2026-27 NBA Season Preview/Predictions

After an eventful offseason, the NBA Season is back!  In this preview post, I make my predictions for Standings, Finals matchup, and Awards, as well my analysis for each team.

 

Standings

East

1.      Cleveland Cavaliers

2.      Detroit Pistons

3.      New York Knicks

4.      Boston Celtics

5.      Toronto Raptors

6.      Atlanta Hawks

7.      Philadelphia 76ers

8.      Miami Heat

9.      Indiana Pacers

10.   Orlando Magic

11.   Washington Wizards

12.   Charlotte Hornets

13.   Brooklyn Nets

14.   Chicago Bulls

15.   Milwaukee Bucks

 

West

1.      Oklahoma City Thunder

2.      San Antonio Spurs

3.      Houston Rockets

4.      Los Angeles Lakers

5.      Denver Nuggets

6.      Minnesota Timberwolves

7.      Utah Jazz

8.      Portland Trail Blazers

9.      Phoenix Suns

10.   Dallas Mavericks

11.   Memphis Grizzlies

12.   Golden State Warriors

13.   New Orleans Pelicans

14.   Los Angeles Clippers

15.   Sacramento Kings

 

Finals

I used to do an entire playoff prediction, but I changed this due to how insane it felt; now, I just do the Finals Predictions.  This shouldn’t come as a shock, especially since I think that only 3 teams are strong contenders at this time: OKC and the two teams that made the finals.

Winner: Oklahoma City beats New York, 4-1

 

Awards

As ridiculous as I find it to predict the awards, I made my predictions and included them here.

 

Most Valuable Player

1.      Victor Wembanyama, SAS

2.      Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC

3.      Nikola Jokic, DEN

4.      Donovan Mitchell, CLE

5.      Luka Doncic, LAL

Due to a stupid thing that voters have called voter fatigue, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is unlikely to receive MVP for a third straight year even if he is the best player, and Nikola Jokic is unlikely to receive a fourth MVP due to voters being afraid of considering him among the all-time greats despite the fact that he is an all-time great.  As such, that leaves Victor Wembanyama, who will probably be the next best option and a dominant force assuming he plays enough games.  I think SGA will finish ahead of Jokic due to the teams record, but that could be close again.  I have Mitchell finishing fourth due to where I project Cleveland finishing and how good of a season I expect him to have.  Doncic is typically a safe option for the top-5 as long as the team he plays for is good.  Some other options include Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, Scottie Barnes, Jalen Brunson, Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jalen Johnson.

 

Rookie of the Year

1.      Cameron Boozer, MEM

2.      AJ Dybantsa, WAS

3.      Darryn Peterson, UTA

The Rookie of the Year is usually a balance of opportunities, reputation, and winning (if it’s close between a few players).  I think that Boozer has the clearest path to getting a lot of stats on a team that could surprise people, so I think that he is the best bet.  While he won’t be the primary option in Washington, I think that Dybantsa will still have opportunities and play very well.  I was torn between Peterson and Caleb Wilson; while Wilson will have more shot attempts, I think Peterson is better at this moment and will be more efficient than Wilson while playing for a better team.  Some other options include Caleb Wilson, Yaxel Lendeborg, Darius Acuff, and Keaton Wagler.

 

Defensive Player of the Year

1.      Victor Wembanyama, SAS

2.      Chet Holmgren, OKC

3.      Evan Mobley, CLE

If Wembanyama plays enough games, this is a shoo-in, with the potential for him to be a unanimous winner.  It’s usually big men who win this, and I think Holmgren and Mobley are both two of the best players who could also be the anchors of two of the best defensive teams.  Honestly, it feels like it is a fight for second since Wemby likely has this locked up.  Other possibilities include Scottie Barnes, Amen Thomspon, Ausar Thompson, Derrick White, Rudy Gobert, Bam Adebayo, Cason Wallace, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

 

Sixth Man of the Year

1.      Ayo Dosunmu, MIN

2.      Ajay Mitchell, OKC

3.      Bobby Portis, MIA

Usually the Sixth Man of the Year award goes to either a high volume bench scorer or a guy who starts a bunch of games.  I think Dosunmu will fulfill the second requirement while also scoring a decent amount; I also could see him finishing a bunch of games if Jonathan Kuminga is a tough fit, which will boost his stock.  Mitchell and Portis are both great scorers off the bench who will help out their teams and get a lot of opportunities offensively.  Some other options include Sam Merrill, Collin Sexton, Obi Toppin, Keldon Johnson, Sam Hauser, Collin Murray-Boyles, Isaiah Stewart, Reed Sheppard, and Anfernee Simons.  Some players who could be worthy who I think could start too many games include Dylan Harper, CJ McCollum, Anthony Black, Jrue Holiday, Neemias Queta, and Jerami Grant

