2026 Women’s March Madness Bracket and Predictions
March Madness is back, and in this post, we will discuss the Women’s side! My post for the Men’s tournament was released yesterday, but I am especially excited for the Women’s because we could have a Final Four featuring all four 1-seeds…which is something that never feels right.
For the Women’s tournament, there are four main metrics I
use: record against top 25 teams, three-point
percentage, free throw percentage, and defensive rating. Unlike the men’s tournament where there is
one or two metrics that are key in predicting a winner, it really is a balance of
each and how the team plays, especially since some teams have dominated while rarely
shooting threes (South Carolina) while others have had struggles due to a lack
of consistency from deep. Defensive
rating is usually a better indicator in the first few rounds since most of the
higher ranked teams are also strong defensively.
In my bracket, I have UConn beating UCLA in the Championship,
which is a result that I feel confident in us seeing. The part I’m not sure about is the other
teams in the Final Four, which I have South Carolina (who could have a tough
matchup in the Elite Eight) and Texas (who I am not as confident in). Each of these teams is a top seeded team,
which terrifies me and makes me uncomfortable with, but I can’t justify any of
these teams losing. That said, I also
discussed 3 other teams I am intrigued by below.
Possible
Teams
UConn
Unless UCLA beats them (which I don’t predict), I don’t see
how anybody can beat UConn this year. While
they had a lighter conference schedule, they dominated all opponents they faced;
the only opponent they won by fewer than 10 points was when they beat Michigan
by just 3. They went 34-0 and were so
dominant (their average margin of victory was 38.4) that nobody on their team averaged
30 MPG and only 4 averaged at least 20 MPG (I’ve never seen anything like this
before). Their two stars are Sarah
Strong, who is a dominant force on both ends who can score from everywhere on
the court, make great passes, and had 5.4 stocks (steals + blocks) per game in
26.4 MPG, and Azzi Fudd, a sharpshooter who has always been great off the ball
while improving on the ball and also playing the best defense of her career
(she was always a good defender, but she has taken it to a new level this
year). They shot nearly 40% from 3, and
they have so many shooters who are at least reliable, including Strong, Fudd,
Allie Ziebell, Ashlynn Shade, Blanca Quinonez, Kayleigh Heckel, and KK Arnold. Nobody on this team is a defensive liability
(in particular, Strong, Arnold, Fudd, Heckel, and Quinonez are all amazing on
that end), everybody who played more than 10 MPG had an eFG% above 50% (which
is a rarity), and they have several players who can create plays for others,
even if they aren’t the lead ball handlers (though Arnold, Strong, and Fudd are
the ones who initiate the offense the most).
If you were to have any qualms about them, they aren’t the best
rebounders in the league, but they also have so few offensive rebounds since
they make so many shots; they also don’t shoot a ton of free throws, but their
offense is more perimeter focused. I
would be surprised if they end up losing, though I think the only team who has
a chance of beating them is UCLA.
UCLA
I’m surprised that there are a lot of people and experts who
don’t believe they are going to make the Championship, especially since they
were 31-1 (their lone loss was to Texas) and only had 3 games that they didn’t
win by double digits. I also think their
starting lineup fits so well together, especially since they start 4 great
shooters and finishers alongside star Lauren Betts. Betts is so dominant in the paint on both
ends of the court and has improved as a passer out of the post. While Charlisse Leger-Walker and Kiki Rice
are their lead playmakers, they have so many players who can make good passes
in a pinch, including Betts, Gianna Kneepkens, Angela Dugalic, and even
Gabriela Jaquez. While everyone who gets
playing time is at least reliable defensively, everyone is also great at finishing,
which makes them such a beautiful team to watch. I expect that they will give a bunch of teams
a handful as they make their way very far in the tournament.
South
Carolina
It doesn’t feel right to me having South Carolina not making
the Championship, especially since I think Dawn Staley is the best coach in
college basketball, but they are still an excellent team who can go far. Like UCLA, I think their starting lineup fits
really well together and that they all know their role. With this team, they have Joyce Edwards as
the star on both ends while she is the leading scorer due to her high-efficiency
finishing and one of the best defender while providing versatility, Ta’Niya
Latson hunting her shots while also acting as the secondary playmaker, Raven
Johnson as the lead playmaker while causing all sorts of havoc on defense
(there is the case to be made that she is the best defender on the team, which
is a rarity for a guard), Tessa Johnson out there to make every 3 imaginable,
and Madina Okut getting every rebound (she is so good at boxing out). On top of that, all 5 of them are amazing
defenders, as are the bench players who sub in for them. I really do like this team, but it won’t be
the easiest route to the Championship.
Texas
I hate the fact that I have only teams that are 1 seeds
making it to the Final Four because this isn’t that common in either the Men’s
or the Women’s tournaments. The net
rating would indicate that this team is a strong team, as does the defensive
rating, but I have some major concerns.
