2026 WNBA Playoff Predictions

After a fun regular season, the WNBA Playoffs have arrived, and it could be such a fun year!  While I usually feel pretty confident about a lot of my predictions, I believe that 6 of the 8 playoff teams could win the championship (sorry New York and Dallas, who I think have no chance), though I think the top-3 teams are most likely.  There could be upsets, even if my predictions don’t always indicate this.  For each series, I included analysis, one role player who could be an x-factor, and a prediction.

 

First Round

1 Minnesota Lynx vs 8 New York Liberty

For starters, I don’t believe that Minnesota’s 2-4 finish to the season was anything more than a weird stretch; I do not believe this is anything indicative of this team’s fate in the playoffs.  Minnesota has 5 players who were all-stars in the last two years (including 3 All-Stars from this year), as well as a sixth woman who would be a starter for New York.  While I could see Olivia Miles struggling this round, they still have Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and Natasha Howard, all of whom have had playoff success and are impressive veterans.  I think that they are too good for New York to handle, especially since there will be games where 5 of the top 6 players in the game would be for Minnesota (especially since Jonquel Jones has had games over the last couple years where she just didn’t seem to be in the game).  I get that New York has a lot of good players, but they have been so inconsistent this year.  With all the injuries they have dealt with and the fact that one of their best players (Satou Sabally) will be out for the playoffs and another (Sabrina Ionescu) has been atrocious from the floor for the second straight season, I have little faith that they can hold up against this talented team.  If Brianna Stewart was able to hit more of her 3’s, I might have confidence, but one of the best shooting forwards in league history cannot hit 3’s for the third year in a row (I have no idea what happened to her jumper).  Unless 4 out of 5 starters on Minnesota shoot under 30% in a game or New York goes something insane like 15-20 from 3, I don’t see New York even winning a game.

X-Factor: After a couple of tough seasons, Nia Coffey had arguably her best season at the age of 31.  She had her most efficient season while balancing efficiency from 3 and 2 for the first time in her career (it was always one or the other, but not both) and thrived defensively.  After a couple of tougher seasons in Atlanta where she struggled with efficiency and struggled to find a role, she was an amazing sixth woman and fill-in starter (with all their injuries, she started more than she came off the bench).  I think she can provide versatility at either forward spot or the 5 in pinches, which allows her to switch significantly on defense.  Breanna Stewart will likely play a ton of minutes for New York given that she is their best player, so Minnesota would benefit from having bodies to throw at her.  I think that Coffey can defend Stewart and Jonquel Jones while also hitting her 3’s; they likely won’t need her to do a ton unless there are injuries, but I think she will thrive with what they need from her.

Prediction: Minnesota, 2-0

 

2 Golden State Valkyries vs 7 Dallas Wings

I understand all the excitement around Dallas, but I think they are the least equipped to win a round.  Once Azzi Fudd went down, I questioned how their shooting would be, and the answer looks like it is non-existence.  As for Golden State, their defense has rightfully gotten a lot of attention given how elite their team defense and the individual defenders are (out of their 10 players who play the most minutes, I think all of them are great defenders; when there’s a case that Cecilia Zandalasini might be their worst defender, you know that they’re in great shape on that end).  I believe that Golden State has answers for Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale in Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton even before getting to their other guards and wings.  On top of that, Golden State’s offense relies heavily on 3’s, which will make it tough on Dallas, who doesn’t shoot 3’s.  I can’t even imagine Dallas winning a single game in this series; Golden State is that much better than Dallas.  If Dallas wins a game, that will mean that Bueckers and Ogunbowale likely have the biggest games imaginable.

X-Factor: While I continue to marvel at how bad Kiah Stokes has been offensively, she is an elite defender who might have had her best defensive season.  While I have always marveled at the versatility that has allowed her to guard almost anybody in glimpses, I think her rim protection was as good as it’s been in a decade.  With Azzi Fudd out for the series, there will likely be more attempts at the rim, which makes Stokes so valuable.  Dallas barely takes 3’s, and without Fudd, it will be even worse.  If Stokes is in the paint and even does okay there, I think Dallas is in trouble; the good news for Golden State is that I don’t see her only being okay given how amazing she is and the playoff experience that she has.