 

Most Improved Player

1.      Walker Kessler, LAL

2.      Donovan Clingan, POR

3.      Zach Edey, MEM

Predicting this award is kind of silly since this award usually goes to someone who played better than anyone expected, but here we are.  Kessler has the best opportunity to improve because he has a lot of opportunities playing alongside Luka Doncic on offense and defending behind Doncic and Austin Reaves.  Clingan’s best case is the fact that he could lead the league in rebounds with some inconsistent shooters on his team and lead the league in blocks with some inconsistent defenders on his team.  I think Edey will have a very good season this year; while he has been good when healthy, I think a lot of people have treated his NBA career thus far as a bust, so having a good year could help his cause.  Some other options include Brandin Podziemski, Alex Sarr, Oso Ighodaro, Cason Wallace, Christian Braun, and Jonathan Kuminga.

 

Coach of the Year

1.      Ime Udoka, HOU

2.      Kenny Atkinson, CLE

3.      Will Hardy, UTA

 

This is another award that is silly to predict since it usually goes to the coach of the team that surprises the most people, but here we are.  I don’t think people are high on Houston, but I think they’ll be great, including on defense, so I think Udoka will be up there.  I also think Cleveland will be a great this year, so Atkinson will likely be a serious candidate.  If Utah is better than I predict, Hardy will probably win, but otherwise he’ll still be a finalist.  Some other candidates include Mark Daignault, JJ Redick, Darko Rajakovic, J.B. Bickerstaff, Mitch Johnson, and Quin Snyder.

 

All-NBA

First Team

1.      Victor Wembanyama, SAS

2.      Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC

3.      Nikola Jokic, DEN

4.      Donovan Mitchell, CLE

5.      Luka Doncic, LAL

Second Team

1.      Cade Cunningham, DET

2.      Anthony Edwards, MIN

3.      Scottie Barnes, TOR

4.      Jalen Brunson, NYK

5.      Jayson Tatum, BOS

Third Team

1.      Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIA

2.      Jalen Johnson, ATL

3.      Jalen Williams, OKC

4.      Evan Mobley, CLE

5.      Kevin Durant, HOU

 

All-Defense

First Team

1.      Victor Wembanyama, SAS

2.      Chet Holmgren, OKC

3.      Evan Mobley, CLE

4.      Scottie Barnes, TOR

5.      Amen Thomspon, HOU

Second Team

1.      Ausar Thompson, DET

2.      Derrick White, BOS

3.      Rudy Gobert, MIN

4.      Bam Adebayo, MIA

5.      Cason Wallace, OKC

 

All-Rookie

First Team

1.      Cameron Boozer, MEM

2.      AJ Dybantsa, WAS

3.      Darryn Peterson, UTA

4.      Caleb Wilson, CHI

5.      Yaxel Lendeborg, GSW

Second Team

1.      Darius Acuff, SAC

2.      Keaton Wagler, LAC

3.      Hannes Steinbach, CHO

4.      Brayden Burries, MIL

5.      Cameron Carr, LAL

 

Analysis

The analysis is my favorite part of this blog post, but I put it at the end because I know a lot of people don’t care about it.  Due to time constraints with writing, I only included a brief description of each team and a range for where they could finish.

 

East

1: Cleveland Cavaliers

I am sure that many would consider this selection to be the most egregious selection as a 1 seed, but I think this team is primed for regular season success.  First off, their top-4 are largely healthy, which is very important for regular season success.  On top of that, while their depth isn’t amazing, they have a lot of players who can provide 10 MPG, which is sneakily important in the regular season.  Possibly most importantly, there is the feeling that this will be the last hurrah for this team; while there are times where that doesn’t work out, I think this will pan out well.  Even in a season that felt like a disappointing regular season, Cleveland still finished as the 4 seed.  On top of that, even while they made the Conference Finals, they stumbled into it and then was unceremoniously swept; there must be a feeling that they still have something to prove.  I also wonder if coach Kenny Atkinson is feeling any pressure after last season not going as well.

Range: I’d be shocked if they miss the playoffs and will probably make it without playing in the Play-In, but I wouldn’t bat an eye if they were anywhere from 1^st through 6^th.

