never played together, their offense is still
very good, so it will likely be a tough series.
Atlanta’s fast paced offense and New York being themselves will likely
make it a closer series than it should be, which works for me because I have
loved watching Atlanta this year ever since the Trae Young trade.
X-Factor: With Atlanta’s lineup made up of several
players who are fast and athletic, New York can easily get lost in the shuffle,
especially since they seem to look lost whenever things are out of their
control. Not surprisingly, the perfect player
to handle all of this is Josh Hart. While
Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are better defenders, Hart is the guy who I trust
to run to keep up with the faster pace and be physical right back. While his scoring can be streaky, he was more
efficient than ever this season. He is
just the guy who will do all the little things and make the winning plays. My favorite stat about him is that he is the
team’s third best rebounder after Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. He will be essential with all the wings and
forwards that Atlanta has.
Prediction: New York, 4-2
4
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5 Toronto Raptors
Maybe I’m an old man shouting at clouds (I might be given
how my knees were feeling during the run I went on with my dog on Sunday), but
I’m honestly annoyed that Cleveland was clearly trying to get the 4-seed and
then ended up facing Toronto instead of Atlanta, who I thought would have given
them more trouble. Toronto has been fine
throughout the season, but they have been .500 since February 11th
and have dealt with random injuries and inconsistencies throughout the season;
I feel bad since I really like their roster construction, especially with so
many players who have thrived in their roles.
I think Toronto will have some issues with the defense that Evan Mobley
and Jarrett Allen provide in the paint and midrange, making them rely on
3-pointers a bit more than they often do.
While Toronto has some wings who have solid size, Donovan Mitchell and James
Harden are physically strong enough to hold their own, especially on offense. I think Cleveland is significantly better,
but it will still take them 6 games due to their knack of getting in their own
way.
X-Factor: For some reason, there continues to be a
debate of who the fourth starter for Cleveland should be because injuries and
lack of trust continue to rear their ugly head.
I know that Dean Wade is a good shooter who is big and that Sam Merrill
has a reputation of being an elite shooter (which he is), but I have a fun
fact: Jaylon Tyson had the highest 3-point percentage out of anyone who
attempted at least 4 3-pointers this year (that excludes Olivier Sarr, who
randomly went 2-3 from deep in 4 games), as he shot 44.6% from deep on 4.5
attempts per game. I get it if they want
Tyson off the bench because he takes more 2’s than 3’s, but he is amazing at
getting to his locations and to the right spot.
I was very high on him in the 2024 Draft (I had him 9th on my
board, which sounded insane at the time) due to the fact that I thought it was almost
certain that he could end up being like this as an off-ball talent. He can also hold his own defensively, which I
think is enough with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the team. With the number of wings that Toronto has,
Tyson can play a big role in this series, especially on switches on both ends
of the court.
Prediction: Cleveland, 4-2
West
1
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8 Phoenix Suns
Analysis
It stinks that Phoenix ended up being the 8 seed since they
had a very good season, but that’s how the league is this year, especially with
10 teams who were either tanking by the end or were just outright
terrible. I’m interested to see if Phoenix
just comes out guns blazing with their physicality, especially if they take a
leash off Dillon Brooks, but I think that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won’t be able
to be stopped in this series. I could
see one game being a single-digit game and another game being close at the half
(probably the first and fourth games), but I would be surprised if Phoenix won
more than one game.
X-Factor: In my opinion, first round series between
the 1-8 seeds are a great way for the bench players to get going because the
best teams are usually significantly better than the 8 seed. Despite Phoenix having a good season, OKC is
that dominant that this applies. Ajay
Mitchell had an amazing season and provided valuable minutes as a backup due to
his aggressiveness as a scorer and finishing ability for a guard. Obviously nobody can replace SGA, but he showcased
an ability to provide an aggressive scoring punch who looks for his own shots,
making him a valuable piece when SGA is off the court. While he’s not an elite defender, he is also
a good team defender who competes and holds his own on that end of the court. Something worth noting is that he hasn’t been
as good as of late; while a small sample size, all his numbers and efficiency
numbers were down during his last 8 games, starting the game after he wasn’t
with the team. I think this might be a
fluke, especially since his numbers were better immediately coming back from
his injury, but it’s worth monitoring.