Prediction: Golden State, 2-0

 

3 Las Vegas Aces vs. 6 Indiana Fever

I think this could be the most fun first round series to watch due to both team’s style and star talent.  It’s a bit of a bummer that NaLyssa Smith is out for the remainder of the season since I think that would have made this series even more exciting.  Both teams are efficient from everywhere on the court and have strong offenses, so anybody can be easily entertained by watching a lot of shots going in.  This series also has two MVP candidates in A’ja Wilson and Caitlin Clark (who would probably me my top-2 choices if I had a vote), as well as Kelsey Mitchell, Jackie Young, Aaliyah Boston, and Chelsea Gray, all of whom are excellent.  I also think it will be interesting to see what Vegas does given their lack of wing depth (their best wing is probably Gray, who is a guard who ends up playing wing by default at the end of games with Vegas’ three-guard lineup).  I also think the juxtaposition of an Indiana offense style where Clark is more ball-dominant (though she has been willing to take shoots off-ball and allow others to play more on-ball this season, which is something I hoped would happen since it unlocks her shooting ability in a way that she has never been able to showcase before) and a more spread out style where both Gray and Young topped 6.5 APG and Wilson topped 3 APG as a big.  I am interested how Vegas approaches the now single-season scoring record holder in Kelsey Mitchell, who has thrived off the ball as she, Clark, and Boston have now figured out how to play with each other offensively in such an impressive way (I thought it was a struggle in Clark’s first two seasons, but it is a beautiful thing to watch now).  I also wonder if Indiana can do anything against Wilson, who had the second-most points all-time this season (I know that there were more games than ever this season, but only 13 points separated the two of them); I don’t think one player can, so is it best to just keep throwing bodies on Wilson to see if they can tire her out?  While I think Indiana will win big one game (I would guess Game 1), I think their defense will struggle against Vegas in this series.

X-Factor:  After NaLyssa Smith went down with injury, Vegas tries having Brianna Turner starting in her place, which was fine since Jewell Loyd was finishing games anyways.  That said, it’s worth wondering how this will work against Indiana, who plays a fast-paced spread offense.  Vegas started 3 bigs to end the season, and I wonder how long it will take before they have to bail on this strategy.  Even if Turner falls out of the starting lineup, she is such a good defender that I think she has to have a role with this team given how strong she is on that end.

Prediction: Las Vegas, 2-1

 

4 Atlanta Dream vs. 5 Washington Mystics

While I think both teams have the talent to go far, I think this could be a weird series and playoff run for either team since I don’t think either team makes a ton of sense as a playoff team on offense (though both are incredible defensively).  Atlanta has a balanced diet of 2’s and 3’s, though are poor from 3 and often bail defenses out when driving by not getting all the way to the rim and favor the 3-10 foot range instead of the 0-3 foot range (there are a bunch of players who do this in the WNBA and NBA, which drives me crazy since they can often either get to the rim or force a foul by taking one more dribble); on top of that, a big part of their offense comes from free throws, which might not translate if the league allows more physicality in the playoffs.  On the other hand, Washington’s poor offense (it’s the worst out of the playoff teams) largely relies on rebounding, as they were a bottom-5 team in 2P%, 3P%, and FT%, which is something that I don’t think that I have never seen in a playoff team; while it worked in the regular season, this is also something I don’t think will translate.  Ultimately, I’m a little nervous about Washington’s experience (outside of Benijah Laney-Hamilton, who ended up being available for throwing a shoe on the court, which is one of the funniest sentences I have ever uttered), their team contains a whopping 6 games of playoff experience.  I think that Atlanta’s top-4 of Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Angel Reese, and Jordin Canada will be too much for Washington’s first playoff series, but I think that Washington will at least force a third game that will be close for the first 3 quarters.  I also think that Atlanta’s season has been consistent with the exception of a strange 5-game losing streak in the middle of the season, which was the only time they lost back-to-back games.  Either way, expect a grind it out series that contains a lot of rebounds for Reese, Shakira Austin, and Kiki Iriafen.

X-Factor: Washington’s size makes Naz Hillmon’s presence huge for this series.  While she has had value as a stretch 4 for Atlanta (despite her jumper being a bit streaky), I think her driving, finishing, and defensive versatility make her even more valuable presence, especially since she seems content being the 5^th option on a top-heavy roster while playing hard on both ends.  The catch is that she doesn’t rebound a lot; while a big part of her decline on the boards is due to Angel Reese’s presence, the number of rebounds she gets as someone who plays the 4 is startling low.  Washington starts Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin, both of whom are excellent rebounders, so Atlanta will likely need Hillmon’s help since it would be unfair to expect Reese to do it all by herself (although Reese is elite at boxing out, it’s unfair to expect her to box out everybody…though don’t sleep on her ability to do that).