 

2: Detroit Pistons

I get that the poor playoff performance is still in everyone’s mind, and while it was bad, they were so good in the regular season.  While there is the possibility for some regression, I believe Detroit is better suited for the regular season than the playoffs.  There was a lot of focus on their shooting (for reference, they were average in 3P%, but ranked near the bottom in attempts), I think their defense is more important for the regular season.  They don’t have a ton of bad defenders and are physical, which makes it more difficult for opponents to go against in January.  While they mad some good moves this offseason (bringing in Isaiah Joe) and some mixed moves (I’m not sure that effectively subbing John Collins for Tobias Harris is great), the biggest question is whether Jalen Duren has any hard feelings about the contract negotiations; I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s worth watching.  Either way, as long as Cade Cunningham is healthy and playing at an MVP-candidate level and Duren is amazing, they should still be great.

Range: I think they will be a top-6 team, though it’s possible that they slip if the offense is stagnant or if there are conflicts that I don’t anticipate.

 

3: New York Knicks

After winning the championship last year, the Knicks should be contending for another title and are likely the favorites to make it to the Championship out of the East.  While there is a lot of focus on contract negotiations and losing Mitchell Robinson, their team is still going to be good.  They kept their entire starting lineup that worked so well with each other over the last couple of seasons when healthy and have several nice bench players (albeit most of their top bench players are guards/wings, which could be tough to fit all of them).  I think they won’t necessarily try to be the 1 seed in the regular season and instead favor being ready for the playoffs.  I am a little wary of health since OG Anunoby and Josh Hart have dealt with injuries over their career, though Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Mikal Bridges (who is an iron man) don’t often suffer serious injuries.  It’s also worth noting that contract negotiations stalling could play a role, but I still think they will be great.

Range: I think they will make sure that they get home court in the first round.  It’s possible that they end up being the 1 seed, but I think they’re better suited for the playoffs, where I think they are best positioned in the East.

 

4: Boston Celtics

After a surprise season last year and an even more surprising trade where Jaylen Brown was traded for Paul George and picks, it’s fair to question Boston’s ceiling, though I expect they will still be a top-6 team.  A lot of people are predicting the Celtics are going to go far in the playoffs, but I think they are better suited to be a regular season team, especially due to their depth.  If Jayson Tatum is back and is healthy, I think they have a floor of a top-6 team.  I also think Derrick White could have a bounce back season after a year where he couldn’t hit any shots (though he was deep).  I think Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta is an exciting platoon combo at center that improves the team.  I’m not sure if they will start Payton Pritchard (I would) or go with a wing to give more size in the starting lineup and a better playmaker off the bench; if Pritchard comes off the bench, he will likely win his second Sixth Man of the Year.  I also think that Paul George will be a nice fit for them, especially since there will be times when he is their 4^th option.  While I’ve questioned his decisions at times, Joe Mazulla is an amazing coach who appeared to gain 10 years of experience in one season last year (he was seriously that much better as a coach last year).  Even without Jaylen Brown, I think they’ll be good, though I think they’re second-round good instead of Championship good.

Range: I think they will finish in the top-6.

 

5: Toronto Raptors

I don’t really get why so many people appear so much lower on Toronto than I do.  I know that trading for Kawhi Leonard is a risk, but they were a very good team last season who is very deep and has the potential for several players to improve this year.  Acting like Leonard, who is still an elite player when healthy (I know, it’s a bit of an if), is the only way that Toronto is going to be good is disrespectful to Scottie Barnes, who might be the best talent that Leonard has played with during their primes (please note that I am not saying that Scottie Barnes isn’t the best player he’s played with, especially since Leonard played with multiple Hall of Famers, but most of these guys weren’t as good as Barnes is right now).  I also think it’s worth highlighting that RJ Barrett has suddenly become an efficient scorer from 2 since arriving in Toronto, which is fun to see.  There are still questions about this team regard who is going to start at the center spot (I expect Jakob Poeltl will start, though watch out for Collin Muraay-Boyles) and point guard (it is still Immanuel Quickley, but I wonder if Jamal Shaed or Ja’Kobe Walter can improve).  Even with all of those, I think Toronto will be a good team this year.

Range: I’m high on this team and think they will be a top-6 team; while it’s possible that they are in the Play-In, I think it’s more likely that they are a top-4 team.

