2026 WNBA Finals Prediction

After an exciting WNBA Playoffs, we have reached the Finals!  This year we have the Golden State Valkyries (in just their second year of existence) facing the Atlanta Dream (who has never won a Finals and last played in one back in 2013).  This is a matchup that everybody saw coming, especially me…just kidding, I was spectacularly wrong.  Either way, I am extremely excited for this series for two reasons.  First, this series is 100% not what the WNBA was hoping for, especially since Vegas and New York were just one round away (while Atlanta is a great team to advertise, Golden State doesn’t have the household star power).  The bigger reason that I am so excited is because I am fascinated by each of their playing styles and how the matchups will go.

Most of the focus will be on the defenses, which is justified given that Golden State and Atlanta are the top two defensive teams in the league.  I am fascinated by how both teams operate, especially since they approach it differently.  For Golden State, they get a good number of turnovers, but their biggest advantage on defense is their ability to force misses from everywhere; they are excellent at forcing opponents into difficult shots and never giving up on a play.  On the other hand, Atlanta’s excellent defense is more based on turnovers.  They are bad at getting blocks and allow high percentages from 2 and from 3, but they force so many turnovers, especially by getting steals.  I think it’s going to be interesting to see how both teams approach their defense, though I think it makes sense to stick with their normal strategies given the offenses.

I am most fascinated by how both teams operate on offense.  Golden State has operated at a slow pace, don’t get a ton of assists, but also shoot a ton of 3’s; I think this is the best shot approach since they are a good team from 3 and a terrible team from 2.  On the other hand, Atlanta’s offense appears to be based on missed shots; they are below average from 3 and average from 2, but they are elite at offensive rebounding (which isn’t shocking given several starters play in this way and aren’t the most efficient).  They operate at a much faster pace, though I think part of that is due to offensive rebounds adding possessions; the other part of their offense is that Jordin Canada has stretches where they need her to outrun everyone, which I think is the biggest part of why their offense is so fast.  I think it will be interesting to watch how both offenses operate given the fact that I think opposing defenses will match up well against the offenses.

Unfortunately, this series might come down to health.  Allisha Gray has been dealing with an injury and had a minor surgery which has put her as day-to-day.  Atlanta is already thin, as they have only had 6 other players who have even averaged 10 MPG.  Golden State has consistently 10 deep since the start of the season, and all 10 are at least good defenders.  I expect that Golden State will keep throwing players at Atlanta to try to wear them down.  If I knew that Gray was healthy, I would have this being a 7 game series, but I cannot justify that.  I still think it will be a fun and exciting series.

Prediction:  Golden State, 4-2

 

Who do you think will win the Championship?  Let me know in the comments!