Prediction: Atlanta, 2-1

 

Second Round

1 Minnesota Lynx vs. 4 Atlanta Dream

After I sounded so low on Atlanta and so high on Minnesota in the first-round analysis, it might sound weird that I think that this will be an exciting series.  Now that Atlanta received manna from Heaven after DeWanna Bonner was bought out by Phoenix, I think that we could end up seeing a series where each team is playing 6 or 7 players a game by the end of the series, which will be a lot of fun to see the starters play a ton (the main thing that can ruin that is if Courtney Williams plays so hard that she welcomes some rest, which is beneficial for her playing style and is helpful for the team, but is annoying for my selfish viewing reasons).  I think this series will be a huge test for Olivia Miles, as I think Atlanta’s defense could eat her up, which would make it a huge thing for Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, and Williams to thrive in those moments.  The catch for them is that I think Atlanta’s big-4 of Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Angel Reese, and Jordin Canada are well-equipped to deal with them defensively.  I also think that Minnesota’s defense will make it tough for Atlanta, so it will be a lot of fun to watch the adjustments that Cheryl Reeve and Karl Smesko, both of whom are amazing coaches, make throughout the series.  I also think it will be interesting to see how Collier and Natasha Howard, both of whom have served as the de facto 5 in the small lineups that Minnesota always uses, can deal with Reese, who isn’t a traditional big but is an elite rebounder on both ends.  I hope we get this series since I think the matchup will be really exciting, even if I have questions about Atlanta’s playoff outlook, but I think Minnesota is just a better team.

X-Factor: Despite Atlanta’s injuries, I believe that Atlanta’s size could be a challenge for Minnesota.  Normally, I would say that Minnesota is in good shape with their size, but I think that Dorka Juhasz’s struggles this season takes some of their depth away.  After taking last WNBA season off, she dominated in Euroleague this year, making me think that she would instantly slide into a huge role off the bench for Minnesota, and I couldn’t have been more wrong.  She managed to be worse at everything on both ends of the court except for blocking shots, causing her minutes to be the lowest of her career, making me wonder if she should be playing in the playoffs.  Minnesota might need her in this series, especially if it is the grueling series I expect it to be, so she needs to perform.

Prediction: Minnesota, 3-2

 

2 Golden State Valkyries vs. 3 Las Vegas Aces

While I think that Golden State is a series title contender (prior to the final playoff seeding being determined, I was wondering if they were the favorite), I am sad to say that I think this will be a tough series for them.  While Golden State has a lot of depth, I think the lack of top-level offensive talent will make it difficult against Vegas at the end of close games, who has A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and even Chelsea Gray, any of whom I trust more than any player on Golden State.  I do think that Young, Gray, and Jewell Loyd could struggle in this series against Golden State’s size and physicality, as well as how many players they can throw at them, but I don’t see Wilson being slowed down consistently.  I think the thing that I would watch out for is how much the depth Golden State has that they can just keep throwing out there, especially since I don’t love Vegas’ depth without Smith.  That said, top-level talent is often more important at this point in the playoffs, and I’m not sure that Gabby Williams or Veronica Burton would be reliable enough in the playoffs as a top option (though both are talented players, I don’t think either are consistent enough as a scoring option offensively). 

X-Factor: With NaLyssa Smith’s injury, it’s natural to wonder who will take the shots that she would normally take.  Stephanie Talbot, who was the 5^th starter since somebody needed to be and Vegas figured that Kierstan Bell might not be the best choice, suddenly had a strong finish to the season while being willing to score a little more.  She only attempted 3.3 shots per game this season, but averaged 8.3 PPG on 70% from the field in the last 6 games of the season (which includes the games Smith got injured and the 5 remaining games after), as well as scoring 28 points across the final two games of the season.  This is a small sample size, but Vegas could use the additional scoring against Golden State’s elite defense.

Prediction: Las Vegas, 3-1

 

Finals

1 Minnesota Lynx vs. 3 Las Vegas Aces

I think this series could be an interesting one, though I think Minnesota is significantly better than Vegas is.  As much fun as the A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier matchup will be, as will seeing the matchups between the guards and wings, I feel like there is a bit of a dropoff for Vegas after their top-3 (I know people will cite Jewell Loyd as a talented player, but she has been a bit disappointing this year).  While Minnesota is not that deep either, they have 6 players who averaged at least 20 MPG and deserve this on any team, including 5 All-Stars from the last two seasons.  I have it taking 6 games because I think that Wilson and Jackie Young will dominate a couple of games and that Olivia Miles might struggle in her first Finals appearance.  It wouldn’t be shocking if Vegas won, but I cannot justify it in my predictions.

X-Factor: While rotations shrink as the playoffs go on, Minnesota will need a guard/wing to give them some additional minutes off the bench, and Maya Caldwell will likely be important in filling this void.  Given the number of players who are adept with the ball in their hands on this team, Caldwell is needed for two reasons: shooting off the ball and defending the wing.  Fortunately, Caldwell is very good at both of these.  While Caldwell will not be finishing games unless something goes very awry, Caldwell could provide value by slowing down each of Vegas’ 3 guards during the games to try and tire them out for the end of games.

Prediction: Minnesota, 4-2

 

 

Who do you think will win the Championship?  Are there any series you are excited about?  Let me know in the comments!