 

6: Atlanta Hawks

I understand why people would disagree, but I feel like I am high on this team compared to consensus.  I believe what happened last year after the Trae Young trade and believe that they’re just so deep, which will help out immensely in the regular season.  They had a top-10 defense and acquired Lu Dort and Dorian Finney-Smith without giving up much to get them, so I think their defense will be better, especially without having to trot Young and his lack of defense onto the court.  I’m not 100% sure that they have a second star alongside Jalen Johnson at this time, although Nickeil Alexander-Walker made a tempting case after an amazing year last season.  I could see them struggling in the playoffs unless everyone takes a step forward, but I think this team is primed for regular season success and could finish even higher than this.

Range: Anywhere from 1^st through 10^th.  I believe in what happened last year, so I have them as a top-6 seed, but any sort of slippage could cause them to be in the Play-In.  I don’t expect them to miss the Play-In.

 

7: Philadelphia 76ers

I’m not quite sure what to do with this team due to how much the team has changed and how much the team will need to adjust.  There was rightfully a lot of attention for their acquisitions of Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, two players who are obviously stars.  The obvious question is how a starting lineup of Brown, James, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecomb will fit, especially given each of their on-ball talent.  On offense, I think it will work due to the IQ of each player, but it will take some time for each player to get used to choosing when they can be on the ball.  While some focus would be on the lack of natural catch-and-shoot ability from this quintet, I think the cutting ability is something that can be used.  Defense could be more interesting due to the skillsets.  Maxey is not a good defender, Embiid is best used as a drop defender with limited movement, and James is turning 42 in December, so it isn’t reasonable to expect him to try hard on that end on every play and still be able to contribute more than 15 MPG.  Between Brown and Edgecomb, Edgecomb is a better point of attack defender on the ball, but Brown isn’t as focused when defending off the ball, making that an interesting juxtaposition.  I think both ends will need a lot of testing, which could be tough given health.  I really like their depth in terms of both how many players they have and how different players compliment each other.  The only reason I have them in 7^th is because it will take time for this team to acclimate, but the East is deep enough that a slow start could hurt them severely.

Range: I think they will make the Play-In at worst; if they figure things out quickly, then they will be a top-6 team.

 

8: Miami Heat

I’m not sure what to do with Miami solely because I’m not sure how quick the transition will be on offense.  While they are certainly a better team than they were last year, I expect the East will be deeper and less forgiving this year.  While the price was high (as it is with any superstar), I think Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to fit very well in Miami due to his driving, playmaking, and defense.  I could see a Giannis-Bam Adebayo pairing a little clunky on offense at first, especially if Andrew Wiggins or Davion Mitchell go through a tough stretch from deep (while both are solid shooters and should get a lot of easy looks, there could be times that this happens).  I could see the offense taking a quarter of the season to figure out; normally this would lock them into a top-4 seed, but the East is deep this year.  I think they will be excellent defensively immediately; I am really excited to see the Giannis-Bam pairing on defense, as I think that this could be one of the best defensive duos in the league.  There has been a lot of focus on Giannis’ health after the trade, but he has been healthy for at least 65 games most seasons except for last year (when Milwaukee was also likely interested in holding him out).  I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up finishing as a top-4 team, but I think it could take some time; if they’re able to figure things out by the end of the year, next year will probably be very good if everyone is healthy.

Range: I think they’ll make the Play-In at worst; I also wouldn’t be surprised if they finish as a top-6 team.

 

9: Indiana Pacers

This might sound like I am low on the Pacers, but I do think they could be very good; the only reason that I have them so low is because I don’t know how they will look after several players are returning from injuries.  The biggest thing to watch will be how Tyrese Haliburton will look after missing an entire season from a torn Achilles; he’s been solid in preseason, but I think it’s possible that there will be a curve needed to get back to himself.  There are several players who dealt with injuries as well, so I think we will need to see how everyone is.  I think that the team has multiple stars (in addition to Haliburton, I think Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac will be awesome), has a talented starting lineup, and is very deep.  There will also likely be an adjustment period for Ivica Zubac to be their center after years of Myles Turner (who is close to the opposite of what Zubac is).  I think the 9^th place seeding is due to how deep I expect the East will be; if they adjust quicker than I expect, then they likely will be a top-6 team.

Range: It all depends on health; if they’re healthy, they could be a top-4 team; if they’re not, they could miss the Play-In.

 

10: Orlando Magic

At this point, I don’t know what to make of this team anymore.  It feels like it should work on paper, but the offense is consistently disappointing.  In theory, they should be better on defense than they were last season, but I start questioning how real any of this can be due to health and fit.  I think it’s safe to wonder if Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner are injury prone players who you have to assume will be hurt.  On top of that, as long as Wagner and Paolo Banchero cannot consistently hit 3’s, there isn’t a path to being a great offense with their projected starting lineup, especially with Suggs having an inconsistent jumper and Wendell Carter’s jumper having seemingly vanished.  Having a new voice in charge in Sean Sweeney might help, but there is also a better East, and I think it will be a tough season for them unless everyone is healthy for a change.