Prediction: Oklahoma City, 4-0
2 San
Antonio Spurs vs. 7 Portland Trail Blazers
Given how great San Antonio has been this year, this matchup
makes it sound like Portland isn’t a good team, which I don’t believe at all
despite their inconsistencies on both ends.
The problem is that San Antonio is just that dominant that I don’t think
Portland has much of a shot. Portland
will put up a fight in one or two games, but I think the likeliness of them
winning due to San Antonio having a tough shooting game is a better bet,
especially if their rim protectors have a good game and make scoring at the rim
even more difficulties. While Victor Wembanyama
is elite offensively, I think the other stars are also valuable on offense, especially
De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle; they also have several consistent
shooters. I also think that Wemby’s
defense will make it very difficult for Portland to score at all. Portland had a good season, especially in the
second half, but they ended up in a tough situation with this matchup; San
Antonio is just significantly better.
X-Factor: Portland has multiple bigs who are good rim
protectors, including Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams. While some would focus on how they will do
against Victor Wembanyama, I’m more interested in how Keldon Johnson will play
against them. While he has been a good
shooter this year, his best looks often come from 2 right near the rim. His driving ability has felt better than ever
this year, even as some of his teammates had streaky jumpers. If Clingan and Williams are able to get away
with dropping to the rim, how will this effect Johnson’s offense? I still think he’ll be able to score,
especially since that would give Wemby some more room to operate.
Prediction: San Antonio, 4-1
3 Denver
Nuggets vs. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
This series could either be the most exciting first-round
matchup due to two teams facing each other who create an interesting pairing
while having past playoff matchups, or two injury-laden teams leaving all fans
with disappointment. If everyone is
healthy, we can get Nikola Jokic and Anthony Edwards at their primes, who are at
or near the top of the sport, as well as All-Stars in Jamal Murray and Julius
Randle, alongside several other players.
Denver had the best defense in the game this season despite not taking a
boatload of 3’s, which has been super interesting to watch, while Minnesota has
been strong defensively as there’s a case to be made that they don’t have any
bad defenders in the starting lineup (having Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels
also helps immensely). The biggest
question I have is who will be healthy; are Edwards, Aaron Gordon, Peyton
Watson, Christian Braun, and Cam Johnson healthy? I have no idea about health, so we’ll go with
Denver in 7 since they’re better on paper.
X-Factor: If Minnesota starts raining 3’s, Denver
will need someone to help make 3’s, but that’s why they have Tim Hardaway
Jr. Over 70% of his shots are from deep
while shooting above 40%, which is going to be essential since he is arguably
their top offensive option off the bench.
He isn’t that great of a defender, but he does have playoff experience,
most notably from his tenure in Dallas. Most
importantly, he knows his role and is excellent at it, which could help out in
the playoffs.
Prediction: Denver, 4-3
4 Los
Angeles Lakers vs. 5 Houston Rockets
This matchup is such a sad result to get. While there is normally one that is a little
disappointing or is the one that ends up on NBA TV due to smaller markets,
those usually had interesting matchups. In
this series, we have a Lakers team who is without their two best offensive
players (I said it) in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves facing a Houston team whose
offense has cratered after getting off to a hot start due to offensive
rebounding numbers (before Steven Adams’ injury, their offense looked like it
was built around missing shots, though now it doesn’t look like there is any
rhyme or reason to it). In order for the
Lakers to win, they need someone other than LeBron James to do something
offensively. If they can get a big series
from Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, or Luke Kennard…I can’t do this. Kevin Durant will likely dominate and be a
lot of fun, Amen Thompson will make everyone’s life hell on offense, and
Alperen Sengun has the opportunity to torch Ayton. I think James will win the Lakers a game and
Houston’s offense will lose themselves a game, but any result for Houston worse
than winning in 6 games should be a slap in the face.
