2026 NBA Finals Prediction

After an interesting playoffs where I got almost none of my predictions correct (I only had one Conference Finals team correct, which was OKC, and they didn’t even make the Finals), we have finally reached the NBA Finals, where we will get a matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks!  I think this will be an exciting series with the two teams matching up well, even with two totally different paths to this point (the only team that gave New York trouble was a talented Atlanta team, while San Antonio is coming off a 7-game series and has played 18 games during the playoffs thus far).

I am interested to see the matchups that both teams use.  I think the most intriguing one will be what the Knicks do with Victor Wembanyama.  While I believe the best bet is to have OG Anunoby on Wemby, I don’t expect that they will trot this matchup out immediately (nor should they).  If they utilize Karl-Anthony Towns on Wemby, but Towns is not a good defender, especially in the paint, and often picks up unreal fouls.  At that point, bringing in Mitchell Robinson results in him being forced to shoot free throws.  I am also interested to see how New York and San Antoino handle the wings and guards for each team.  Personally, I would keep rotating the wings and guards as the series progresses to mess up opponents and to help energy and endurance.  I think the most important aspect is if San Antonio could have Stephon Castle on Jalen Brunson as much as possible.  While Castle has shockingly shot well, I think the most important think he can do is play defense.  I also think that the shooting numbers are interesting this series; New York is shooting 40% from 3, which is unreal, and San Antonio’s shooting numbers have also been good.

At work, one of my coworkers said that he thought that whoever won Game 1 would win the series.  I think the problem with this logic is that San Antonio just played late whereas New York have been resting for so long that it could cause some wackiness.  I think this will be an exciting series where it takes at least 6 games.  Ultimately, I’m a little scared about Mitchell Robinson’s injury, which makes me have the Spurs winning.  That said, take my predictions with a grain of sault after how bad my predictions entering the playoffs.  Prediction: San Antonio, 4-3

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