Range: They could get home court advantage in the first round or they could miss the Play-In; while I think it will be in between, I expect it will be closer to the latter.

 

11: Washington Wizards

I don’t know what to make of this team.  If things go right, I could see them being a playoff team, but there are a lot of ways things could go wrong.  None of their young guys have experience being on a team that isn’t a winning team, Trae Young had more instances being on an 8-seed or worse than on a 7-seed or better, and Anthony Davis is never healthy.  I think they will be better than they were last year, but I don’t see this being a smooth path in a loaded Eastern Conference.  A lot of their young players look like they are ready to take a jump and have proven to be good, but rookie AJ Dybantsa is the only one with star potential, and he’s still a rookie; it’s also worth seeing how willing Young and Davis are to allowing a young player to be the star over them, especially since Young has never had success playing alongside anyone who operated best on the ball.  This could be a weird team.

Range: They could finish as a playoff team without playing in the Play-In or they could finish as low as 12^th; it really is a wide range with them.

 

12: Charlotte Hornets

While Charlotte looked better in the second half of last year, I think they will feel the loss of LaMelo Ball.  I know that Ball was often hurt, but he was healthy last year and the offense was bad without him on the court.  While Coby White is a great player, he isn’t as good as Ball is; they really need Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel to be better this year, especially at creating their own looks.  They have a bunch of solid players, though they need several of them to take a jump and improve if they want to be better than this spot.  That said, they shouldn’t be a bottom 3 team, and there will likely be promise for the team going forward, which should be the biggest goal with this team.

Range: I think their range is from 6-12.  I think lower is better.

 

13: Brooklyn Nets

While Brooklyn has struggled over the last few seasons, they are making progress, especially as their younger players improve.  Additionally, I could see them not being as worried about finishing near the bottom to get a draft pick, so coach Jose Fernandez will hopefully be able to coach, which is good since I think he is a good coach.  Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle are both All-Star level talents, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they put up a bunch of numbers and end up willing them to some bonus wins.  While he will have inconsistencies as a rookie, Mikel Brown Jr. is a talent who could end up being a very good player if not All-Star in the future.  Besides them, Egor Denim (who was really good, especially as a shooter, which I didn’t expect), Keon Ellis, Terance Mann, Noah Clowny, and Day’Ron Sharpe, I’m not really sure who will get a ton of playing time since all 15 of their guys could play.  They have several young players who were at least interesting and showed glimpses, so this year will likely help clarify who is in their rotation going forward.  Brooklyn could be interesting this year; I’m curious to see if they outperform my expectations.

Range: I expect they will miss the Play-In, but they have the upside to sneak into the 10^th seed if a couple teams struggle and they play well.

 

14: Chicago Bulls

The bad news for Chicago fans is that this team will probably be bad this year.  The good news for Chicago fans is that they realized that it makes sense to develop their young players, multiple of whom have upside, most notably Caleb Wilson and Matas Buzelis.  I think that bringing in Tiago Splitter is a good move since he did such a good job in Portland, especially with optimizing and empowering the young players on the roster.  They have a ton of size, which will be fun to watch, especially if they convert that into versatility.  I am interested to see who plays and the development of some of their young players.  Still, it’s entirely possible that they come in last.  As a side bar, can we give a tribute to Nic Claxton?  Every year, I write about how sad it is that he’s stuck in Brooklyn, and he finally gets out of there to end up in Chicago.

Range: I would be surprised if they make the Play-In.

 

15: Milwaukee Bucks

Now that Giannis Antetokounmpo and family are no longer in Milwaukee (they literally went from 3 Antetokounmpos to 0), Milwaukee is entering a rebuild that will probably be brutal to start, especially if an investigation into Gary Trent Jr.’s insane contract comes up with anything.  I’m honestly not even sure who will start/finish games or who even plays on this team, so it will be a wild ride for everyone.  The good news is that they have some interesting young talent, as Ryan Rollins (if they can convince him to stay after this season), Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Brayden Burries, Nate Ament, Jaime Jaquez, and Ousmane Dieng are all 25 or younger and could be interesting to have long-term.  In the meantime, expect Tyler Herro to try to lead the league in scoring, Kyle Kuzma to try to lead the league in scoring but instead lead the league in missed shots, Rollins to try to lead the league in disgusted looks at what the team is doing, the Bucks to try to lead the league in trade calls surrounding one player (Myles Turner), and their rookies to wonder if this is what it’s like to be on an NBA team.