First off, I am concerned about their reliance on two-point shots during
the tournament, especially since they aren’t a particularly good free throw
shooting team (they also don’t pick up a ton of free throws). Part of this is that their star Madison
Booker somehow just doesn’t get to the line a lot despite shooting a lot inside
the arc, but she has improved her efficiency so much that I’m not worried about
that. If they end up facing a team that
shoots a lot of 3’s, I think they will struggle to win if it becomes a shootout
given the fact that their only player I trust from deep is Jordan Lee, who is also
their only player to shoot above 32% on at least 1 attempt per game, which is
not good; in general, they barely shoot any 3’s. I also am curious how they will fare if they
need stronger rim protection in a game; while they have several strong
defenders, including Booker and Rori Harmon, they don’t have anyone who blocks
a lot of shots. That said, I still think
they are the best team in their region, and they have proven me wrong so
far. While not related to their ability,
an odd stat: the two players with the
highest assist rates on the team (Harmon, 29.4, and Bryanna Preston, 22.7) have
the third and fourth lowest usage rates respectively (15.3 and 16.7), meaning
that they get the most assists out of their opportunities on the court while
also rarely having the ball in their hand compared to their teammates; this
doesn’t matter too much, but it is something that I’m not sure I’ve ever seen.
LSU
It has become a tradition for me to have LSU listed here
because I am terrified that Kim Maulkey will come through the TV and punch me
in the face if I don’t have them here.
That said, I think they are the fourth best team in the tournament (I have
them above Texas personally, but the NCAA would never seed them above Texas
given how much they hold onto the conference tournaments as if a 3-4 game
stretch is more important than a full season).
Unfortunately, I cannot have them making the Final Four because they are
facing UCLA in the Elite Eight. They have
an offensive attack that is balanced among their guards, with 5 guards being
their highest scorers, but is highlighted by the trio of Flau’jae Johnson,
Mikaylah Williams, and bench player MiLaysia Fulwiley, all of whom are good
scorers and shooters (Fulwiley’s jumper can be streaky, but part of that is due
to shot selection) while also being reliable playmakers and ball handlers. The biggest question to me is how their
forwards will handle any matchup against bigs; I think Amiya Joyner is the most
reliable option, though their option largely depended on the matchup throughout
the season. Even if they miss the Final
Four, I think they could be a fun team to watch as far as they go in the tournament.
TCU
While South Carolina has been better than usual from deep, I
have long contended that the best way to beat them is by making a ton of 3’s,
and TCU can (and will) let them fly. Out
of their 6 starters (Taylor Bigby subbed for Maddie Scherr when the latter was
out), 5 attempted at least 3 shots from deep a game, and all of them (Marta
Saurez, Olivia Miles, Donovyn Hunter, Bigby, and Scherr) all shot above
34%. This spacing has also allowed their
2P% to be high since so much is so open.
On top of that, Saurez is a breakout star who is efficient from anywhere
on the court and is versatile as a guard and forward off the ball. Also, did I mention that Olivia Miles is one
of the best players in the country? She
was so dominant this year on both ends in all areas that I think it’s a crime
that she was only 2nd Team All-American, which is insane to say. I don’t think they’d be able to South
Carolina, but I could see them putting up a fight.
Michigan
Look, I don’t actually think Michigan is going to make the
Final Four, but if I think Texas is the least likely to make it, somebody from
their region has to challenge them. Michigan
is the next best team in the region, so we’ll go with them here. While they have a fun lineup that includes a
bunch of guards who make it fun to play at a faster pace, their scoring is a
bit streaky. The key to their offense is
Olivia Olson, who randomly has struggled shooting this year, but is a good
finisher and rebounder, which has allowed her to play the forward position; she
has also held up defensively. They also
have Syla Swords, who is streaky offensively, but is really exciting when she
is on. I wonder how Brooke
Quarles-Daniels will fair given that she is an awesome defender though is very small
for a forward (I’ve seen her listed at 5’6 and 5’7 depending on her size); I
think her success when holding her own against bigger teams will be a
determining factor of how they fare.
Upsets
Gonzaga (12) vs. Mississippi (5)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Mississippi won this game, but
Gonzaga is one of the best shooting teams in the league, whereas Mississippi is
poor at shooting from deep.
Fairfield (11) vs. Notre Dame (6)
This matchup is close; I think Notre Dame’s defense will
struggle against Fairfield’s shooting, but I think this could be a fun shootout.
Tennessee (10) vs. NC State (7)
This game is really close to me, as this could go either
way. I’m leaning Tennessee due to
playing more games against top-25 teams.
Possible
Upsets
1st Round
· UNC (4) vs. Western Illinois (13)
· Oklahoma (4) vs. Idaho (13)
· West Virginia (4) vs. Miami (OH) (13)
· Washington (6) vs. South Dakota State (11)
2nd Round
· Ohio State (3) vs. Fairfield (11)
· Minnesota (4) vs. Gonzaga (12)
· Louisville (3) vs. Alabama (6)
Who do you think will win the tournament? Any games
you are interested in? Let me know in the comments!
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