X-Factor: With L.A.’s two best offensive players potentially
both being out for the entire series and their offense relying on a 41-year-old
LeBron James, Houston likely can survive with Ime Udoka’s favorite lineup,
which eschews offense in favor of defense by starting Tari Eason over Reed
Sheppard. Eason is great defender whose
physicality is essential, but his offense is a bit inconsistent. While he’s a good shooter, there is some
streakiness, which coincides with his struggles from 2 this year. I think the Lakers without Doncic and Reaves are
the only matchup they could have gotten which would allow Eason to start, which
will be huge for their defense. The
other hand is if L.A.’s defense will be better without Doncic and Reaves,
meaning that Eason will have a more difficult time on offense.
Prediction: Houston, 4-2
Conference
Semifinals
East
1 Detroit
Pistons vs. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers
This will likely be a controversial opinion, but most teams
that try to make sure that they are a worse seed to get a more favorable
matchup are doing this because they are not good enough to make the Finals (the
best example I can think of is the Clippers in 2021, who honestly only beat the
Jazz because they couldn’t miss a 3, highlighted by Terance Mann, who attempted
1.4 3’s a game that season, going 7-10 in the final game). I think this is true about the Cavs, who are
a good team on paper, but haven’t consistently showed that they are a great
team this year. I don’t trust Detroit’s
offense, especially since a lot of it is based on offensive rebounding, but
their defense is so good. I think that
they have the wings, size, and physicality that will make life difficult for James
Harden and Donovan Mitchell; even if Cade Cunningham has a rough shooting game,
I think his size will make him enough of an irritant to frustrate
Cleveland. I also think that Jalen Duren
will torch Cleveland. I think there will
be a couple games where Cleveland outplays Detroit, but I believe Detroit is
better than them in a series.
X-Factor: Cleveland starts and gives significant
minutes to two bigs in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. While Jalen Duren is going to play big minutes,
Isaiah Stewart will likely be an essential part of the series. Stewart is an amazing defender who is
extremely physical, which I think could give Mobley a lot of trouble in
particular. While he is the best at
defending closer to the rim, he can stretch out to defend the midrange. He has developed a solid jumper as well,
which helps the Pistons spacing. I
genuinely believe this series was built for Stewart.
Prediction: Detroit, 4-2
2 Boston
Celtics vs. 3 New York Knicks
I am very excited for this series due to how well each team’s
style of play pair against each other.
Both teams allow a lot of 3’s and almost no 2’s on defense and operate
at a slow pace without turning the ball over and shooting well. I also think the size and depth of each team could
make this a very fun matchup. I love the
versatility of both teams and am curious about who each team will use as their
primary defenders on their stars (especially from New York and who of OG
Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart will be on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen
Brown). I think it could be a close
series, but I think Boston will win.
First off, Boston allows a ton of shots from 3, while New York is a bit
streaky from deep. Second, New York will
be in trouble when Karl-Anthony Towns gets into foul trouble and Mitchell
Robinson is tested by intentionally fouls (the Joe Mazzula specialty). Third, there are stretches where New York
looks totally incompetent on both ends; even while they are playing well, it
looks like they hate each other and don’t know how to play with each
other. I think Jaylen Brown will switch
onto Jaylen Brunson or Towns so much and score so many points against them.
X-Factor: When Karl-Anthony Towns is out of the game,
the Knicks have Mitchell Robinson as a backup, who is super valuable due to his
rebounding, defense, and physicality. Even
though Joe Mazzula has gone with the strategy of intentionally fouling Robinson
to keep him out of the game (I think that’s a great idea since Towns will
inevitably commit some dumb fouls to remove himself from the game), I am curious
who Boston will use as a backup big.