Range: If they make the Play-In, I would assume that Pope Leo became a Bucks fan and blessed them.

 

 

West

1: Oklahoma City Thunder

I understand that a lot of people will have San Antonio ahead of OKC, but Oklahoma City finished 1^st while winning 64 games despite Jalen Williams playing only 33 games and not playing anywhere near the All-NBA level he played at the year before.  I get that they lost depth, most notably Lu Dort, who is an amazing defender and was a great teammate, but I think that there is talent ready to make the jump.  OKC has been excellent at finding talent who are ready to make the jump, so they should have players ready to take a step forward.  This is the one team that I am not worried about injuries with since they have won so many games while dealing with injuries over the last three seasons.

Range: I expect that they will be a top-2 team.  I think it’ll take a lot of injuries for them to fall lower than 3^rd.

 

2: San Antonio Spurs

After making the Finals last season, I think they will be competing for it again this year.  They were deep last year, and I think they got even deep this season.  A lot of their young guys have continued to improve much more rapidly than I expected; their young core is already so good.  I also think it’s important that their comments this offseason have indicated that they are interested in winning in the regular season, which is important for their development (that feels similar to how the Thunder have played).  The most important part of their success is Victor Wembanyama’s health; he has had two seasons impacted by different health issues, so I hope this is not the new norm.  If he is healthy, this team will be awesome, though they have some interesting questions about starters, especially with their guards.

Range: Unless they deal with injuries (especially to Victor Wembanyama), they should be a top-2 team.

 

3: Houston Rockets

This might sound rich to have them this high, but Houston won 52 games 2 years ago and then won 52 games against last year without their starting point guard (Fred VanVleet).  I think they are going to be a great regular season team again due to their defensive ability, which usually bodes well in the regular season.  I have questions about their playoff upside due to their inconsistencies on offense (to say the least), but it makes sense to expect VanVleet’s return will at least help to stabilize their offense, which they desperately need.  I think their offense will hold them back on some games, but that will come back to bite them in the playoffs much more than in the regular season.

Range: I think they should make the playoffs no problem.  I think it will be tough to crack the top-2, but I expect they will be a top-6 team.

 

4: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers might look like the most different team compared to last year, but I think they will be at least good.  I will confess that I don’t know what the starting or closing lineups will be (Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and Walker Kessler are locks, but the other two spots are up for grab), but I think Doncic and Reaves are enough to make them a good team.  The contracts they gave out were interesting (more so due to the fact that every contract was 3-4 years and many had player options), but I think a lot of the players they acquired are underrated.  I don’t think they acquired a guy who can be a 3^rd option (I think that would help the Doncic-Reaves combo), but I think they are so deep on other guys that this is okay.  I also think we could see a big year from Kessler playing alongside by far the best playmaker he has ever played with in Doncic.

Range: I expect they will be a top-6 team, likely in the 3-6 range.

 

5: Denver Nuggets

In their desperate quest to avoid the second apron, Denver has lost a ton of depth over the last few seasons, which puts them in a bit of a precarious situation.  On one hand, they have superstar Nikola Jokic and last season’s All-NBA guard Jamal Murray, but they also have very little depth after their starting lineup.  3 of their starters have dealt with multiple injuries throughout their career (Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Cam Johnson) and another dealt with serious injuries last season (Christian Braun), so they really need a reliable depth.  The problem is that they don’t seem to trust a lot of their young guys (to their credit, many have been inconsistent), so they’re really going to have to put a lot of weight in either unproven guys or guys who might not fit great.  With all of that, they still have Jokic, who is almost always healthy and is one of the best players in the NBA, so he will likely drag them to the playoffs.

Range: I’m not sure since it all depends on health.  If Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are healthy, they’re the easiest case to be the 3-seed; if neither are, they could slip into the Play-In, even with a healthy Nikola Jokic.

 

6: Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota is in an interesting situation because they have so much top-level talent, but are also so thin.  I think that Donte DiVincenzo would have helped, but I wouldn’t predict him playing much (maybe at the end of the season) given that he has an Achilles tear.  This team has never appeared to take the regular season all that seriously, but I think that they need to if they want to guarantee a playoff spot without being in the Play-In.  They made some big risks this offseason centered around trading for LaMelo Ball, which raises their ceiling but also lowers their floor.

Range: Anywhere from 3^rd through 12^th.  I know that’s insane, but there’s potential for things to go wrong, especially if they’re not focused during the regular season.

 

7: Utah Jazz

Utah feels primed to make a jump this season.  I know that they have struggled over the past few seasons, but they now are motivated to start winning more, especially considering the fact that the team is ready.  They have a deep team that has a few All-Star level players and several guys who can contribute in major ways.  I don’t think they’re as top heavy as a lot of the teams in the league, but I think the depth and talent will be good enough to make it back to the playoffs.  If Darryn Peterson ends up being ready to be a star immediately (which I don’t think is fair to expect from a rookie) and Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson, and Keyonte George are willing to slide into the roles of second through fourth option, this team will be even better than I project, but that might be a next year goal.

Range: I think they at least make the Play-In, though it’s possible they just miss it; I also think it’s possible that they end up with home court advantage (likely as a 3-seed), but I think there will be good odds of them making the playoffs.

 

8: Portland Trail Blazers

I was admittedly torn between having them 8^th or 9^th, but ultimately landed with them here.  There are many things to be excited about in Portland, including making the playoffs again last season and having a bunch of exciting young players.  The problems are that ownership is not doing themselves any favors, they have a new coach after seemingly not being willing to pay their amazing interim head coach in Tiago Splitter, and their lineup this year is likely going to be very clunky due to overlapping talent.  I think the best way that I can put it is that they have over $95M in 4 guards (Ja Morant, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson) this year and another $13.125M in a player who operates best on the ball (Deni Avdija).  I think it would probably be a little easier if Shaedon Sharpe wasn’t injured since that would give more depth on the wing (that likely clarifies a starting role for Toumani Camara), but it’s going to be crowded with a lot of ball handling and not enough shooting.  On the plus side, Donovan Clingan is an amazing rebounder, so he’ll probably be the busiest man on the offensive glass.

Range: While they could be in the playoffs while avoiding the Play-In or miss the Play-In entirely, I think 7-10 is the most realistic range for them.

 

9: Phoenix Suns

I was torn on whether to have them 8^th or 9^th, but I think that Portland’s upside is a little higher than Phoenix’s, so Phoenix is 9^th.  I think that they have a nice lineup and a good coach, so it’s possible that they end up in the top-6.  The biggest reason I have them lower than I want to is because the team continues to think that Devin Booker is a point guard instead of a shooting guard; while he is a good point guard, that isn’t his natural position, especially since he is an elite shooting guard.  The reason they keep doing this is because they are adamant on starting Jalen Green for some reason, even though I think they are better off starting Collin Gillespie for the sake of the team.  The other thing that I am concerned about is that Mark Williams is out indefinitely due to a torn labrum, so they will need a jump from Oso Ighodaro or Khaman Maluach to start at center in his stead.  That said, Miles Bridges is an interesting addition, as is Luke Kennard.  I also don’t know if Dillon Brooks can repeat what he did last year as an offensive player, but he is a great player for them.  There are a lot of younger guys who could improve also.  I think there is a lot of good with this team, though they’re probably in the Play-In range for this year.

Range: They could sneak into a top-6 seed, they could also fall to the 11^th seed; I think being in the Play-In is the most likely outcome.

 

10: Dallas Mavericks

I know that they have been in the wilderness a bit ever since trading Luka Doncic, but I think they’re starting to get on the right path, especially as Cooper Flagg continues to develop.  I think that Flagg is going to especially make a jump with Kyrie Irving returning, as this allows Flagg to not be forced into a point guard role like he was last year.  If they are able to get Derrick Lively healthy, that would be essential, but they can’t necessarily count on that at this point in his career sadly.  I thought they got a lot deeper this offseason and hired a coach with a ton of upside.  I still think that they are a year or two away from being clear playoff contenders, but they are also clearly improving significantly.  I think Dallas has figured out what they are doing, even if it took a new front office and coach to get there.

Range: I think they’ll at least compete for the Play-In; they could make the playoffs, though I think it’s safer to have them in this range for now.

 

11: Memphis Grizzlies

I think that Memphis has the potential to be a sneaky good team.  They have so much depth (so much so that they had to cut guys who I would have expected would get playing time because they had too many players on their roster), which will benefit them in the middle of the season when depth is so valuable.  I also think that their core of rookie Cam Boozer, Zac Edey, and Cedric Coward will be interesting; even if Edey and Coward end up being more like the third or fourth guys on a great team in the long-term, I think both are going to be very good players.  I also think that they have enough veterans who have been on good teams who will be nice supporting cast members and leaders; I especially think the addition of Isaiah Stewart will do wonders.  I don’t think they will make the playoffs this year, but I would bet on them competing for the Play-In.