While Neemias Queta has been amazing this year, especially as a
defender, finisher, and rebounder, I’m not sure that acquiring Nikola Vucevic
has helped like they planned, as Luka Garza has consistently outplayed Vucevic
since the trade. Garza has had an
amazing year due to stretch the floor while not being outmatched against backup
bigs defensively. They will need him to
be able to handle Towns or Robinson unless they trust Vucevic, but that will be
the same problem.
Prediction: Boston, 4-3
West
1
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5 Houston Rockets
There are 3 series that could be very exciting; this is the
fourth. I don’t think Houston will be
any match for OKC in this series. In
fact, I’m not sure what to say about this one.
Even while Houston has size, OKC does too and is so elite on both ends and
will make life insane for Houston.
Houston’s offense is likely not good to outscore OKC. Houston might win a game if OKC can’t hit a
shot, but that would require Houston hitting shots. Sorry Houston fans; this is a tough matchup.
X-Factor: I’m curious how Cason Wallace will fare
against the size of Houston. He is an
elite defender who plays above his size while also able to defend guards
smaller than him. He is a good shooter,
though he goes through stretches where he isn’t the strongest shooter. I could see his offensive game having
struggles, especially since Houston doesn’t allow a ton of threes, but I think
he will hold up well defensively.
Prediction: Oklahoma City, 4-0
2 San
Antonio Spurs vs. 3 Denver Nuggets
If Denver is healthy, this series will likely be very
exciting. The obvious focus will be the
Nikola Jokic vs. Victor Wembanyama matchup, which is a lot of fun given how
different they are. Wembanyama can
stretch the floor, but his best aspect is his defense, especially in the paint;
on the other hand, Jokic is one of the best offensive talents we have ever
seen, especially as a passer and scorer.
I think that Jokic can still have success against Wemby, but it will
really depend on who the next best player is in the series. I think Jamal Murray will be that guy, especially
coming off his best season yet; that said, don’t sleep on De’Aaron Fox or
Stephon Castle stepping up. The biggest
concern I have about San Antonio is their shooting; they will go through
stretches where Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, and Julian Champagnie are the
only guys who can hit 3’s, which could happen if Denver’s defense shows up
(while Denver was atrocious defensively this year, Aaron Gordon and Peyton
Watson, who are Denver’s two best defenders, both missed significant
time). I hope this is a long series,
since I think all the matchups will be so much fun. I have Denver winning, but I could see either
team winning this one.
X-Factor: Denver has not had a good year defensively
due to injuries, but I think this could be a big Peyton Watson series at that
end. Watson has always been a freak athlete
who was able to be a good defender by relying on that, but his IQ has improved
a lot as well, making it look like he knows what is going on during plays and
getting ahead of them rather than banking on catching up (he can still do that
though). I think he can guard 1-4 with
ease while also defending smaller bigs on switches in glimpses, but I love seeing
him on perimeter guys due to his length and ability to catch up when someone
gets by him. In addition to becoming one
of the best defenders on the team, his scoring and shooting ability has also
improved significantly, making him an amazing player to have on the court on
both ends. They need him healthy and
playing at his best, especially to have him defend their great guards.
Prediction: Denver, 4-3
Conference
Finals
East
1 Detroit
Pistons vs. 2 Boston Celtics
I hope we get this series since all four games Detroit and
Boston played against each other were so close (the largest deficit in any game
was 7 points), but all four games were played before Jayson Tatum returned from
injury. That said, I believe multiple
games will be close even with Tatum playing as well as he has because I thought
that Detroit was better than Boston in most of the games they played (even
while the games were close, I often was happy that Boston was keeping it close as
a Celtics fan because I thought Detroit was outplaying them). What I am most interested in is that Boston’s
defense allows a ton of 3’s and very few shots from 2 (they have designed their
defense to play this way), but Detroit barely shoots any 3’s while taking a ton
of shots from 2. Coincidentally, Detroit
also doesn’t allow a lot of shots from 2, but that won’t be as applicable with
Boston given their reliance on 3’s. The
other thing to watch is that Detroit’s best defenders are not as good
offensively; while I would love Amen Thompson and Ron Holland to be on Jaylen
Brown and Tatum, but can they hold up offensively in this series? I think Boston will win because Detroit has
questions about their offense, but I still think this will be a fun series; I hope
we get it.