Range: I think they’ll be 8-12.  It’s possible that they’re a little above this range or below it (especially if there are injuries), but I think they’ll compete for the Play-In.

 

12: Golden State Warriors

This might seem really low, but I don’t understand how there can be any optimistic with this team.  We already knew that Jimmy Butler was going to miss a good chunk of the season while recovering from injury and Moses Moody was going to miss the entire year, but now Kristaps Porzingis is out with an undisclosed illness.  Stephen Curry is still a superstar at the age of 38, so expect a lot of the offense to run through him, but there is a slight problem: what do they do when he’s not on the court?  The plan would have been Butler, who is going to miss time, but what if he’s not the same coming back from his injury given that he is 37?  Also, Curry has dealt with injuries, so he will likely miss time.  Even if he’s healthy, who will run the offense when he’s on the bench?  Will it be Draymond Green?  He doesn’t shoot anymore, so maybe not.  Will it be either Brandin Podziemski or Yaxel Lendeborg?  That probably won’t go well.  Will it be 40-year-old Al Horford?  That’s the point where we’re at.  Even while Green is an amazing defender and Podziemski and Lendeborg will have runway, there aren’t that many clear starting level players who are healthy; they have a bunch of fun bench guys, but they’re all 9^th guys playing the role of 6^th guys.

Range: I think they range 8-12, but I think it will be difficult for them to make the Play-In and even more difficult to make the playoffs; everything will have to go right for that to happen.

 

13: New Orleans Pelicans

This team has been sad and confusing for a few years due to the difference between the quality of their players and how they fit, and I expect this year to be similar.  I think the best way that I can put it with fit is that Zion Williamson was pegged as their franchise guy prior, so they want him to be either great to be that or good enough to trade, and Derik Queen is a young lottery pick who they want to build around (especially since he had a nice rookie year), but the two of them on the court together is a horrible pairing that already doesn’t work.  They have several mid-career veterans and several young guys, but I think it’s clunky since there’s several guys who either want to shoot, can’t shoot, or both, making it tough to fit guys together on offense.  On top of that, several of their players are injury prone, making it tough to know who will get minutes.  When it reaches the point where Trey Murphy, who is a great player but not a superstar, might be their most valuable player due to his 2-way talent and his shooting ability, which probably isn’t great that he’s the most important player on the team (not because he isn’t a potential All-Star level talent, but because his archetype doesn’t lend himself to be an MVP on a winning team).  Having Dejounte Murray for a full season can definitely help, as another year of experience for Queen, Jeremiah Fears, and Yves Missi, but I cannot be optimistic about this team.

Range: They could compete for the Play-In, but I have my doubts given the fact that they were bad last season despite being largely healthy.

 

14: Los Angeles Clippers

The last year has gone about as horribly as it could for a franchise: Pablo Torre reported they committed cap circumvention to acquire Kawhi Leonard (I would recommend listening to all his podcast episodes regarding it; his discoveries kept getting more insane), they gave up on trying to win, they got a stiff punishment for the cap circumvention, and now are dealing with several injuries, including Brandon Ingram, Yanic Konan Niederhäuser, Max Strus, and Jordan Miller.  Don’t expect them to be good; they could come in last, but I have them finishing 14^th.

Range: If they make the Play-In, that would be the biggest surprise of the season.

 

15: Sacramento Kings

Let’s be honest, this will be rough this year.  The good news is that they are not as old or expensive as they were last year; the bad news is that they are still stuck with several players they can’t get rid of because nobody wants their contracts at this time.  They have a few promising young players (I am especially high on Darius Acuff), which is a good sign for them, but they also have to be willing to not fire everyone upon hitting a bump after finding the only success they’ve had in years (that backfired a bit).  While all their stars, former stars, and higher contract players are injury prone, it might not be the worst thing to have them injured to give the younger guys more minutes.  Their bet for finishing higher is Domantas Sabonis, who has a high floor in the regular season, performs incredibly well and drags them all the way to…maybe 13^th?  Either way, they’re going to be bad.

Range: The only way they make the Play-In is if something goes very wrong for multiple other teams and very right for several players on this team.

 

 

What do you think will happen this year?  Who do you think will win the Championship?  Are there any predictions you disagree with me on?  Let me know in the comments!