X-Factor: Detroit’s bigs have been amazing all year,
while led by Jalen Duren, so this series is one for Neemias Queta. He has improved so much this year, as he went
from being the fourth big in Boston’s lineup to being a high-level starting
big. He is an excellent defender,
finisher, and rebounder who has been a great fit in Boston while being just the
paint defender that they needed. Facing
Duren will be their biggest test up until this point, as Duren is a physical
big who has dominated in the paint by bulldozing past his opponents. Queta doesn’t need to be better than Duren
(this is not a fair expectation), but needs to hold his own.
Prediction: Boston, 4-2
West
1
Oklahoma City vs. 3 Denver Nuggets
While there will be excitement of an SGA vs. Jokic series
and the best offense facing the best defense, I actually am not that enthralled
about the idea of this series since I think OKC is that much better than Denver. OKC’s defense is so elite that two of SGA, Lu
Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, and
Alex Caruso would either not enter the game on defense or be removed from the
game for defensive reasons, even though just about any other team would be elated
to have them on the court defensively. As
amazing as Jamal Murray is, I would keep throwing guys at him to tire him down;
I think OKC has the depth to just keep throwing any talented perimeter defender
at him. I don’t trust Denver to slow
down OKC’s offense; while there isn’t any stopping SGA, OKC has so many bench
players who can offer a variety of skills, including shooting, shooting,
finishing, and competitiveness. I think
Denver is good enough to win at least a couple games, but I would be surprised
if Denver wins unless there defense is much better in the playoffs.
X-Factor: Obviously it doesn’t make sense to try to
stop Nikola Jokic because he is one of the best players in the league and doesn’t
appear to be able to be stopped. Isaiah
Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren could do their best in the paint, but I think that
Jaylin Williams could be an interesting wrinkle on offense. Williams is at the point where almost 75% of
his shots are from deep, which is nice in pulling Jokic away from the paint,
which sin’t his best defensive region.
Williams provides so much value to OKC.
Prediction: Oklahoma City, 4-2
Finals
1 Oklahoma
City vs. 2 Boston Celtics
As a Celtics fan, I obviously would love Boston making the
NBA Finals, but I am especially excited about the potential for this matchup as
a basketball fan. Both games they played
against each other were pretty competitive, although I do believe that OKC is
the better team. While I think Jayson
Tatum and Jaylen Brown will both be great, the bigger thing to watch how Payton
Pritchard and Derrick White do.
Pritchard wasn’t that good in both games against OKC, which doesn’t
really surprise me given that he still struggles some against physicality (it
is worth noting that he has improved against it, but still). White only played one game and struggled from
the field in it, which doesn’t surprise me given his stretches of
inconsistencies from the field that plagued him all season. Something else I am interested in is to watch
how turnovers go; while Boston doesn’t force many turnovers and OKC doesn’t
turn the ball over, Boston never turns the ball over while OKC forces a
ton. It will be interesting to watch
this push-pull of how that works. While
both teams are deep, I think OKC’s supporting cast members are a little
stronger than Boston’s, and I think that will do it. I could see either team winning, but I think
OKC will get it done in 6 games, 4 of which are close.
X-Factor: Even though he has played less this year in
large part due to the rise of Cason Wallace, I think that Alex Caruso could be
a nice addition to the series. While he
doesn’t do a ton on offense at this point, especially with his shot being poor
this year, he is a physical defender who
Prediction: Oklahoma City, 4-2
Who do you think will win the championship? Are there any teams or matchups you are excited about? Let me know in the comments!
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